Since we’ve had the #1 seed locked for a while, seems like it’s hard to put a finger on how seriously or not seriously these last games have meant to this team. I’ll start with the things that matter: 1) Rest/Rust - If Dantoni wants to keep his players “sharp” this doesn’t really seem to be working. The last 10 games have produced some sketchy performances (Detroit, Phoenix, Spurs, Thunder, Blazers). Two of those were losses but to teams playing for more than the Rockets were. They look like they’re just going through the motions at times. It’s a little contradictory to the purpose of playing these guys. 2) The Has Beens - I’ll lump Nene and JJo here. They have both lost multiple steps to their games. Nene has been obvious all year. He can’t finish at the rim and routinely missed layups, elbow jumpers and free throws that he used to be decent at. I think this is why this board was so interested by the Wright signing. Joe simply looks lost. He goes into his patented post up offense too quickly resulting in a miss and I can count on one hand the threes I’ve actually seen him make. 3) Free Throws: Harden, Gordon, Capela, Nene....what’s going on here? At this point watching us at the line is a nerve wracking experience. Tired legs? 4) Capela Physicality: Against Nurkic and Adams, this is a problem. Capela just can’t bang with these guys and has a tendency to get in his head, resulting in missed gimmes at the basket. Blazers will not be on our side of the bracket but in a WCF this could be an issue. Will definitely be an issue vs Thunder if they meet us. 5) Ryno: Been talked about ad nauseum. If Ryno would just have the trigger finger of Gerald Green this team would be better. I’ve kind of given up on him at this point as he just seems to be permanently stuck in a Asik2.0Pouting.exe program. 6) Foul Drawing: It’s part of our game. But as we saw yesterday, if the zebras ain’t calling it then you can physically see the Rockets get frustrated and not get back on defense. They need to be better about recognizing the type of game being called and adjust accordingly. Things can snowball quickly in the playoffs if your game plan isn’t going right. 7) Traps/Turnovers: This one confuses me. The Rockets have been great at passing out of the trap, this happened often at the end of the Blazers game and if we just could hit some routine 3s then the game wouldn’t have been a total meltdown. But last night we got back into this habit (Gerald passing it straight to Russ in crunch time, Harden getting pick pocketed by Russ). Last few games the Rockets look like a deer in the headlights when the trap inevitably comes. Harden being picked up full court makes him uncomfortable as well. This all might be a team just coasting until the playoffs (cept for Ryno) but they’ve been concerning for sure these last 10 games. Any others y’all can think of?
Things like turnovers, missed free throws, giving up offensive rebounds, poor execution, etc are an indicator of a lack of focus. I’ve seen more lazy passes from this team in the past several games than I have all season. They’re ready for the playoffs and are just going through the motions for these games.
The only thing that might be worrying is if they don't figure out how to play against 2 types of defense that seemed to slowdown the offense: the Spurs style by not switching and letting big men back in the paint the double teaming of Harden if the Rockets are true championship contenders i'm sure they'll find solutions to this
Honestly, this is how I would play the Rockets. Pick Harden up full court, and double him once he crosses the half court line. Ill try and see if Ariza, Tucker can beat us with threes. Harden and the Rockets do nothing to add to his game when they are harassing him. He doesn't run off picks to get free, or move around for that matter. So once I get the ball out his hand, the battle is won. I hope I'm wrong, but i have had this conversation all year that their style of play is not made for the playoffs. No movement without the ball at all, besides the occasional corner picks.
If Ryno & EGO are healthy for the Playoffs, I won’t be too concerned. They are vast upgrades over JJo & Green (who I love, but if he’s not hitting threes then he’s a big net negative IMO). My main concern is the Capela/Nene rotation - Nene looks 5 steps slow, and Capela just seems to be running on fumes. This shouldn’t be a major concern in RD1 but we don’t match up great with Utah & OKC. Going to be a touch Playoffs no matter who we face off against, lets hope EGO, Ryno, & Capela gets some rest, Nene remembers he’s BD Nene, and the Rockets figure out how to effectively pass out of the double.
The Rockets are 8-2 in their last 10 and they would likely be 10-0 if they were meaningful games. None of the elite teams with locked in playoff seeding have done better than 5-5. There are no new concerns. Protect the ball (win the turnover battle), go to the line and shoot and hit 3’s.... the Rockets do this and they are close to unbeatable against anyone. The turnover battle is especially important. Capela is mediocre against certain match ups, but this isn’t anything new. He had worked hard and improved every year but he is still largely a product of the Rockets system and Hall of Fame backcourt. The Rockets cannot produce offense when Harden and Paul both are out of the game. That is to be expected. In short bursts Green or Gordon can get hot though. The Rockets lack any dynamic players at the 3-4, and all have weaknesses. Still, Tucker and Mbah are both very good defenders. Ariza and company defend well and play multiple spots. I am not overly worried about back up center. The Rockets can even run Mbah out at the 5 and Anderson can in some matchups as well. Late game ball handling could be an issue. Both Paul and Harden have had some messy playoff moments at the end of games in the past. Still it hasn’t been a real issue this season. The greatest concern is how Harden and Paul handle a game 7 against GS or in the Finals. Both have had some bad performances in the past. However what seems to get over looked is that both have also had some very good games in the past playoff series.
Eric Gordon is a vital cog to this team. His offense (coupled w/the rest of the squad )makes Rox the number one team. Without it, we're vulnerable.
The early double on Harden is one thing we need to figure out and implement to a T if we want any chance at a chip, because you know every team is going to pull this out of the hat in the 4th quarter if the game is close. In theory, it's easy to beat if we're hitting our shots. Last night, had Ariza just made a couple of the open looks he had on top of the key, then we would have won the game. But if our shots aren't falling, we usually just keep jacking it up. The man that is left open from a Harden double team NEEDS to be able to make a play - either hit the open jumper or drive and kick. If that person is CP3 or Ego then we're unbeatable. If that person is Tucker, Ariza, Ryno, Moute, or JJ then we're toast.
I would be MORE than happy with Ariza and Tucker ending up with the open 3, but that's only if they're launching from the corner as the recipient of the pass from the secondary playmaker. However, they CANNOT be the one to receive the pass out of the Harden double team.
I agree with most of those points. I think Nene will be fine as a solid backup. Also, won't Wright be back for some of the playoffs? The free throw shooting is a concern, but that is another reason to have the ball in CP's hands a lot in crunch time. The foul drawing point is huge. Harden is a master of drawing fouls, but those techniques don't work as well in the playoffs and we can not afford to get frustrated when calls don't go our way. That being said, I like our chances!
Totally agree that when either EGo or Paul are out we are a much less dynamic team. I feel like Gordon and Capela are equally important. The Tucker corner 3 has been money lately so I’m sure teams will scout this to make sure Tucker can’t spot up there. Luc/Ariza are sketchy at the elbows (Ariza air balled in crunch time yesterday, one he drilled vs Boston earlier albeit in a more important game).
Playoffs aren't here yet. So, no issues I'm worried about. We do have some end of season, games don't matter, garbage time, resting players, avoid injuries, coasting to the end, playoffs can't start soon enough issues.
Good points especially on protecting the ball and limiting turnovers. I think the mix of ball handling LATE in games when players are TIRED and the defense gets PHYSICAL and CLOSE is where they have the biggest issues. This is where I would like to see the Rockets utilize more passing. This is also why I see the Rockets closing games with Paul, Harden and Gordon on the court for maximum ball handlers. Backup C is weird because it is totally matchup based. Nene vs the physical guys, Anderson in 5-out to pull Cs out of the lane and Tucker/Moute in some hybrid of the two. That is fine. But Capela has got to raise his game for this team to go far. If nothing else, rebounding.
The plain truth is MDA has no personnel skills... He has guys out there in meaningless games continuing to try and drive them rather them allowing them to rest up for the playoffs... He should be rewarding his guys for a great regular season and setting them up for post season success. He has this mistaken belief that he has to continue to push these guys to 'keep them sharp' for the playoffs - and getting the exact opposite result... guys are becoming more lackadaisical as focus is waning - because guys know these games are meaningless... A) Quit asking your workhorses to to put forth unnecessary effort... He should have been running his 'starting lineup' for a half here or a half there... but asking guys to give full effort for a full meaningless game is unnecessary... B) Play guys who value the time on court at this point... Your guys at the end of the bench (RJ, Chee, Quarterman, etc) would love to be on the floor showing what they are capable of... These guys know that their future presence in the league is not assured - and would prob relish the opportunities - as opposed to our starters who know the game is meaningless and looking ahead to the playoffs... Plus lets see these guys in real game situations - decide if they're worth keeping around next season... maybe increase some of their trade value... So, I'm not really worried about our guys performances of late... I think they will turn it on when it matters... I am concerned that they all will have enough gas in the tank for a long grueling post season - which hopefully will be 4 series...
I think we released Wright did we not? I’m afraid our backup bigs are Nene’, Black or small ball Ryno / Tucker. As for enough gas. I think maybe 3-8 seeded teams will also face the same fatigue issue as they have had to battle to the end for their playoff lives. We have the benefit of having been able to let off the gas.
1) Rest and staying healthy going into the playoffs is top priority this past 2 weeks in my opinion. Why work/play so hard for offseason/pre-season/regular season for 72 games only to have an injury like Klay Thompson or Curry wreck your playoff hopes before they begin. Warriors may be outed in the first round because of a hyper-extended knee. That can result in a meniscus tear. 2) Nene will be better from the rest. He is holding back from going all out (injury prevention). Joe Johnson is a tricky situation. I’ve been saying a Johnson needs to post up almost every possession that he is on the court. Because he gives up points defensively or requires more def help from the other players. Staff may be comfortable with his post up, level of capability, and don’t want to showcase it for all teams to see......competition having it on video over and over again (with Rockets players), or CP3 and Harden forget about him and just run their plays. Westbrook is too fast for everyone, esp JJ. Actually the entire Thunder team might be too fast and too athletic......if JJ is out there for 12 possessions then 10 need to be him posting up.....and it should only be against Abrines, Felton or Terrance Ferguson. If not he should probably not be out there. Westbrook speed is even too fast for help defenders to help. Much quicker than say....Curry. 3) I’m ok with Zebras not calling fouls, but don’t call them on both teams. Last night the Rockets were called for many ticky-tacky calls while the Thunder were not. Rockets 23 FT’s while the Thunder had 33 FT’s (technical foul on CP3 for complaining about zebra bias). 4) Capela/Nene did ok vs OKC last year. 5) Ryan can play a pivotal role. I just don’t trust his 3-pt shooting in Toyota Center. 6) Zebras wanted Thunder in the playoffs.....last night they tipped the scales. NBA playoff drama needed. 7) Traps....Ariza played the Eric Gordon role last night and fumbled the ball many times. Gordon is important as a trap offset which can make a team pay for trapping. Glad he is resting. He will be taking contact going to the rack in the playoffs. *Side note....knee jerk from last night: Thunder: 36-91 FGA’s for 39.6% (FG%), 10-33 3PA’s for 30.3% (3P%).....Rockets: 36-76 for 47.4% (FG%) and 14-37 for 37.8% (3P%) Turnovers played a big factor last night: Thunder 11 to Houston’s 17. Rebs equal at OKC 42 while Houston had 41. That’s it for now.
