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Throwin' Elbows: Rockets making others play guessing game
By Sean Deveney - The Sporting News



You can't beat Eastern society when it comes to presenting mankind with deep, meaningful questions and anecdotes on which to meditate. You've got one-hand clapping and the tree falling in the woods. There's the case of Chao-chou's dog, Pai-Chang's fox and the gateless gate. And, of course, fortune cookies.

Now this little koan: Do the Rockets, who lucked out and won the NBA draft lottery Sunday, take Yao Ming with the top pick?

After much contemplation, I will enlighten you with an answer: Yes. For now.

Start by taking a look at what the Rockets have. There's the backcourt of Steve Francis and Cuttino Mobley, with Moochie Norris as the chief reserve. The forwards are Eddie Griffin, Maurice Taylor, Kenny Thomas, Glen Rice and possibly free agent Walt Williams. The center -- and this is where the red flag goes up -- is Kelvin Cato.

Francis, who was the team's representative at the lottery on the suggestion of owner Leslie Alexander, said it best in a television interview immediately following the lottery when he said, "We won't be looking for a point guard." True, and they won't be trading Mobley, the team's leading scorer and a close friend of Francis', to make room for a backcourt of Francis and Duke's Jay Williams, either. So we can start by crossing that off the list.

With Taylor and Thomas, the team is stacked at power forward. The Rockets are hoping Griffin, who needs a lot of work on his shot, can develop into a combo 3-4. For now, he is more of a power forward, which leaves the team with only the frequently injured Rice as a small forward. Small forward is a position the team could address in the draft, and that could mean taking a player like Mike Dunleavy, Caron Butler or Qyntel Woods with the top pick. Let's call that Option 1.

That leaves center, a position that, for so long, was not a concern for the Rockets. They had Hakeem Olajuwon for 17 years, and the hope was that there would be a smooth transition from Olajuwon to Cato. Eh, not quite.

Here are the Rockets, then, sitting on the top pick and in need of a center. There is Yao Ming, one of the most eagerly anticipated players in league history, who happens to play center, such a rare commodity in the NBA.

Houston will, of course, work out a variety of players in the next few weeks, and the Rockets are trying to get Yao back in the U.S. for a closer look. The team has scouted Yao in China, though, and Rudy Tomjanovich has coached against him. They saw him at his workout in Chicago and know he is 7-5 and nearly 300 pounds. The Rockets know what Yao has to offer.

Chances are, then, the team already has an idea of whether Yao will be its center next season. Now, it is time for some poker. General manager Carroll Dawson says the Rockets would be comfortable with Yao, and he does not foresee potential contract entanglements with the Chinese government and Yao's Chinese team as an insurmountable obstacle. So, the Rockets could simply draft him. That's Option 2.

Option 3 is to trade the pick. To do so, some deft poker playing is required, and so far, the Rockets have done it well. First, they have made it clear they are willing to take Yao and that they think he can be a great player for them. Thus, any team making an offer had better come up with something good and, preferably, tall. Second, Dawson has been certain to pump up the value of the No. 1 overall pick, pointing out what a great mental boost it is for any organization and how rare it is for a team to trade the No. 1 choice. That's smart, because it takes the focus off the "to Yao or not to Yao" question, and puts the top pick on a pedestal, surrounded by heavenly beams of light. Again, if you want to trade for this, you better have something good to offer.

For now, then it best suits the Rockets to seem perfectly willing to take Yao as their center of the future. Will he actually fill that role? Perhaps we should consult the I-Ching here.

Dawson says he had no inkling that luck was going to turn the Rockets' way. After all, the Rockets only had an 8.9 percent chance of winning. But, just to make sure, Dawson did get up and go to church that morning.

"Some of the other people there were laughing and saying, 'Oh, great day to come to church, isn't it?'" Dawson says. "I was not going to pray for the lottery, I don't want the Lord to think I am greedy. But I did think I probably should go, just in case."

It worked. Not only did the Rockets' ping pong ball come up for the top pick, it came up for the No. 2 pick as well.

"I like to say that I am not superstitious, but I think it's bad luck to talk about it," Dawson says.


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pro basketball notebook :

QUOTE OF THE WEEK: Houston Rockets guard Steve Francis, after his team won the draft lottery:

"A lot of those guys looked at me like they wanted to knock the mess out of Steve Francis."

TWO MINUTES: The Rockets have the first pick in the draft, a handful of guards who can run the offense and some obvious holes in their frontcourt, which leads many to believe that they will select Chinese giant Yao Ming. However, with Ming's size come some equally big questions about his availability and potential. If the Rockets start leaning toward Duke's Jay Williams, expect to see some serious wheeling and dealing as draft day approaches. ... New Grizzlies president Jerry West said he was relieved that his team did not slip to sixth, which would have meant relinquishing its first-round pick to Detroit. But the Grizzlies would have been better off losing the pick this year. As sharp as West is, we don't see him turning Memphis into a playoff team next year, when the pick only is protected if the Grizzlies win the lottery. That means the eye that spotted the greatness in high schooler Kobe Bryant will only be able to watch from afar as someone else selects LeBron James, the next great young thing and an absolute lock as the top pick in the 2003 draft. ... Atlanta remained eighth, which means its pick goes to the Los Angeles Clippers, who also pick 12th. You may think the last thing the Clippers need is two more young players, and you would be right. But the pair of picks mixed with some salary cap room and some tough decisions to make in the next two years on extensions for Elton Brand, Michael Olowokandi, Lamar Odom, Darius Miles and Quentin Richardson give GM Elgin Baylor plenty of flexibility and bargaining power. Baylor would be best served by maxing out Brand and Olowokandi, trading the troublesome Odom for some role players or shooters and trying to keep Miles and Richardson with deals similar to the four-year, $24 million package Indiana gave Al Harrington. That would keep both players happy while allowing them to become free agents again while in their primes. "We're going to take a look at our needs and there's also the possibility of putting those picks together and try to move up or putting those two together and trying to go get a veteran player," Clippers coach Alvin Gentry said. As far as free agent point guard Jeff Mcinnis goes, there is a contingency plan there as well in the form of Marko Jaric, the first pick of the second round in 2000 who plays in Europe and has a game similar to that of Brent Barry's. ... Outside of the Lakers, the only players still alive in the postseason who have been to the Finals are Sacramento's Vlade Divac with the Lakers in 1991 and New Jersey's Todd MacCulloch, who went last year with the 76ers. ... If the Celtics meet the Lakers in the Finals, it could get ugly. Vitaly Potapenko -- Boston's only body capable of matching up with Shaquille O'Neal -- is unavailable after having surgery to repair a torn ACL, leaving Tony Battie, Mark Blount and perhaps Rodney Rogers to man the middle. O'Neal may see more zones than he did at LSU, which if you recall, is the only level where he never has won. ...

Trivia Answer: Elvin Hayes (1968), John Lucas (1976), Ralph Sampson (1983), Hakeem Olajuwon (1984). ... Happy 39th Birthday, Joe Dumars. ... When a member of the Charlotte Sting skips practice, are they now fined by both the team and the league?

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The Clippers view is interesting to me. Also saw a quote from Dick Vitale saying Rockets should trade Francis, but can't remember where. I think he wanted to get a big man for Francis and pick up JayWill.

Perhaps we can draft Ming and still play the Odom market, later.

Personally, the Ming/Andre Miller package intrigues me more. I'd really like to see Steve/Ming work, though. Miller is the better passer and pick-and-roll player, but Steve can fly in on the cut for a electrifying hoop. Should be fun to watch, either way.