Overall, Houston is a pretty vanilla sports town.... but when it comes to an underperforming player (especially a football player), they can be just as vocal/cut-throat as any other major city.
Tom Savage Isn’t Brock Osweiler The Houston Texans may have finally found a quarterback who can lead their offense toward something resembling competence (Getty Images/Ringer illustration) On Sunday, the Texans finally got the kind of quarterbacking performance Bill O’Brien and Co. were expecting would be the norm after they inked Brock Osweiler to a four-year, $72 million deal back in March. Well, other than the fact it came from a guy named Tom Savage. After O’Brien benched Osweiler early in the second quarter, Savage came in and led the Texans from 13 points down to beat the Jaguars 21–20, push Houston to 8–6, and keep the team tied atop the AFC South with the Titans (who hold the tiebreaker). Yet, despite Savage’s adequacy (23-for-36, 63.8 percent, for 260 yards) in the face of Osweiler’s inadequacy (a 59.6 percent completion rate with 14 touchdowns and 16 picks), O’Brien refused to commit to a starter for next week’s game against Cincinnati. “I think we’ve got three really talented quarterbacks here — I really do,” O’Brien said after the game, also including Brandon Weeden. “We don’t make decisions [based] on how much a guy gets paid.” The Winners and Losers From NFL Week 15 David Johnson’s record factory, Gus Bradley’s unceremonious send-off, Brock Osweiler’s infinite sadness, and more from…theringer.com Houston fans should hope that’s true, because on Sunday, Savage was everything Osweiler hasn’t been: He was poised, confidently leading the offense in methodical drives downfield and dabbling in no-huddle. He was accurate. He was aggressive. And he made a bunch of big throws under pressure. The third-year pro out of Pitt looked nothing like the guy we last saw in 2014, when he made two relief appearances and compiled a 52.6 percent completion rate with no touchdowns and one interception at 6.7 yards per attempt. No, the former fourth-round pick looked much more like the guy we saw this preseason, when he threw four touchdowns and recorded a 98.0 passer rating in four games. Of course, Savage’s play wasn’t perfect either, but for now, O’Brien is just stalling on formally benching Osweiler. If Houston’s head coach is truly operating a meritocracy, Savage is going to be Houston’s starter on Christmas Eve. Once O’Brien pops in the tape of Sunday’s game, he’s going to see a lot more good than bad out of his soon-to-be-former backup quarterback. There’s Nothing Quite Like Betting Against Brock Osweiler The Texans passer has been terrible — but could he become the most enticing playoff QB to bet against in recent memory?theringer.com The first thing that stood out about Savage’s performance was the throws into the face of pressure. Osweiler, who finished the game 6-of-11 for 48 yards and two interceptions, registered a passer rating of exactly 0.0 when under pressure on Sunday. Compare that to Savage, whose passer rating was 101.7 when under pressure and 103.0 when blitzed. Savage’s second throw of the game, a deep shot down the sideline to Wendall Williams (who?) that picked up 32 yards, came in the face of a middle-linebacker blitz. Running back Lamar Miller did a good job of slowing down Jacksonville’s Paul Posluszny, but Savage still had to make the throw just as he was about to be hit. On this throw to DeAndre Hopkins early in the third quarter, Savage kept his cool in the pocket and delivered the football despite knowing he was about to get blown up by Yannick Ngakoue. Later, instead of panicking and trying to spin or elude pressure, Savage hung tough. After waiting long enough for the play to develop, he hit Keith Mumphery for an 11-yard gain that didn’t result in a first down, but put the Texans into field goal range. On two more throws, both early in the fourth quarter, Savage made big completions from a “muddied pocket.” With pressure closing in around him, he kept his focus downfield and bought just enough time to get off both throws. If you look at Osweiler’s average depth of target this year — 9.3 yards, 11th highest in the league per Pro Football Focus — it’s clear that O’Brien wants his quarterback to push the ball down the field. But Osweiler simply can’t operate in that system: He is dead last among qualifying passers in yards per attempt (5.8) and yards per completion (9.7). In just three-quarters of a game, Savage flashed more downfield potential than Osweiler has all year. He hit tight end Ryan Griffin on a pair of deep shots down the middle late in the second quarter and early in the third … … and then late in the third, he threw a dime to Hopkins in the end zone that really should’ve been a touchdown. Savage’s best pass of the game, though, was this deep out to Hopkins on a third-and-10 early in the fourth quarter. It required timing, arm strength, and accuracy. That brings us to perhaps the most encouraging aspect of Savage’s Sunday: He got the ball into the hands of Houston’s superstar receiver. Prior to the weekend, Hopkins had been held to under 75 receiving yards in 11 straight games, but it was not for a lack of trying, as Hopkins came into the game 12th in targets (117) but just 32nd in catches (60). Last year, Hopkins caught 111 balls for 1,521 yards and 11 scores from the awful combination of Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates, and Weeden. So it’s another indictment of Osweiler’s performance that Hopkins had just 60 catches for 701 yards and four touchdowns before the Jacksonville game. But with Savage throwing the ball, Hopkins caught eight passes for 87 yards, most of those receptions coming against the talented rookie Jalen Ramsey. There’s Something Different About DeAndre Hopkins The Texans All-Pro receiver has become a star with a style all his owntheringer.com Now, it wasn’t all good for Savage on Sunday. As his final stat line shows, the Jags held the backup passer out of the end zone, and just one of the nine drives he led ended with a touchdown. The Texans came into the game converting just 41.7 percent of their red zone trips into touchdowns, ahead of only the lowly Jets, who barely count at this point. So while Savage was clearly a spark overall, Houston’s struggles near the end zone continued. The lowlight of Savage’s game was a missed fade to Hopkins on fourth down from the 1-yard line late in the first half. Again: Stop throwing fades, everyone. Savage also struggled on third down, completing five of seven passes but converting only three of seven chances. On a third-and-4 a little more than halfway through the third quarter, it legitimately looked like he was trying to throw to Jaguars defensive lineman Malik Jackson, but Jackson dropped it. Then, on a third-and-3 late in the third quarter, Savage sailed an easy quick out to Hopkins and got his receiver blown up by Ramsey. The Brockening Is Coming Brock Osweiler predicts an offensive explosion. Let’s pray he’s wrong.theringer.com Overall, though, it’s hard to pick too many holes in Savage’s game — especially considering the mess he inherited. Houston’s offense came into this week’s matchup ranked 31st in DVOA, tied for 28th in points per game (17.6), and 31st in yards per play (4.8). Without much help from the run game, which picked up 79 yards and a touchdown on 31 carries (2.5 yards per rush), he made a bad, bad offense into something at least resembling competent. Plus, while this may sound like damning with faint praise, Savage didn’t turn the ball over. When pressure came on a few plays and nothing was open downfield, he threw the ball away, showing veteran savvy to live to play another down. The Jags scored 10 points off of Osweiler’s two picks on Sunday, and his second interception (the straw that got the camel benched) came in the face of pressure. He escaped briefly and made a “heroic” pass into triple coverage that was easily picked off. Osweiler exited the game tied for second in the league in interceptions (16), and if Savage just can manage the game and avoid throwing as many back-breaking picks, the Texans will be in much better shape for the final two weeks and potentially beyond. The slightly-above-average defense has had to carry them thus far, and it really needs the help. It’s not going to be easy for O’Brien to formally bench his $72 million man. They likely can’t dump Osweiler’s contract until after 2017, so the fallout from sitting him for a guy who’s making $600,000 in base salary this year would stretch into next season. But it’s something that the Texans need to do: Savage isn’t going to light the world on fire, but at this point Houston just needs someone who isn’t going to blow himself up.
Mcnabb said that Osweiler would be a good NFL QB if he was in an offense that was catered to his ability.. and he also thinks Osweiler will be starting next week.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...rock-osweiler-was-going-to-backfire/95614406/ FTW: Osweiler gamble was doomed from the start Steven Ruiz , USATODAY 1:06 p.m. EST December 19, 2016 The Houston Texans finally admitted what the rest of us realized long ago: Signing Brock Osweiler was a $72 million mistake. Bill O'Brien finally pulled his struggling quarterback Sunday in the second quarter with the Texans trailing the Jaguars - who were hours away from rectifying their own mistake - by multiple scores. When it became apparent that Osweiler had been benched, the Houston crowd roared as if the Texans had just clinched the AFC South. If this is the last we see of Osweiler as the Texans starting quarterback, he will have ended his season with a sub-60 completion percentage, only 14 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Those are disastrous numbers for a quarterback who was given every opportunity to succeed with an undeniably talented supporting cast around him. Evaluating quarterbacks is hard. There are just too many variables that can affect how a quarterback plays, including the offensive system he plays in. That's why we have such a difficult time projecting certain college passers to the NFL: A college offense is so different from an NFL offense, these kids might as well be playing different sports. While the differences aren't nearly as extreme, there's enough variance in the offenses throughout the league that it's hard to project how even an NFL quarterback in one scheme would do in another. And that's really where the Texans got into trouble. Osweiler enjoyed a modicum of success playing in Gary Kubiak's offense in Denver, but he didn't put up the kind of numbers you'd expect for a guy who would later be handed $36 million guaranteed. Osweiler completed 61.8% of his passes, threw 10 touchdowns and six interceptions. Now take a look at Kubiak's track record with other quarterbacks. He tends to elevate their numbers. Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub and Jake Plummer enjoyed their best years playing under him, and were never really able to match that production under other coaches. That should have been the Texans' first red flag: Sure, Osweiler was putting up decent numbers, but he was underperforming compared to other passers who have played in this QB-friendly system. Even in Denver, Osweiler was having trouble making the simple reads that Kubiak designs for his quarterback. There were multiple times throughout a game where he would misread even a simple two-man route concept and left big plays on the field. This might be the most egregious example from his time with the Broncos: O'Brien's offense is anything but simple. It's the scheme that Tom Brady has been running for the last decade-plus, which is notoriously difficult for receivers to pick up because of the route adjustments they must make based on what coverage the defense is playing. Now, imagine how hard that is on a quarterback, who has to recognize the coverage, know how it will affect the routes his receivers are running and find an open target within a few seconds while a pass rush closes in on him. Houston is running graduate-level offense compared to Denver's freshman courses. And there was just no way of knowing if Osweiler could handle that massive leap. Osweiler's throwing motion should have been another red flag. I ranked every starting quarterback in the league based on six attributes, including accuracy. Only two quarterbacks - Ryan Fitzpatrick and Colin Kaepernick - were given lower accuracy grades. Based on what we've seen this season from Osweiler, I may have been too generous with his score. Now, watch this video of Bill O'Brien explaining the three attributes he looks for in a quarterback. Here are the cliff notes: He wants his quarterback to be accurate, to make good decisions and to have a high Football IQ. Osweiler never checked any of those boxes before the Texans committed all that money to him in the offseason. To be fair, he never really got a chance to, either, having attempted only 305 passes in four seasons. The Texans' desperation for a franchise quarterback ultimately did them in. When a team is desperate, it may be willing to overlook a player's flaws and just focus in on his strengths. Osweiler had the size, arm and mobility. And he was young. His age could be used as an excuse for all of those flaws. Oh, he missed an easy read here? He's young; he'll learn. Oh, his throwing motion is broken? He's got time to fix it. Unfortunately for the Texans, his flaws were just too much to overcome, and it will cost the team, at least, $36 million and two seasons for thinking otherwise.
What's sad is that both Bill OBrien and Rick Smith watched a lot of tape of Brock (independently so they would be unbiased) and came to the same conclusion: Brock is the guy for us!
Absolutely correct. If those two couldn't or didn't see his shortcomings and they are supposed to be the so-called "experts", then they both should be shown the door. A **** up of this magnitude is inexcusable but it sort of typifies pro football in Houston as football fans have been living with these type of screw-ups (and worse) since the days of the Oilers. Meanwhile up in Dallas you have the opposite going on even with a bonehead like Jerry Jones. I'd cry but I've been living this my entire adult life so I have come to expect the ineptitude that is Houston professional football.
You can't possibly be serious. I never wanted to see him fail, but by game 13 he had as many picks as touchdowns. It was game 14, and after throwing 2 interceptions he had to be benched. Savage got a total of 2 games at the end of his rookie year, thrown into the system. This was only his 3rd start in 2 years, and he looked better than Brock with all his experience. I really doubt that by game 14 next year Savage's stats will be anywhere near as bad as Brocks are this year. He is the one who deserves a chance. Brock can retire and live off his millions for the rest of his life just living off the interest. It's hard for me to feel too sorry for him.
I'm looking at it from the Management end....they paid this guy a boat lot of money, so they will keep giving him as many chances as they can to succeed or just to be serviceable.
Sure, I understand that, but he doesn't look any better after 14 games as he did the first game. Sure, he is a nice guy and a leader, who had confidence and didn't cower, but I think that can only carry him so far. I am certainly no expert, or quarterback guru, and am not the one who watched him at practices. They probably lost faith in using him for anything other than short routes, and it limited us. Even then, he still made the same mistakes. I think the fact that we blew a 2 game lead in our division, and have been regressing was just the final straw. Somebody would have been fired if we had lost to the Jags, is my guess.
I can also write great analytical articles after the fact. Anybody can, since we can all see what happened. Chris Simms (yes, that one) seems to have been on point on this from the beginning. Never liked Brock, always liked Savage (even in the draft).
True but I was looking at the red flags detailed in the article. Sure everyone can see them now but BoB, Rick and the rest of the coaching staff are supposed to be the so-called "experts" who see all and know all. And yet they either completely missed or ignored these warning signs, signed this goober to a $72M contract and now we have this mess. In either case, this episode calls into question of the competence of BoB, his staff and the entire organization with regards to talent evaluation on the offensive side of the ball. Right now, they look like dumbasses as far as I'm concerned.
Sure, I get it. It's still a nice article to read. Just pointing out that we already kind of knew that somewhere the organization completely f'd up in the QB scouting department on this one. Whether it was Bob, B'Ob, Smith, all three... well, who it was is probably the more interesting story at this point.
Don't forget that Elway offered 30 million in guaranteed money so he was wrong about him (at least so far) as well.
Also correct as outlined by ESPN tonight: No QB is too expensive to bench. You have to wonder what it was about this particular ugly game from Brock Osweiler that led the Texans to finally bench their starting quarterback. After throwing his second INT of the game, Osweiler hit the bench with a 2.2 QBR and 48 yards on 11 pass attempts. Even worse for Osweiler, the unheralded Tom Savage came off the bench and excelled, posting a 76.1 QBR while going 23-of-36 for 260 yards in leading the Texans to a 21-20 comeback victory over the Jaguars. Brandon Weeden might be the starter. I've seen plenty of starting quarterbacks benched, but I've never had to see a player in the huddle wave his arms to quiet the cheering crowd down so they can hear the backup call his first play, as Lamar Miller was forced to do yesterday. It's very unlikely, though, that the Texans are through with their free-agent mistake. Osweiler isn't going anywhere until 2018, given the Texans owe him $16 million in guaranteed salary next year and would otherwise owe $25 million in dead money on their cap for 2017 if they cut him. Even if Savage works out, the cost of signing a competitive backup to replace Osweiler on the roster would push the cost of parting ways with him to the $30 million range, which is untenable. The only way they can shed his $19 million salary is via trade, and while the Browns would likely be willing to cook up a trade in which they absorb Osweiler's contract in exchange for a couple of first-round picks, it's not likely to happen. The Texans will have to rehab Osweiler and hope he can start fresh in 2017. Finally: I've read plenty of commentary suggesting John Elway's a genius for allowing his former starter to leave town for Texas. Elway has done incredible work in Denver and might very well deserve to be called a genius for many of the moves he has made, but let's also remember that he was quite interested in retaining Osweiler. Reports at the time suggested the Broncos offered Osweiler $16 million per year with $30 million in guarantees, only for Houston to win out with $37 million in guarantees.
No. No. No. We are not doing this. We are not going through the Osweiller dark age again. Let this thread die. I can't afford more time with my therapist.
