Its funny how nearly every single one of those "reaches" not only didn't work out, but ended up as a disaster.... the only team that has recovered from all those QB failures is the Broncos who had Manning fall into their lap.
How are they disasters? Sure, Manuel and Weeden didn't work out, but both those teams just had their best seasons in a long time - it doesn't appear the failed QB picks set them back that much. The Jets made 2 AFC title games with Sanchez. Denver recovered just fine. Baltimore has been a top tier team for the last 6 years. Minnesota made the playoffs with Ponder and may have found a franchise QB a few years later. The only real disasters are Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Tampa Bay. And two of those get an opportunity at a franchise QB again this year. This idea that picking a QB that doesn't work out sets your franchise back forever doesn't fit with the evidence. If it fails, you get another opportunity pretty quickly, and it's not like teams like teams like Jacksonville or Tennessee would have been contenders had they not picked Gabbert or Locker.
When you take a QB in the first, you're usually tied to them for a minimum of 2-3 years. It can most definitely set you back. Just bc Jax wouldn't have been contenders doesn't mean it was a good decision. Imagine if they never reached on Gabbert... The next pick was JJ Watt...a couple picks later, it was Robert Quin, Mike Pouncey, and Ryan Kerrigan. Surely, the Jags could have easily ended up with a pro bowl caliber player. In the following draft, they would have had a need for QB still, and instead of taking Blackmon, they could have drafted Tannehill, who is slowly coming into his own. Obviously, this wouldn't make them contenders, but it would most definitely keep them from continually being the crap of the league and a much more attractive place for free agents. When you miss on a first round QB, you're basically starting over 3 years later with little to no improvement over that time span. The Jags and Titans are proof of that. And that's a road I'd never want the Texans to take.
Texans take Brett Hundley(1st round - 16th pick) in this mock draft: http://football.realgm.com/analysis/2572/2015-NFL-Mock-Draft-Version-30
If so, maybe the Texans could trade down a few spots and pick up and additional 2nd rounder and take him in the 20s...
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Still three games to chart - but so far Brett Hundley's 53.5% completion % in the 11-20 yard range would be worst by far of last year's QBs</p>— Greg Peshek (@NU_Gap) <a href="https://twitter.com/NU_Gap/status/550045897523212290">December 30, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Worst major QB from last year in 11-20 yard accuracy was AJ McCarron with 63.93% comp percentage. Hundley at 53.5% so far.</p>— Greg Peshek (@NU_Gap) <a href="https://twitter.com/NU_Gap/status/550046786656956417">December 30, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Potentially the best qb in the draft. Also, potentially the biggest bust in the draft. I think he will be good. Played behind a bad line, and that hurt his confidence.
The Jameis Winston hate is real on here. In all honesty, he looked better than Mariota in the Rose Bowl. I saw a good Quarterback with a team failing miserably around him versus a decent Quarterback with Extraordinary talent around him. Not to mention, with all the adversity and scrutiny he has faced this season, he could have easily wen't back into the locker room with his other teammates, but he showed Leadership and Character when he stayed on the field and congratulated Oregon. I think if the Texans had the chance to draft Winston and didn't, we might heavily regret it. Hell, even if the Texans are drafting by BPA, Winston to me no doubt is the BPA at that pick.
i'm not even going to pretend i know how to scout a rookie qb with so many variables that factor it. All I know is if you can get consistent production for at least 11 games, like what mallet gave you in the cleveland game, this team is a contender. we were on the verge of being an 11 win team with a little better situational coaching, nothing the opposing defense made us lose that cowboys game. and all of that was with an inconsistency at the position. I expect coach b.o.b to improve in the situational coaching department. we should all be very excited about the upcoming offseasons, contrary to what i'm hearing from the local radio experts..oh noes to0 many holes to fill. this isn't a reverse a g*ngbang. we have talent in the trenches.
Agree, I don't necessarily wan't the Texans to pull the plug on a QB just because, but I also don't agree with placing all bets on Mallet. We need to explore our options at quarterback, whether through free agency or the draft. Best case scenario, I hope Mallet returns back healthy and he shows that same command and poise that he showed in the Cleveland game. However, if he doesn't or can't stay healthy, I hope we have some other options, which we probably will, although I don't really know what the status Fitz, Savage, and Keenum is going to look like in 2015.
Only Tennessee, Jacksonville and Tampa Bay are disasters? What world do you live in? Ponder- no discussion needed. Sanchez- terrible Tebow- Denver "recovered fine" because of an unprecedented fluky free agent situation, hardly something to imitate. Manuel- couldn't start over kyle freaking orton Cleveland- continuously reaches on unworthy quarterbacks only to have to do it over and over and over again. Drafting a QB just for the sake of it indicates a lack of football knowledge and a lack of any sense of recent history.
Because none of those teams are any closer to the playoffs, or winning it all, since they've drafted those QB's... and in all cases, the mistake made in drafting the QB set the team back. The teams you mentioned that "improved" did so with a journeyman that just retired and a former 3rd stringer about to be lost to free agency because they used (wasted) a 1st round pick on another QB. Imagine if those teams actually applied those 1st round resources to other needs instead of reaching for a QB? They'd be better... and more equipped to eventually "reach" if you really had to (IOW, if the QB you're drafting is not a "sure thing"... and in this decade, there has only been one proven sure thing in Luck, you don't reach!). Also, you use Sanchez and the Jets as an example of a "success" story, when in reality its the perfect example of why you don't reach for a game manager QB with a high pick. Those Jets teams were built on solid defenses with a power running game, that would have had major success with any game manager back there... but as it is, they committed to Sanchez, ultimately failed, now committed to Geno Smith, likely will fail, coaches/GM's fired... and they're back to square zero. You're way too pro "have to have a QB" to have a rational discussion on this... as you've said before, you'd just draft a QB every year if you could until you found the right one. Well in reality, teams can't do that... and GM's/coaches will lose their jobs before they get the next opportunity to draft another potentially failed QB. An easier way to think about it is failed QB = regime change = disaster. Every one of those failed QB picks resulted in, or will result in, a regime change. As soon as a coach/GM uses a first round pick on a QB, you've basically tied your job security to the performance of that player.... unless you have a phenomenal defense that was carrying your team to success despite the QB (Rex Ryan).
Easy to call something a REACH after the fact QUESTION: If you don't get a started that leads you to a superbowl . . .then you reached? Rocket River
Is it? Were Gabbert, Locker, Ponder, Manuel, Weeden, Sanchez, TEBOW, Freeman all for-sure franchise QB potential players? All for-sure first round picks? They all had question marks coming out. There will eventually be a course/market correction in the way teams evaluate their QB needs via the draft... we may have seen some of it last year when Bridgewater and Manziel slipped, and potential quality guys like Carr and Jimmy G were not reached for. Then again, the Jags chose Bortles...
As big a decision to draft a QB, what QB to sign/cut/trade is also key. Will they bring four QBs into training camp like they did this year? Savage/Fitzpatrick/Mallet/rookie or Savage/Fitzpatrick/Mallet/Keenum or Savage/Mallet/Keenum/Rookie or any other similar combination.
A lot of those guys were most definitely questionable picks at the spots they were taken. The better question would be, outside of pick 1-1, how many QBs have been worth first round selections? Look at the last handful of drafts... 2009 Matt Stafford 1-1 Mark Sanchez 1-5 Josh Freeman 1-17 2010 Sam Bradford 1-1 Tim Tebow 1-25 2011 Cam Newton 1-1 Jake Locker 1-8 Blaine Gabbert 1-10 Christian Ponder 1-12 2012 Andrew Luck 1-1 RGIII 1-2 Ryan Tannehill 1-8 Brandon Weeden 1-22 2013 EJ Manuel 1-16 2014 Blake Bortles 1-3 Johnny Football 1-22 Teddy B 1-32 Stafford, Cam, Bradford, and Luck were not reaches when they were selected first overall. Some may have not pegged them to go #1, but they were all going to go in the top 10 for sure. Therefore, when they were picked by their respective teams, those were not reaches. Now, outside of the first selections in the draft, look at the remaining list...it's basically trash. 13 QBs selected...and maybe 3 that have a future in this league. Terrible percentage, specially when you consider that your franchise will go nowhere for at least 3 years if you miss. The smarter route would be to take another position of need in the first round and then "reach" for a QB in rounds 2-4. That way, if you dont hit, at least you havent invested as heavily into the position and it is much easier to move on from that "mistake".
You have to roll the dice with a QB if the scouting indicates it. QB arent a dime a dozen, and since it is a QB league everybody is reaching. Texans did not want to reach for Bridgewater and they lost out to the Vikings. It boils down to accepting most QB picks are risky. And teams need to invest a lot of resources in a QB, in order for them to succeed. Overpaying QB's is the name of the game. Either by paying too much, or draft too early.
Taking Teddy at 1-32 is the opposite of reaching. Teddy was a 1-1 prospect going into his last year in college and then wasnt quite as hot of a prospect, but the overwhelming majority of analysts gave him a solid first round grade.
