Soooo, they had part of a single bad month and it was the first month of the season? No, the Dodgers are just a better team and we are in our own heads since the ASG, been bad for a while now.
Didn't say they were not the better team. Just that they did have a down time (for them). Also agree our down time has been longer than theirs. Good thing they are in the NL. The only teams in the AL that concern me are the Red Sox and Indians. If you compare our year to anyone not the Dodgers, you will find comparable and/or significant periods of struggle.
I forgot to add yesterday that if we're going back to off-season moves, then you have to give Rizzo credit for acquiring Adam Eaton and Adam Lind. While I think they have a bigger win-now mandate than the Astros (due to the boss's age and Harper probably leaving), they also have a spend-thrift owner constraint. The only top prospect they lost this season was in the Eaton trade. But because of their activity, their bench depth when fully healthy is: Howie Kendrick, Adam Lind, Stephen Drew, and Brian Goodwin - 2 are having all-star level seasons and the other 2 are having good seasons. Their overall hitting depth is sick. Damn it, I wish our owner was getting too old and wanting to win more urgently.
I'm so glad you asked... At one point, the Astros were so good, it prompted threads that wondered if all the winning would get boring; if the Astros were as good as an NBA dynasty that had just won its second championship in three years. Through the All-Star break, the Astros were on pace to obliterate their franchise record for wins in a season. So when @Kim tried to draw a straight line between the Nationals and Astros: I wanted to point out that the Nationals are not the Astros; the Dodgers are the Astros, ie the team every other team in their respective league is chasing/trying to figure out how to beat in October (unless you think a tough stretch of ~ 35 games marred by injuries to four of the team's six best players has invalidated those first ~90 games). And, while we're here.... everyone falling all over themselves to crown the Dodgers in August need to remember quite a few of the same people were crowning the Astros not too terribly long ago. It wasn't a terribly complicated post/idea.
Baseball is a game of inevitability. Since falling below .500 on April 26 (the Astros, btw - have not spent a single day under .500 this year), the Dodgers have played at a 125-win pace, which is almost uncertainly unsustainable. (Probably.) If I were a Dodger fan, man - I'd be a tad - worried is not the right word but: regression to the mean - for them, IF it happens - could be every bit as ugly as Houston's with the added insult of it being wildly ill-timed. If, OTOH, the Dodgers somehow maintain this pace and blitzkrieg through October, then we're witnessing the single-greatest season of any professional sports team in my lifetime, and one of the greatest sustained runs of success... ever. It is mind-boggling to think they can keep this up for that long.
The scary thing is that the Dodgers are doing this with arguably the best pitcher in baseball on the DL for the last month.
Spoiler First 2 months | Following 3 months | Last 10 | Last 20 | Last 30 LAD: 33-21 | 56-14 | 8-2 | 16-4 | 24-6 WAS: 33-19 | 42-29 | 7-3 | 13-7 | 18-12 HOU: 38-16 | 38-33 | 5-5 | 7-13 | 13-17 BOS: 29-23 | 43-30 | 7-3 | 15-5 | 19-11 CLE: 27-24 | 42-31 | 7-3 | 12-8 | 20-10 ARI: 33-22 | 36-35 | 4-6 | 9-11 | 13-17 COL: 33-22 | 35-35 | 3-7 | 8-12 | 14-16 CHC: 25-27 | 42-30 | 7-3 | 11-9 | 18-12 NYY: 30-20 | 37-37 | 6-4 | 10-10 | 18-12 MIN: 26-23 | 39-37 | 7-3 | 14-6 | 17-13 MIL: 28-25 | 38-36 | 7-3 | 11-9 | 14-16 LAA: 28-28 | 37-33 | 7-3 | 14-6 | 19-11 KC: 22-30 | 41-31 | 6-4 | 8-12 | 16-14 STL: 25-25 | 38-37 | 4-6 | 11-9 | 17-13 SEA: 25-29 | 39-34 | 5-5 | 10-10 | 16-14 MIA: 21-30 | 41-32 | 8-2 | 13-7 | 19-11 TEX: 26-28 | 36-35 | 6-4 | 12-8 | 17-13 TB: 29-27 | 33-38 | 3-7 | 8-12 | 11-19 BAL: 27-24 | 34-41 | 4-6 | 9-11 | 15-15 PIT: 24-30 | 36-36 | 2-8 | 9-11 | 12-18 TOR: 26-27 | 33-39 | 5-5 | 10-10 | 15-15 ATL: 22-29 | 34-39 | 5-5 | 8-12 | 10-20 SD: 22-33 | 34-36 | 5-5 | 9-11 | 15-15 OAK: 23-29 | 32-42 | 4-6 | 8-12 | 12-18 DET: 25-28 | 29-42 | 2-8 | 7-13 | 11-19 NYM: 23-28 | 31-42 | 2-8 | 6-14 | 10-20 CIN: 24-28 | 29-45 | 4-6 | 10-10 | 13-17 SF: 22-33 | 29-44 | 4-6 | 10-10 | 14-16 CWS: 24-28 | 24-48 | 3-7 | 7-13 | 10-20 PHI: 17-34 | 28-45 | 2-8 | 6-14 | 12-18
At what point are fans allowed to be concerned? This line of thinking has been expressed time and again since the trade deadline and things aren't exactly looking up. The fear now is that this team loses the #1 seed in the AL and has to face Kluber or Sale twice in 5 games instead of playing the WCG winner. Is that not a legitimate concern?
Again... not your best analysis. Pace is a funny thing.... but at the end of the day, this team is who it is at the end of the season... regardless of how they were over an arbitrary 60 game stretch to start the season (I believe 42-16 was their best winning % for the year). The problems that have plagued the Astros during this bad stretch were not necessarily unforeseen. Many were calling for improvements in the pitching staff in the off-season, and resigned to waiting till the trade deadline... where inaction (or unsuccessful action) then commenced. The Nationals, regardless of their position, made improvements. The Dodgers, regardless of their position, made improvements. Ditto Red Sox, Cubs, Yankees, etc. Pretty safe to say that teams in contention typically will stack the deck to try and optimize their post-season chances as much as possible... there is absolutely nothing wrong with this mindset.
I really think the Astros will be OK once everyone is back healthy. They had a ton of good will through the first 70-75% of the season and this is the universe adjusting accordingly. And there IS good news... Joe Musgrove is emerging as a legitimate October weapon: 15.1 IP as a reliever; .404 OPS & 1.68 FIP; 16 K. & last night, Devo looked like the Devo of old. If he can climb back to his early season dominance and Will Harris comes back healthy, the Astros can essentially make every playoff game five innings.
When they fall behind in a playoff series?....... Other than seeding, the regular season is not predictive of postseason success and doesn't really matter. I'd LIKE for them to show signs of knocking off this malaise, but that's merely to soothe any fan anxiety. The only necessary requirement is that all cylinders be firing on October 5. Remember, the Astros stumbled into the postseason in '15 (13-17 in September/October) and promptly shut down the Yankees in New York and had the eventual champs on the ropes.
There's a lot of "ifs" in there, but I do generally agree that the starting pitching and bullpen have both been very good of late. Our bats are the current issue, and that's a funk that I do not see lasting the rest of the season. My point was moreseo that THIS would be a perfectly reasonable time for the Dodgers to go into their slump. Many of their stars are currently on the DL, yet they keep on winning. At some point the thought process needs to shift from "there's no way they can keep this up" to "holy crap, maybe they are this good."
Astros have the second lowest ERA over the past 7 days and 4th in the last 14 days. Advanced stats suggest similar story.
Good point on Eaton--but yes, it was costly too for an older speed-guy. Let's see how that plays out. On their bench depth, that's a tough statement for me to agree with: a) Kendrick's acquisition had a lot to do with Turner and Werth being injured. They acquired depth because of injuries...so you can't go back and say "if healthy they have depth so they're awesome" b) Lind is a strict platoon player. He's good vs. righties, but doesn't even get a shot vs lefties. That's not traditional "depth". In comparison, the Astros spent a lot to acquire Yuli--who is almost as good playing 2x as much (so really, better overall) c) Stephen Drew is a name, but nothing great in the last 3 years. d) Goodwin came out of nowhere...again playing out of necessity. That'd be equivalent to a rash of injuries forcing Tyler White to come up, but he raked for 200 ABs. If that happened, I'm not sure we'd be praising Luhnow as much as counting our blessings. Not trying to crap on everything, but I really don't see those moves as any better than ours, when you take into account situations that force moves + luck. The lone difference is that Taylor is performing wayyy better than he ever has before, which means they don't have the Marisnick/Fisher hole that we do. Meaning Marwin is in LF optimally, and not leading the bench brigade
You're correct that many of the moves were forced, and I think that put them in a better position. We have hitter injuries too, and both teams are expected to get major contributors back in time for the playoffs (Correa, Gattis, McCann vs Harper, Turner, Werth). But because they made those moves I think the depth is real. I'm just annoyed/saddened that the Astros are relying on Stassi and Davis not to choke with RISP and less than 2 outs. They could have had at least one more move for a vet (or not let go of Aoki). Edit: But why is Lind being compared to Yuri? If we're trying to go further back on acquisitions, then how about the Daniel Murphy signing being compared to Yuri. And Lind is def a righty guy, but hasn't been bad against lefties this year in his few at bats.
Because Yuli was signed at the end of the previous season with a mind to the future. Daniel Murphy was a hell of a signing for them, but ultimately they've been on a different curve than we have in terms of being competitive earlier and for longer, so I agree that it's hard to keep going back. Aoki was not good. People were crushing the team for signing him / not dumping him for Fisher the 1st time / etc. When they finally do it, people wish he was still around for depth....which is precisely why I argued to keep him around in the beginning. Either way, he wasn't making a difference. When both teams get healthy (and they're both expected to be healthy within a month), I'd take our lineup over theirs. Probably their bench over ours, but in a healthy playoff series with rest, not sure that matters a ton.
People in the pre-season thought Keuchel was already washed up, McCullers injury prone, Morton was Fister Part II, McHugh was a one-hit wonder in his rookie year, Peacock was 25th man roster filler, and Fiers was a fluke no-hitter pitcher... Only one was really true... ...and the injury concerns for the hitters though... inevitable, but no one outside of Gattis and Springer had much of an injury history.
