'Under contract' should be viewed with context in this instance. The contract Luhnow and Hinch are facing is the 'one year' suspension. The correlation is the 'contract' doesn't disappear because the season(s) isn't present (retiring vs cancelled season). But agreed, we have no idea what's going to happen.
Wouldn’t mind this. Although if it’s two warm-weather/retractable roof teams then it shouldn’t be played at a neutral site.
There goes most of the baseball season. MLB likely wont start until herd immunity kicks in. Not that baseball is in the order of mangitude the seriousness of the virus, but of the social gatherings, it will be the one I miss the most.
My guess now is they play a half season. An updated 81 game schedule, no interleague play, no all-star game.
Even a June 1st start gives them 122 days if they want to finish by the end of September. I think we will see more than 81 games and interleague play will still be a part of it. I do agree there will likely be no all-star game And if people continue to react the way they are we won't have to worry about fans attending the games, no one will have enough money to go to a game
At the rate things are going, we won’t see the infections peak until late May, meaning things won’t start to get back to normal until late June. There is hope everything happens a month earlier than that (hence the rumored Memorial Day start), but I think July 4th is a more realistic opening day.
Late May is likely as good a projection as there is knowing as little as we know about virus and more importantly how the people of the US will react to it. Though the rate hasn't slowed to that point yet. At the rate we are going (known infections doubling every three days), everyone in the US will be infected by April 25, 2020 assuming only those positively tested have it. Assuming 10 times as many people have it as have tested positive, we reach entire US population infected by April 17, 2020. I've seen no evidence that precautions taken in the US have slowed the rate of infection. At some point, either US precautions will kick in, herd immunity kicks in (50% have had it and their immunity to it is still effective[this is the big hope right now]), or enough people have it that it slows as infected people can't infect an infected person (and uninfected people are basically Burt Gummer). I'm not sure when things will return to normal. I do expect people will be pissed such that the normal that we eventually reach may not be the normal of a few weeks ago. Caveat: I'm not a doctor, but it appears the rate known cases in US are increasing is more a product of testing capabilities than rate of infection (i.e., people are getting sick faster than can be tested).
If your going to use stats to project the future, and everyone's ends up infected, and the mortality rate stays in the 2-3% range, then 7-10 million Americans will die. What a comforting thought
