It's getting stronger. In theory, the Brewers should be better, as should the *shudder* Cubs. IMO, it's going to take more than 90 wins to win the division this year.
The regular season is far more indicative of the quality of a team or division than a 20-game (at most) playoff sample set.
So, you'd rather win 100 regular season games, but lose in the divisional round than win the division or wild card with 85 wins and take the World Series? I'm going to take playoff success over regular season success any day.
That's not even remotely what I said. Of course I'd rather win 85 games and a championship. Using your example, what I said was that the team that won 100 games is probably the better team, even if the 85-win team beats them in a 7-game series. The 85-team may be the champions, and deservedly so, but a 162-game regular season is a better barometer than several short playoff series.
I don't think anyone would say that. Everyone would always pick the championship over having the best team. But then again, that's not Hammer's point. In baseball, there is so much variance in small sample sizes that the best team does not always win a over a 18 game playoff stretch, much less a 7 game series. Generally speaking, the regular season because of a much larger sample size gives us a better idea of who are the best teams. Ideally you want to have the best team, because while the better squad might not always win over a 7 game series in october, they have a better chance to.
I guess my point is...Who cares? If the Astros won 50 games and got in the playoffs, I'd still be happy. It doesn't matter how you do it as long as you do it. Once you're there, anything can happen.
The discussion was about the relative strength of the division. If you don't care, why did you make a comment on the topic earlier?
Not that I don't care about the topic. I don't care how the Astros get in the playoffs. They were the best team in the NL, possibly in the majors, in 1998. What did that get them? Nothing. I guess what I'm trying to say is I'd rather be lucky than good. The strength of the division is getting better. I don't believe they'll be the whipping boys of baseball this season. The Brewers will be better. The Cubs are still going to be good. I believe the Astros will have a winning record. Even the Reds are better. The only team I forsee doing worse is the Cards. They did nothing to replace what they've lost. Glaus is, at best, equal to Rolen. Pujols has been complaining about his elbow. The Pirates...we'll they'll be the Pirates.
Why will the Brewers be better? The Cubs?? I can see them all being better...but I don't think that's a given at all.
The Brewers are a year older. It's a young team that also made their pen stronger...at least most would say they did. I think they'll be more consistent this year. The Cubs seemed to add some offense while keeping their pitching intact. If Zambrano has a Zambrano type year, they are going to be very tough to contend with.
I hear ya with the Brewers. They'd be my pick to win the division....if Sheets could stay healthy. Capuano is the key to making them work, I think. The Cubs...yeah, we'll see. Zambrano isn't pitching for a contract anymore...we'll see if that has an effect. I think they're good on paper, but not any better than the Astros offensively. the Astros need a lot to break their way in the starting rotation. we'll see what happens. i can't wait!!!!
For the Brewers, A healthy Weeks and full season of Braun will help the offense. Across the board they are pretty young among their position players, so i'm not sure i anyone could be expected to decline offensively. They have good pitching depth, but the question of whether they'll win 90+ games may hinge on Sheet's health and/or Capauno having a bounce back year. The main offensive area the Cubs could improve from last year is at the corners in the outfield. Funkdome, is suppose to be the next big japanese thing. Projection I've seen for him (~280/400/500) based on his japanese #'s would be a tremendous help for the chicago offense. Zambrano, pitching in his "contract year" had his worst season of his career. If i'm the cubs i wouldn't worry about him pitching in a noncontract year, since he's done better in those anyways. I would worry about him wearing down. He's been abused as a cubs and thrown a ton of pitches and innings over the course of his career. His peripherals have been going backwards the last 5 years (esp hrs). I'd be worried that the abuse he's taken is catching up with him and he's starting to wear down. Nonetheless, with zambrano, lilly, Hill, and Lieber, the cubs probably have one of the top 3 rotations in the NL this year. Basically I wouldn't count on ~85-86 wins taking the division this year. If i had to guess, I would say that the Astros need to get to the low 90's to win the division.
Twins, Hernandez agree to one-year, $5M deal Associated Press Updated: February 12, 2008, 4:55 PM ET Comment Email Print MINNEAPOLIS -- The Minnesota Twins added some seasoning to their suddenly raw rotation. Innings Eater The Twins didn't replace Johan Santana with an ace, but they did get themselves an innings eater. No pitcher has logged more innings than Livan Hernandez since the 2000 season. Right-hander Livan Hernandez agreed Tuesday to a $5 million, one-year contract with the team that could earn him an additional $2 million in performance bonuses, raising the average age for a group ransacked by the departures of Johan Santana and Carlos Silva. Santana was traded to the New York Mets, and Silva signed with the Seattle Mariners. Another starter from last season, Matt Garza, was dealt to the Tampa Bay Rays. "If we could find the right guy, we were going to add that," general manager Bill Smith said. "We certainly weren't afraid to go in without veteran starters, but it's going to be give those young players someone to look to." Last year, Hernandez made $7 million while going 11-11 with a 4.93 ERA in 33 starts for Arizona. He pitched for the Diamondbacks in the NL Championship Series. Hernandez, a native of Cuba, has been quite durable over 10-plus years in the majors, logging at least 199 innings each season since 1998. As a rookie in 1997, he won a World Series with the Florida Marlins. Over the past eight years, the two-time All-Star -- who has never pitched in the American League -- led the majors with more than 1,837 innings and 32 complete games. He is 134-128 with a 4.25 ERA in 350 career starts. The Twins have always been against paying big bucks for free-agent pitchers, preferring to develop their own and selectively hand out lucrative contract extensions to some of them. They've occasionally tried to supplement the staff with relatively cheap veterans, a move that brought them Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson last season. Though Ortiz and Ponson were only signed for a total of $4.1 million, a portion of which was saved when Ortiz was traded to Colorado in August, they ultimately hurt the team more than they helped. Ortiz went 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA in his first five starts, but he was banished to the bullpen in late May and finished with a 5.14 ERA and a .298 batting-average against in 91 innings for Minnesota. Ponson was released after going 2-5 with a 6.93 ERA in just seven starts. In 2003, Twins were successful with a $2 million contract given to Kenny Rogers midway through spring training. Rogers went 13-8 with a 4.57 ERA in 31 starts for the AL Central champions that year. Smith refused to second-guess the Ortiz and Ponson signings, because they were "good teammates" and allowed for more development in the minors for a pair of prospects who are front-runners for spots in the rotation this spring. Scott Baker replaced Ponson, and Kevin Slowey was called up after Ortiz's demotion. The Twins committed between $5 million and $7 million toward the belief that Hernandez was worth adding. Plenty of room remains for the young guys, with Baker, Slowey, Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser, Nick Blackburn, Philip Humber and possibly Glen Perkins among the myriad candidates for starting spots when spring training begins next week. Bonser and Baker are the most experienced, with 48 major league starts apiece. Also, Hernandez and Liriano share the same agent, Greg Genske. "He'll be a good influence on the rest of the rotation," Smith said. "We're looking forward to having him here, and we're happy to be adding him to our ballclub." Closer Joe Nathan was a teammate of Hernandez's with San Francisco from 1999-2002. He remembered getting his "butt whipped" on the golf course by Hernandez, who often shot near par. Nathan lamented that Hernandez won't get to bat, other than in interleague road games, because he's a .232 hitter with nine career home runs. In 2001, Hernandez batted .296 in 81 at-bats for the Giants. Mostly, Nathan was glad to add him to the staff. "It's not so important to get a veteran guy just to have him there, if he's not going to be at the same level that the younger guy would be," Nathan said. "But you get a guy like this that has proven he throws a ton of innings and knows how to pitch, I think if you can pick up a guy like that, it's a great fit."
