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[Official] Astros Off Season

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Castor27, Oct 19, 2018.

  1. awc713

    awc713 Member
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    Diaz is our only optionable offensive player, so odds are definitely not “basically zero”.

    Also, keep in mind we got Diaz for Thornton. It’s not like we’ll get anything all that valuable if we do move him.
     
  2. prospecthugger

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    Marisnick can be optioned. There's a non zero chance they option him just to delay making a real decision by opening day.
     
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  3. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Kemp started 27 games in CF last year when the Astros had Marisnick and Straw in the organization. Last time the Astros made a decision to have just one of Marisnick, Kemp, and Straw on the MLB team, the Astros picked Kemp. I'm not saying Kemp definitely makes the team. However, it should not be hard to see him as an option when he played more than Marisnick last year, played enough in CF that Astros see him as a viable backup there, and even started a few playoff games when Altuve went to the DH.

    I think there is much better chance than most that the Astros delay making a decision on trading an OF until they call up Tucker. People get hurt. The longer the Astros delay, the more likely the situation works itself out on its own.

    Caveat: I did not think Marisnick looked good last year, and I worry that he becomes unplayable outside as a defensive replacement/base-runner due to contact issues again. I think the days of him being able to maintain a K% in the upper 20%s all year are gone. I'm hoping he can keep it around 35%.
     
  4. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Kemp has had a good size mlb sample of 470 PA. He has 0.3 fWAR and 12 SB in 173 games. He carries a .245/.327/.359 line good for a below average 93 wRC+. Defensive metrics do not look kindly on him, as a 2B or LF (much less CF). He is 27 years old and 5’6” 165 lbs; there’s no projection left in him. He is not an everyday player on any good team. He is a great clubhouse guy who you would love to have as your 13th position player. You don’t mind running him out to left or 2B every once in awhile and you don’t panic if he is your 3rd CF. You may even tolerate him as an everyday 2B or LF for awhile as long as he hits 9th. But being out of options is especially poisonous to players with his profile. Luhnow should hang on to him through spring in case Brantley or Altuve gets hurt, but if a team offers anything of value, Houston should be all over it.
     
  5. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    If you weight data from 2016 equally with 2018 data, this is the picture you get. If you look at projection systems like ZiPs and/or Steamer that weight data recently more than data from three years ago, the picture you get isn't much different. He looks a little better defensively than he was with more experience in the OF. I don't think he can play 2B based on how the Astros have played him. A little better with the bat such that he's almost an average hitter. That 0.3 becomes a 1.2-1.5 WAR if he was a regular. In other words, he's probably about as good as Marisnick except one plays offense w/o options and one plays defense with an option left.

    On CF metrics, 27 starts in CF says Kemp is capable of playing CF as the 2nd CF even if it isn't played well. 2018 UZR suggests his defense drops by the positional adjustment from LF to CF (i.e., his overall value, WAR, in LF or CF would be the same). Career UZR suggests Kemp is a better CF than a LF if you want to weight data from each year evenly. DRS isn't as optimistic and he would be about 0.5 WAR worse over a full season in CF than in LF. As a backup, you are talking about a 5-10% chance his defense in CF is so bad that it would cost the team a win over what he do in LF.

    Granted, these numbers are all based on averages. It is more likely Kemp either sucks or is an average player than he is a 1 WAR player. Personally, I don't think optioning Marisnick is that big a deal and should be done to try to find out more about whether or not Kemp is decent or not. I'm not sure what Astros think regarding whether Kemp is worth a longer look.
     
    #3645 Joe Joe, Feb 11, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2019
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  6. astros123

    astros123 Member

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  7. awc713

    awc713 Member
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    White looking good
     
  8. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    For those arguing Jake over Kemp because if defense, if we were talking about a playoff roster I would agree

    But for a regular season grind, I think Luhnow values Kemp and would take him over Jake. Especially when you have Straw sitting there as a defensive stud. If taking Kemp over Jake means you eventually lose Jake, Straw can provide the quality OF defense when you get to the playoffs if that is a need

    And yes I know Jake is an absolute stud in CF, I just have seen them value that more in the playoffs than for a long grinding season
     
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  9. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    Is Justin lobbying the Astros to sign Harper?
     
  10. astros123

    astros123 Member

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    Hes debating that its bullshit that owners are milking players rookie contracts then ditch them when they can. Rookie players need to have a opt out clause after the 4th year because the current super 2 is bullshit.
     
  11. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    You sound angry

    Players and owner are BOTH getting filthy rich, neither are struggling

    As I've said many times, the next CBA will be incredibly interesting. The differences in the sides are pretty big, but what is the average mlb salary now, around 4 million? In 1994 it was just over a million. How much money are the owners making yearly? No idea but it's a huge number, and it's much higher than it was in 94

    I do not think we will see another work stoppage, I think both sides realize they have too much to lose.

    I have nothing to base any of this on other than my own feelings, but I think we see

    1) DH in the NL
    2) Rosters expanded to 26-27
    3) Reconfigured draft system, particularly the slotting system which is what drives tanking more than the pick order
    4) International draft
    5) Some kind of change to the way players contracts transform from rookie contracts to free agency. This one is extremely difficult in baseball. It isn't like the other sports where players are drafted and are on the big team immediately. I think a system where once signed after the draft the team holds your rights for a certain number of years, regardless of whether you are up or down. That clock starts immediately. Now the amount you make would be much different when you get to the big leagues, but the clubs couldn't hold you down for control reasons.
    6) Speed of game...I think the way that pitchers are changed will change. Something involving the manager not calling time, going to the mound before he even calls for the reliever....look, on this speed of game stuff...none of us on here care (or very few of us) cause we LOVE the game...but to get the young fans to follow the game, they need the pace up....it's not even the actual length of the game, it's doing away with the downtime...and again, most of us love all of the nuances of the game....but we won't be here forever and the young sports fan is a different breed
    7) Robo Umps for Balls and Strikes...ok this is just something i WANT, not something I really think will happen

    More of those issues are on the side of the players, but I think the owners know they are flush with profits right now, more than ever...and they know that if they can get control of a few issues, mainly a system where they are paying up front more for players in their prime but NOT paying on the end of long contracts where the players are not strongly productive anymore. To keep that down, they will give in on some issues...

    Gonna be very interesting to see how all of it plays out...I just want another title or two before the current one ends
     
  12. Major

    Major Member

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    They *could* sign Harper, but why? If you're rebuilding, why pay $30MM/yr and be locked into a player that may or may not be good when needed in 5 years, when your alternative is just to sign that kind of player in 5 years - plus, you know then exactly positions you need to shore up the most anyway. Just like he said owners aren't lowering ticket prices when they don't spend, it's not like masses of extra fans will come for a 70 win team vs a 65 win team if Harper is a 5 WAR player. There's simply not $30MM in benefits to signing a $30MM player for many teams.
     
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  13. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    The system isn't broken it's just that the players aren't getting what they want. So maybe it is broken from a player expectation side. 10 year contracts should never be expected in any sport.
     
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  14. Jake Tower

    Jake Tower Member

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    Was not Verlander traded because the Tigers decided they were no longer in contention and could 1. send Justin to a contender as thanks and 2. not have to pay the full amount of his contract*

    *Verlander had a no trade clause and waived it for the Astros, Detroit couldn't unilaterally trade him
     
  15. DwangBoy

    DwangBoy Member

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    System is broken bc players are spoiled. Lol....
     
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  16. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    From what I've read, players and owners have essentially agree to the players making between 53 and 57% of baseball revenues. According to the Athletic, players are still getting between 53 and 57%. However, this appears to be inertia mostly from already signed fat contracts. The player side will drop below 53% pretty quickly if the free agent market stays the way it has the past two years. System is broken.

    Granted, free agents whining about money is whining. The players that deserve the money that previously went to free agents are those in the minors or under club control. The players agreed to a CBA that didn't increase minimum salaries and arbitration salaries with baseball revenues. As long as that is the case, the system breaking down was inevitable as the price for free agents went up a lot faster than the price for club controlled talent. There are a lot factors that have exaggerated the crash of the free agent market. 1) There were a lot of teams that thought they had a chance from 2012-2016 causing them to spend more than normal (i.e., it delayed the decline in free agent market), 2) Astros, Dodgers, Indians, Yankees, and Red Sox have stocked rosters now causing other teams to spend less than normal/tank, 3) Astros, Dodgers, Indians, and Yankees have stocked rosters with players under club control that are better than a lot of free agents causing contenders not to need to sign many free agents, 4) young players are getting better.

    Players are basically blaming it on tanking. Sure, tanking is part of the reason free agents are getting less, but it isn't the root problem and would fix itself once the league gets a little more parity.
     
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  17. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    That’s very interesting about the % of revenue currently going to the players still falling within the agreed range. So essentially (and ironically) the free agents of the last 2-3 seasons aren’t getting paid because the free agents from previous seasons (Pujols, etc) already got all the money. Which means Verlander’s $28M salary is the reason Keuchel isn’t getting paid. So he should probably chill with the criticism.

    To me the issue just isn’t that complicated. Agree to the range of the % of revenue the players should get; whatever the actual comes in at, the league minimim salary for the next season gets adjusted to account for the difference. Or just pay it out to all players as a bonus based on amount earned the prior season. Either way, as long as the players are getting the % of revenue they were promised, they really have nothing to complain about.
     
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  18. samtaylor

    samtaylor Member

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    So here's how the opening day 25-man roster looks like as of now...

    Batters
    C - Roberto Chirinos
    C - Max Stassi
    1B - Yuli Gurriel
    2B - Jose Altuve
    SS - Carlos Correa
    3B - Alex Bregman
    UTL - Aledmys Diaz
    OF - George Springer
    OF - Josh Reddick
    OF - Michael Brantley
    OF - Jake Marisnick
    ??? - Tyler White/Tony Kemp/Kyle Tucker

    Pitchers
    SP - Justin Verlander
    SP - Gerrit Cole
    SP - Colin McHugh
    SP - Wade Miley
    SP - Josh James
    RP - Chris Devenski
    RP - Will Harris
    RP - Brad Peacock
    RP - Ryan Pressly
    RP - Hector Rondon
    RP - Framber Valdez
    RP - Francis Martes?
    CL - Roberto Osuna
     
  19. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Martes is out for the season. I expect them to add a reliever or 2 from the outside, but if they don’t then there will be 2 spots for Valdez, Perez, Deetz, Armenteros, Guduan, Abreu, Rodgers, and all the other potential bullpen arms not on the 40 man. My guess would be Deetz and Valdez get the nod for opening day.

    If there are no injuries during the spring (there probably will be), then I think they option Tucker and Marisnick, and make Kemp the 4th OF until performance, injury, trade, or something else necessitates a change. I think it’s virtually certain White will be on the roster.
     
    #3659 Snake Diggit, Feb 12, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2019
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  20. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I'd put it more on Pujols, Chris Davis, Ellsbury, Tulowitski, Greinke, Cabrera, Zimmerman, and now Hosmer (even though that was just last year) than on Verlander. If Keuchel was as good as Verlander, he would get a 1-year 28 million dollar salary easy. Too many teams made mistakes trying to win are now looking at how teams like the Astros were built.

    I agree that as long as there is a mechanism that adjusts minimum and arbitration salaries tied to baseball revenue, the issue should be self correcting. The complication is that guys like Keuchel that got the shaft during club control waited for free agency to get their pay day are now getting the shaft in free agency. Veterans are angry as they did their time and likely hold strong sway over the union. No group of veterans wants to be the one that changes the system such that they are the ones getting less money in free agency after having gotten less money under club control.
     
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