Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Castor27, Oct 2, 2016.
Improve the relieve pitching and add a power bat!!
Chapman and Tumbo
Trumbo is a career .251/.302/.473 hitter. It would be like going back to Evan Gattis as our full-time DH.
Chapman the player would be great. Chapman the guy that fires gun shots in his house during an argument with his wife is something I would avoid.
That just isn't accurate. Give me pinpoint accuracy over gas any day. Keuchel didn't have that same accuracy at times this year and his velocity was down from the last year.
Agree with you and Zacatecas to a degree. Pinpoint accuracy over gas only works at certain levels of velocity. After that, you become 45 year old Jaime Moyer--effective as a spot starter / 6th man in a rotation with a ~5.00 ERA
[Preface: there's no way to prove this part]: I think Keuchel knew this also. Yes, he didn't have the same accuracy a lot of this year. It seemed to me that a lot of that was precisely because he knew his velocity was down below where it had to be--so he started overthrowing, leading to less precise location. If his velocity was there, he could "just throw" (i.e. do his normal thing / not overthrow) and get back to 91 mph insanely accurate Cy Young ball.
Why his velocity was down is a matter for the experts. Mechanics, fatigue, strength, old man syndrome.. I don't know. But I hope they figure it all out.
Dallas K suffered from a 2-3 MPH velocity dip for the first half of the season and then periodically in the second half. That was the biggest reason for his struggles. He also suffered inconsistent command at times too, but it is very likely that it is again based on overuse. Honestly, 240 innings is too much in this era. His career high was 200 going into his Cy Young season.
Also the idea that Dallas K wasn't an elite pitcher in the 2015 season is absurd. He was at worst one of the 3 worst pitchers in baseball. Across 440 innings between 2014 and 2015; Dallas had an era of 2.70..... that is certainly ace material.
Seems like their careers are more like mirror images of each other, rather than drastically different
I'd take Gray simply because I like his arm better and he's 2 years younger, but that's entirely subjective
Objectively, tough for me to see how anyone could distinguish either as 'far worse' than the other going by the numbers
Keuchel got started a year earlier in 2012, so he has about a full season's worth more career starts
They have both pitched in the Majors the past 4 seasons
Gray was better in 2013 & 2014
Keuchel was better in 2015 & 2016
Going into 2017, still looks like a toss-up to me
Neither played a full year but ...
Gray was much better
DK vs SG
W-L = 6-10 vs 5-3
IP = 153.2 vs 64
ERA = 5.15 vs 2.67
ERA+ = 78 vs 146
WHIP = 1.54 vs 1.11
SO9 = 7.2 vs 9.4
BB9 = 3.0 vs 2.8
WAR = -0.1 vs 1.4
Both had their first really good breakout year, but neither made AS game nor top10 for CY
Call this a draw
DK vs SG
W-L = 12-9 vs 14-10
IP = 200 vs 219
ERA = 2.93 vs 3.08
ERA+ = 132 vs 120
WHIP = 1.18 vs 1.19
SO9 = 6.6 vs 7.5
BB9 = 2.2 vs 3.0
WAR = 5.0 vs 3.2
Both had their career years, both made AS team, and Keuchel won CY while Gray finished 3rd
Keuchel was clearly better this year, though both were elite
DK vs SG
W-L = 20-8 vs 14-7
IP = 232 vs 208
ERA = 2.48 vs 2.73
ERA+ = 157 vs 143
WHIP = 1.02 vs 1.08
SO9 = 8.4 vs 7.3
BB9 = 2.0 vs 2.6
WAR = 7.2 vs 5.8
Both regressed badly, missing time with injuries, and finished with their worst full seasons in the Majors
Keuchel was less awful this year, but both were terrible disappointments
DK vs SG
W-L = 9-12 vs 5-11
IP = 168 vs 117
ERA = 4.55 vs 5.69
ERA+ = 87 vs 70
WHIP = 1.29 vs 1.50
SO9 = 7.7 vs 7.2
BB9 = 2.6 vs 3.2
WAR = 0.5 vs -0.5
Almost identical 162 GM Averages to date
DK vs SG
W-L = 13-12 vs 13-11
IP = 219 vs 213
ERA = 3.78 vs 3.42
ERA+ = 104 vs 112
WHIP = 1.26 vs 1.20
SO9 = 7.2 vs 7.6
BB9 = 2.6 vs 2.9
WAR = 12.5 vs 9.8
These are the incumbents they need to upgrade (assuming Gattis, Marwin, White, and Marisnick are the bench guys):
There are plenty of FA options in the OF and at DH. And having Gattis allows them to look at the 2nd/3rd tier guys at C. There are no FA SP I would consider a worthwhile guaranteed upgrade over Fiers. Gonna have to make a trade there.
Take out 2013, and see how the numbers compare over the last 3 years. Keuchel has the advantage in each of the three seasons in ERA, ERA+, FIP, WHIP, SIERA, xFIP, & xFIP-.
Sonny Gray throws harder, but is also right handed.
Yes, I would not trade Bregman. And I would not want to trade Springer either, but if it's for an elite Ace, I could see the Astros having to part with one of their core guys, which is where Springer and Gattis could come in. I think Bregman has one of the brightest futures on the Astros roster.
I like the bullpen - Harris, Devo, Giles, Gregerson, Gustavo - I don't see a need to spend major $$ for an upgrade. I'd much rather upgrade:
1) SP, specifically a #2 and/or #3 pitcher, allowing us to move out Fiers, at a minimum. This is likely to happen via trade, and Archer is a guy I REALLY like. Maybe Sonny Gray could be bought low as well?
2) C or DH - I'm tired of Castro. Is Wilson Ramos a FA? If so, I'm sure he's going to cost major $$, but I'd love Ramos/Gattis for C/DH. Moving Bregman or Gurriel to LF should be enough of an OF upgrade, and I think 1B belongs to Valbuena.
What ace is Springer *or* Gattis going to get you?... Let me answer that: none. No one is trading the Astros an ace pitcher if the return is Springer or Gattis; Gattis has limited trade value and Springer is the oldest of the Astros' nucleus.
Best way to get an ace is to trade young MLB talent... AND a prospect that could be a possible future ace.
For the Astros, the only viable prospect that fits that mold is Martes... and I don't see them parting with him or Musgrove.
Id be okay with a deal involving Springer, Musgrove and a prospect. It'd certainly hurt, I'd do it.
Honestly if it takes Bregman and maybe a guy like Martes I'd think long and hard about that. Bregmans gonna be a stud but thats what it takes to get a top ten pitcher. I doubt bregman will be a top ten position player.
I would trade Feliz/Fisher/P.Tucker/Moran for Pineda/Romine and sign a wildcard bringing Bucholz back home.
Sign Holiday in FA
Trade Reed/Paulino/Gustave/Teoscar for Blackmon
Bring back Valbuena
These moves could be made and they wouldn't have to give up the guys I like the most. Martes/Tucker/Whitley. There would still be plenty of talent to make deadline deals.
The lineup would be stacked
I would make those trades in a heartbeat, which tells me that the Yankees and Rockies would not.
I agree that you aren't getting an Ace for Springer or Gattis
But to say that Gattis has limited trade value is laughable
I know alot of people are him have been on him for a while for differing reasons, but a catcher that can hit 30+ HR's has plenty of trade value. Luckily for us, it's not likely we will be trying to trade him so it likely doesn't matter
I wouldn't trade Bregman. Before the trade deadline I said that I would, but after seeing his abilities at the major league level, he would be off limits
While i agree that a top 10 pitcher is worth more than a top ten position player, the chances of one of them breaking down and not having a lasting career is a lot higher for the pitcher.
I would try as hard as I could to make a package with Musgrove/Martes/Tucker/Feliz/Reed or whatever combo of prospects we have to acquire a guy like Archer or someone in that range
The Core of Correa, Bregman, Altuve, Springer, Lance, Dallas...I would not mess with
I would trade Forrest Whitley in a package for an Ace just because he is at least 3 years away. But Tucker should challenge for a roster spot in 2018. As far as Martes goes, I would also trade him in a package. Have not seen him pitch in person or video. He may end up being the next Johnny Cueto but the Astros need to win big in 2017.
We also are seeing the consequences of not adding a starter last year in free agency. Last year the Astros had interest in Cueto and Samardzija and didn't sign either one. As a result there is even more pressure on the Astros to fill holes in their rotation, and with fewer choices in free agency.
The Cubs addressed their rotation issues over multiple seasons.