1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

Offensive PER's of the Rockets

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Spacemoth, Nov 18, 2013.

  1. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2007
    Messages:
    9,486
    Likes Received:
    3,549
    I didn't know where else to bring up the topic, and really when it comes to the top 50, probably top 100 posters on this BBS at understanding advanced stats, I'm not on that list. Nonetheless, I have noticed a trend towards improved individual efficiencies across the board from the guys that comprise the bulk of our rotation. I knew that this would be a daunting task going in, so I waited until a day off to write it all out. Below are the individual PER's of our primary rotation players by the END OF THE YEAR for the past few years, basically since the Yao-McGrady era ended. I also included a horrible stat there for the weighted average. I didn't take into account how many games each player played, nor the efficiencies of other non-rotational guys who also got minutes. So it's a horrible number I know, but still it serves my purpose here.

    Rockets 2008-2009 (MPG Player Name PER)
    35.5 Ron Artest 15.6
    33.9 Shane Battier 10.7
    33.6 Yao Ming 22.7
    30.3 Luis Scola 17.1
    25.0 Aaron Brooks 13.0
    21.7 Kyle Lowry 15.1
    21.3 Carl Landry 17.7
    19.4 Von Wafer 14.8

    Weighted Average PER: 15.92

    Rockets 2009-2010
    36.5 Trevor Ariza 13.4
    35.6 Aaron Brooks 16.0
    35.5 Kevin Martin 17.1
    32.6 Luis Scola 17.2
    32.4 Shane Battier 11.1
    24.3 Kyle Lowry 15.5
    21.6 Chuck Hayes 11.7
    20.1 Chase Budinger 14.1

    Weighted Average PER: 14.66

    Rockets 2010-2011
    34.2 Kyle Lowry 16.5
    32.6 Luis Scola 18.4
    32.5 Kevin Martin 21.5
    30.8 Shane Battier 12.8
    28.1 Chuck Hayes 16.2
    22.3 Chase Budinger 14.2
    21.3 Courtney Lee 12.6
    17.2 Goran Dragic 17.7
    16.9 Brad Miller 16.4
    16.7 Patrick Patterson 16.8

    Weighted Average PER: 16.47

    Rockets 2011-2012
    32.1 Kyle Lowry 18.9
    31.6 Kevin Martin 16.6
    31.3 Luis Scola 15.5
    30.3 Courtney Lee 12.6
    28.6 Chandler Parsons 13.3
    26.5 Goran Dragic 18.0
    24.1 Marcus Camby 19.6
    23.2 Patrick Patterson 11.6
    22.2 Sam Dalembert 17.0

    Weighted Average PER: 15.90

    Rockets 2012-2013
    38.3 James Harden 23.0
    36.3 Chandler Parsons 15.3
    32.2 Jeremy Lin 14.9
    30.0 Omer Asik 14.9
    25.2 Carlos Delfino 13.4
    17.7 Francisco Garcia 11.1
    17.4 Patrick Beverley 15.4
    15.9 Greg Smith 16.2

    Weighted Average PER: 16.07

    Rockets This Season So Far:
    39.8 James Harden 21.7
    38.5 Chandler Parsons 15.9
    35.7 Dwight Howard 19.2
    33.8 Jeremy Lin 19.4
    28.9 Patrick Beverley 11.8
    21.7 Omri Casspi 13.7
    20.9 Francisco Garcia 10.6
    18.8 Terrence Jones 13.1

    Weighted Average PER: 16.48

    Compare that to the gold standard, the San Antonio Spurs, who always to me seemed to have a billion guys with above average efficiencies.

    Spurs 2012-2013
    32.9 Tony Parker 23.1
    31.2 Kawhi Leonard 16.5
    30.1 Tim Duncan 24.5
    27.5 Danny Green 14.2
    24.7 Tiago Splitter 18.7
    23.2 Manu Ginobili 19.2
    22.8 Boris Diaw 12.0
    21.8 Gary Neal 11.6

    Weighted Average PER: 17.91

    Spurs This Season So Far:
    31.5 Tony Parker 20.5
    28.3 Time Duncan 15.4
    28.3 Kawhi Leonard 17.4
    25.0 Danny Green 14.1
    24.2 Manu Ginobili 14.9
    24.1 Boris Diaw 18.3
    22.7 Tiago Splitter 18.0
    20.7 Marco Belinelli 14.6
    15.5 Patty Mills 18.0

    Weighted Average PER: 16.88

    What say ya'll? Is Morey's plan finally playing out? Are we finally approaching that Spurs state of nirvana where we don't have to rely on any one guy, where everyone can play 30 minutes or less and just be ridiculously effective doing it? Also FWIW, that 2011 Rockets squad really overachieved relative to their talent level, but probably underachieved relative to their efficiency stats. What a horrible collapse.

    I think our team this year has tremendous upside. Just look how much better we are in efficiency compared to last year, with Harden and Parsons and Beverley playing injured, and people are STILL griping nonstop. There's lots of cause for optimism this year. And the Spurs might just be fools gold if they keep these stats up. Not like Tim Duncan's getting any younger.
     
  2. FTW Rockets FTW

    FTW Rockets FTW Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2011
    Messages:
    27,724
    Likes Received:
    21,379
    Is there any reason why you have excluded Asik from the Rockets PER list?
     
  3. willwmc

    willwmc Member

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2013
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    3
  4. IzakDavid13

    IzakDavid13 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2011
    Messages:
    9,958
    Likes Received:
    798
    If I remember correctly, Asik excluded himself from the Rockets PER...
     
  5. AvgJoe

    AvgJoe Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2009
    Messages:
    3,634
    Likes Received:
    388
    Man....spurs are getting old, especially Duncan and Ginobili. Huge drop in PER. Granted PER doesn't mean much and sample is small, but considering their age, those two are declining for sure. Glad to see Howard and Lin sharing some of the load from Harden.
     
  6. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2007
    Messages:
    9,486
    Likes Received:
    3,549
    I'm not trying to be cumulative, only representative of the rotations at the end of the year or in the case of the current team, the rotation at present. Maybe it'll change today, who knows.
     
  7. AvgJoe

    AvgJoe Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2009
    Messages:
    3,634
    Likes Received:
    388
    Mostly just Lin and the insertion of Howard. Bev and Harden dropped, and hope that is due to their injuries. Casspi replaced Delfino, and TJones is lower than Greg Smith, but I see more potential from TJones though.
     
  8. dayanm

    dayanm Member

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2012
    Messages:
    302
    Likes Received:
    2
    PPS is inflated by FT's. DH averaged 11.2 FTA per game, on a rough estimate (assuming a 75% of possesions ended with a shot, and about 10% FTs comming from and-1's), that translate to about 11.2*.9/2*.75=3.92 shots. So he's adjusted PPS is about 1.19. We need others to be adjusted as well for comparison,

    Here's adj_pps for a few top scoring PF's
    Player Adj_PPS
    Kevin Love, PF 1.268188809
    Dirk Nowitzki, PF 1.258603736
    Blake Griffin, PF 1.2516226
    Carlos Boozer, PF 1.250693802
    Dwight Howard, PF 1.193429433
    Paul Millsap, PF 1.192003018
    Anthony Davis, PF 1.163616118



     
  9. meh

    meh Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2002
    Messages:
    15,096
    Likes Received:
    1,728
    Using collective PER kind of diminishes the point of it. It's really better to just use overall team offensive rating or any other per-possession offense stat.

    The reason is because PER is tied to usage rate. Higher usage rate leads to higher PER. However, if you take a team collectively, the usage rate adds up to 100%, which reverts back to it being no different from team offensive efficiency stats.
     
  10. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 1999
    Messages:
    58,572
    Likes Received:
    45,272
    Btw. What does "weighted average" mean. Number of games? Because I'm pretty sue the math in PER already takes into account MPG
     
  11. JBar

    JBar Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2013
    Messages:
    626
    Likes Received:
    17
    How do they calculate points per shot? Shouldn't it be either TS%*2 if they want to include foul throws or eFG%*2 if they don't. Lin's PPS is much higher than either of those.
     
  12. JBar

    JBar Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2013
    Messages:
    626
    Likes Received:
    17
    By the way, PER isn't just offense: it includes defensive rebounds, steals, and blocks.
     
  13. meh

    meh Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2002
    Messages:
    15,096
    Likes Received:
    1,728
    It doesn't.
     
  14. JBar

    JBar Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2013
    Messages:
    626
    Likes Received:
    17
  15. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2007
    Messages:
    9,486
    Likes Received:
    3,549
    Yes it's obvious there are better ways to judge a team's efficiency. I'm not trying to assess that. Maybe what I'm trying to say is...our PER's are getting better?

    One thing the Spurs have always been able to do, I feel, that almost no one else does well is have their backups come in and perform at really high levels. They also use their backups a lot more than anyone else. On the whole it seems to contribute to a better brand of basketball.

    I know Garcia, Casspi, and Beverley, the guys who effectively round out our rotation (depending on the Asik situation) have not yet taken their efficiency up to desired levels. Nevertheless, I still feel like this roster is primed to make its role players be more efficient, and maybe we'll see that played out this year, manifested in our #6 7 and 8 guys being more efficient. Plus there won't be any Shane Battier Chuck Hayes all-stars lending their intangibles and horrible PER's.

    I know it doesn't translate to wins like that, but somehow it makes me feel better inside that we are moving closer towards that Spurs ideal.
     
  16. damnbiochem

    damnbiochem Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2013
    Messages:
    155
    Likes Received:
    1
    what exactly is PER ??? on a side note was that a pun by writing "time duncan"
     
  17. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 1999
    Messages:
    58,572
    Likes Received:
    45,272
    This thread is yet another reason why PER is seriously overrated and actually unneeded vs a superior stat that existed over 20 yrs ago, but ESPN wanted their own stat
     
    #17 heypartner, Nov 18, 2013
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2013
  18. JBar

    JBar Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2013
    Messages:
    626
    Likes Received:
    17
    It's a general stat (like ws/48) that combines various statistical contributions and adjusts for pace and minutes played.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Player_efficiency_rating

    Could anyone help me out on my earlier question about PPS? It really has me baffled. I had always thought it was TS%*2.
     
  19. JBar

    JBar Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2013
    Messages:
    626
    Likes Received:
    17
    Not sure I follow how this thread demonstrates that.
     
  20. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 1999
    Messages:
    58,572
    Likes Received:
    45,272
    Alas. First tell me what does the thread demonstrate?

    After you answer that then tell me what PER use as its arbitrary normalizing average score
     
Loading...

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now