No offense, but that's a terrible way to run a team. The Astros need to find out what he's going to be and if he can help this team (this year, or in the future), so they know what pieces they may need down the line. Keeping him down because they are scared he will fail and lose trade value ... yikes.
He could also go into a slump at some point in AAA and still deplete the trade value. Tucker could go on a tear at AAA and enhance value. The key is which prospect helps the MLB team more now as opposed to White... and Alvarez fits the White role better than anybody else could.
I believe they need another starter for the playoffs this year and next year when Cole leaves. They need that more than they need Alvarez at DH. That's my opinion. We had a great offense in 2017. We won the world series because we added a stud starting pitcher in Justin Verlander. If Wade Miley is starting game 3 of the ALDS I don't like our chances. I don't think it's really even a question at this point. Whitley was possibly going to be that guy. He's been a total flop in AAA thus far. It would be amazing if Corbin Martin turned into that guy and has a year similar year to McCullers in 2015. However, he's probably going to be limited in terms of innings. I also thought maybe Josh James could be that guy. He's starting to turn it around but he's still missing the strike zone and I don't expect him to leave the bullpen this year. We have been somewhat lucky because the Yankees have Severino injured, Red Sox have Eovaldi out, then Clevinger and Kluber got injured, and now Glasnow is out for Tampa. If those guys come back I don't love our chances in the playoffs against healthy Severino, Tanaka, Paxton, German for the Yankees with their bullpen and offense, Glasnow, Snell, Morton vs the Rays, Sale, Price, and Eovaldi for the Red Sox, or even Bauer, Kluber, Carasco, Clevinger for the Indians. Get me a number 3 starter for the playoffs. Until then, I don't care if Alavrez sits in AAA all year because I don't think we are winning without another starter.
You’d rather sacrifice a potential stud’s production for a full year... for a #3 pitcher. Seriously can’t make this stuff up. (should also be mentioned that the Astros got freakin Verlander, an ace, without having to give up a stud AAA player).
1. potential stud... just like last year when people were calling Tucker "Ted". Or when AJ Reed was tearing it up in the minors hitting .340 with 34 bombs. Nobody knows what Alvarez is going to be at the major league level. If I could trade him as the center piece for a pitcher like Noah Syndergaard I'd do it in a heart beat. I'd rather have Verlander, Cole, Syndergaard leading the team into the playoffs this year and then Verlander and Syndergaard the next two years than having a "potential stud" DH. 2. It wouldn't be a "full year" because we are already a quarter of the way through the season. So that makes no sense. 3. A number three starter on this team that will be the number 2 starter next year after Cole leaves. 4. Astros won't add a Verlander type player. They can't take on the salary after paying Verlander, Altuve, Bregman, and Pressly. Plus Springer and Correa are having years that will crush the Astros in arbitration next year. That means we need a stud starting pitcher under multiple years of team control. That's going to cost significantly more than the prospects we gave up for Verlander. Most likely, it will cost 2 top 100 prospects and a little more.
You chastise hypotheticals, then go presuming a trade such as that... Alvarez raises his trade value significantly by coming up and being a proven MLB hitter. The Astros future is also brightened by Alvarez and Tucker turning into viable everyday players as some players get older, regress, or leave via FA. If they need a starting pitcher for depth, low level/high upside prospects are there... and they've already established that they're far more willing to deal those guys than guys they foresee being a contributor. Lastly, they need a viable DH option now. There should be a roster spot available. Why should he continue to waste more time hitting endless HR's at AAA, while White wastes a roster space with his production?
This is such an interesting scenario to me- you have like 4 or 5 things intersecting. 1) don’t want to lose White for nothing. With him showing up so fat and out of shape and struggling I think this matters less than you’d have thought in February 2) there isn’t really any spot for Alvarez to play every day and I don’t get the sense that they want him breaking in as a full time DH 3) his defense is likely below average, with a range of outcomes between horrible and passable 4) the rotating DH is working very well and is a good 162 game strategy, but... 5) come playoff time you want a big bat at DH and Jake as a late inning defensive replacement in a perfect world. So, you want a large enough sample size to know if Yordan is that guy 6) Tucker still might be that guy above Alvarez- you just can’t say with any certainty right now. I don’t think it’s about White and Kemp anymore keeping Alvarez and Tucker down, I think developmentally they don’t want them to be part timers and financially they don’t want to lose club control (tucker being up last year) or cheap future production to Super two (Tucker and Alvarez). The ideal would be to get out from under Reddick and Yuli without having to lose any value for them, if Alvarez or Brantley can play first- but that’s probably a move that makes more sense in the off season if tucker and Alvarez hit some in the majors in 2019. Stacked.
We lost 3/5ths of our rotation last year and are losing our number 2 after this season. I see that as a more pressing need than a corner outfielder or 1B/DH when we have Brantley, Reddick, Gurriel, and Springer under contract through next season. I don't want pitching "depth". I want a pitcher to matchup against Morton, Carassco, or Paxton in game 3 of the ALDS. I don't think they need a DH right now. Play Marisnick in CF. Move Springer to RF. Then rotate Brantley and Reddick into LF/DH. Every one of those hitters is hitting over .300 with the lowest OPS being Reddick at .823. When Altuve comes back Diaz can back up Gurriel at 1B to give him days off. White can sit on the bench until the super 2 deadline passes for Alvarez. Keeping him down another week or 2 saves the Astros millions of dollars if he is a stud.
Its far more likely they're going to continue to need offense from the non all-star portion of the lineup as some guys currently at a career high OPS clip will regress. Its also far more likely that they rebuild/re-tool the rotation without having to trade Alvarez. If you feel him and Tucker are the only ways Luhnow can get more pitching, you haven't been paying much attention. Its also not an automatic that Cole is gone next year. Lastly, you've written off Whitley who is still very much a part of this team's future.
CF Springer 2B Altuve 3B Bregman LF Brantley SS Correa DH Alvarez 1B Gurriel/Diaz C Chirinos RF Reddick C Stassi IF Diaz OF Marisnick White/Kemp/Tucker WOAH!
I was thinking about 1-6 myself. Glad someone else spoke to it. Reddick and Yuli have upped their game lately. Not sure I want to move them this year. Dont see Alvarez or Brantley moving to first. I'd like to get a look at Alvarez, but not sure I want to lose guys (Kemp/White?) for nothing to do so.
Not in disagreement, but I would point out that White is likely to regress back to being a below average player that provides some value instead of none/negative value. On a run of the mill World Series contender, White would probably get more of a chance to work through things. Astros are completely stacked right now with hitters, and there just isn't room for a guy that might rebound, might be done that can't 2B or 3B well.
Would be nice to see him up his avg to over .250 and over .700 OPS before shopping him like you said. Maybe can trade him for a low A ball flyer type of player for down the road. However it would be difficult for other teams to get interested in a player with White's physical appearance unless he's raking.
I don’t think any team will trade for Tyler White, even if he gets hot. There are tons of league average bats who can’t help on defense out there. Evan Gattis can’t get a job. Logan Morrison is in AAA. The list goes on. White would probably get claimed on waivers, but I’d be really surprised if they were able to trade him. Making room for both Tucker and Alvarez is going to be tough. Ideally they’d be a year later in their development, so they could seamlessly replace Gurriel and Reddick. As it stands, I would expect them to try to slow-play both guys until an injury makes room. Gurriel has no trade value and it wouldn’t make sense to cut him loose this offseason and eat $8M since he still is a playable big leaguer. Reddick stands a better chance of having appeal to another team; Houston might be able to package him with a 3rd tier prospect and a couple million dollars, which would save them $10M, which is meaningful considering how close they will be to the luxury tax next season. Whether they dfa Kemp and White (and relegate Gurriel to a bench role) to make room for Alvarez and Tucker, or keep Alvarez and Tucker down until something else changes, I’m ok with it. I really don’t want to see either of those prospects traded unless the return is amazing.
That already may have been the most important trade in Astros history. Josh Fields' appearance in the World Series was a -0.45 WPA for the Dodgers. The only player on the Astros to contribute more was the MVP of the Series, George Springer.
