Every draft has a player that is supposed to be a high lottery pick and they end up slipping to the end of lottery or even out of the lottery. Here is how it can happen: Hou: Ming Bulls: J Williams GS: Dunleavy Mem: Gooden Denver: Hilario Clev: Wilcox NY: Borchardt LAC: Wagner Pho: Stoudamire Mia: Woods Was: Jeffries LAC: Tskitishvili Mil: Haislip IND: Rush Hou: Butler
I have a hard time imagining him falling out of the top 5, much less being picked after Kareem Rush. You have to be open to all possibilities on draft day, but this is way, way too much.
I have a much easier time seeing him picked at #1 then #15 ... I really can't see him drop out of the top 6 ...
No way Butler goes after Woods or Rush. Just give it up. The only off chance of getting him is putting 15 & KT together to try and move up high enough. At best, that only gets us as high as Phoenix's slot, but I expect Butler to be gone to Denver or Cleveland first. Remember that if you like him so much, others must like him to. I highly doubt you've out-scouted all of the teams in front of us (except Golden State - they probably have chimpanzees going over their tapes). Teams do make mistakes, like letting Paul Pierce drop so far a couple of years ago, but Pierce would've never dropped to 15 & neither will Butler.
I understand your point and you are right that a lot of times, players slip and fall in the draft. But there is no way in the world that Caron will fall to #15. Others have said why and I point you to their explanations.
I don't think there is any possible way he drops to 15, but I do think there may be a very small possibility he drops low enough for the Rockets to trade up and get him. The main 2 teams I worry about are the Nuggets and the Cavs. If he slides past those 2, he might drop low enough for the Rockets to move up and get him. The 1st two picks are locks to be Ming and Williams. The next 2 picks will most likely be Dunleavy and Gooden. The Nuggets could go with the big man Wilcox in case Mcdyess leaves or they could follow their division rivals the Mavs(Dirk) and Grizzlies(Gasol) and go with Tskiti. Cleveland might be looking to tank next season to win Lebron James, so they might pass on the guy who will come in a contribute immediately (Butler) and instead opt for the players with greater potential (Wilcox/Tskiti/Wagner). New York and the Clippers are overloaded with 2/3 players so they would definitely not take Butler. Phoenix already has Marion, J.Johnson, and Penny so they are probably looking for a big man (Hilario, Stoudemire, etc.). That leaves Butler all the way down there at 10. It really is difficult to predict where Butler will go. He could either go really high or drop all the way down to 10. Nobody thought Pierce would drop to 10, or Griffin would drop to 7 last year.
Now the question is: if Butler falls in the 9-12 range is it unrealistic to trade up for him in exchange for the #15 and Kenny Thomas? If this were to happen we'd end up with Butler and Ming, possibly 2 out of the 3 best rookies in this class. Face it, this draft is only like 10 players deep, so if we can move up and steal Butler, like we did last year with Griffin, then let's do it. Now the question is: if Butler goes top-6 like some of you are suggesting, do we move up for Qyntel Woods? The guy's got tremdendous upside, and could end up being a star in a few years. Do we roll the dice on Woods, or pick up a streak shooter in Bostjan Nachbar. This draft is deep at the 3, so we have lots of options.
With all the players that are moving up, someone good should drop to our pick but it won't be Butler. Even if he did drop out of the top 6 (which would be a miracle), someone from 7-14 would say holy sh*t, why not pick up this kid Butler who was supposed to be top 3. It's the same scenerio as what Paul Pierce went through getting picked 10th.
Let's just put it this way: If Caron Butler falls to 15 and the Rockets select him, I will cry tears of joy and transfer to UH just to watch all Rockets games.
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/sports/1456386 The hard-knock life UConn's Caron Butler is the best player in the NBA draft. Or at least, Caron Butler believes he is the best player. Butler will not have to wait long to hear his name June 26. He is most likely to be taken fourth and won't fall past fifth. But as long as Butler has become an expert on Butler, he offered an interesting spin on his juvenile incarceration. He said part of his past is not something that should count against him. Rather, he said, it helped make him worth taking. "When these GMs sit down to make their decisions, these are very educated people, so they look at both sides of things and make a wise decision," Butler said. "I think they will say, 'This kid really changed his life around. This kid hasn't gotten anything, even a parking ticket, since 1992. He did a great job of keeping his life straight and his head on the right track, and everything has been a positive ever since.' I have never taken a step back. "Being in confinement, that was the worst thing that ever happened to me, and it turned out to be the best thing in my life. It was real hard, because there were people there (in juvenile detention) who were 18 years old, and I was nothing but 12."
Butler at 15 no way... I'll be very happy with Nachbar at 15, but that might not even happen. If not, then that means either Jefferies or Woods is gonna fall, then all we have to do is pick em up... Ming Griffin Nachbar, Jefferies, or Woods Mobley Francis I'll take that.
