Unless we can get Chris Bosh or one of the superstars (very unlikely), I see DM holding off on a 'significant' free agency trade until next year's deadline. Why? It just doesn't make sense when: 1) We don't know how well Yao can play until next year (and Yao remains the core that we build around) 2) Battier and JJ's expirings have highest value by the trade deadline, not the start of free agency 3) Chase, Hill and JT were first-year players last year, we may want to see their second-year development curve before trading them away (reports point to them all working hard during offseason) 4) We may want to see whether AB/Martin's ability to space the floor with 3-pt shooting can offset their lack of defense (or whether their defense can improve with offseason work) 5) Our Knicks draft picks' value have just increased now that both the Bulls and Heat have essentially created the cap room for 2 star players 6) Teams are usually more desperate to trade at the trade deadline than start of free agency. My dark-horse pick at next year's trade deadline: If Rockets are unable to land a free agent superstar, Yao is healthy and playing well (but needs minutes limited), Rockets are thick in the playoff hunt and needing a defensive center => Samuel Dalembert. Sacramento's a good trading partner for the Rockets. Rockets can offer an expiring-for-expiring (+ cash) trade, Cousins/Whiteside (& Thompson) may have the center position well-covered by then, and it'll only be a half year rental on Dalembert if things don't work out (more expensive than Gortat, but shorter obligation).
I don't think we'll wait at all; I'd give it a 60% probability that we make a big move before July ends. The Rox believe that they have enough assets to contend this year, with a couple of really good moves.
The OP said "Unless we can get Chris Bosh or one of the superstars." So what exactly is a big move to you? I agree with the OP; if Morey can't get his hands on a big name guy, we will stand pat with the roster we have, unless something changes within the course of the season. Brooks / Lowry Martin / Budinger Ariza / Battier Scola / Patterson Yao / Hill If Patterson proves to be a better fit at the 5 than Hill? Scola / Hill Yao / Patterson Very solid 10 man rotation. Even if Yao takes a step back (knock on wood): Scola / Patterson or Hill Hill or Patterson / Hayes / Andersen Morey is a genius; he drafted a very solid, NBA-ready PF in Patterson, so that Hill won't necessary see time behind Scola, but behind Yao instead.
I think by the end of this month coming their will already be a differet team. I say its almost 60% chance now the way we drafted.
We have a severely unbalanced roster. There will have to be a trade or trades to remedy that. One true center, 2 point guards, 2 shooting guards and 11 forwards...
I love your idea for Dalembert. It makes sense too. They could use jeffries more than Dalembert. And Dalembert gives us that shotblocking presence and a guy who will be playing for his next contract. That's a real plan B. But I actually think it could work before the season starts. After all the free agent signings have cleared including Lowry and Scola then it would be a perfect time to pull the trigger.
PG- Brooks, Lowry SG- Martin, Budinger, Taylor SF- Ariza, Battier, Harris PF- Scola, Patterson, Hill, Hayes C - Yao (7'6), Anderson (6'11), Jeffries (6'11) I think we're fine, a better back up for Yao and a solid 3rd string PG would be great of course but overall not complain too much.
As long as this is true, we will never be a contender. At this point Yao is a great roleplayer who can complement a real superstar but will never carry a team on his own. Even in his prime Yao was not good enough to be the "core." The team played MUCH better with Yao out than with Tmac out, indicating that Tmac carried him when they played together.
last night, chicago cleared more cap space and i think they're a more attractive destination for lebron james and another superstar player. new york knicks is going to suck next year. time to celebrate with those draft picks that we have.
"You don't know what you're talking about." Is there anyway we can force that quote to be put in this guy's sig?
I still think they trade some of their less attractive assets(anderson, harris, etc.) or maybe Hill for a back up center. After that draft, I don't see the Rockets keeping Hill. Does Hill have a jumper? If not, SORRY, but Good-bye.
Not sure what your point is. Of course most big trades happen at the deadline as opposed to FA(ignoring S&Ts). This has nothing to do with the Rockets or Morey trying to be sneaky. It's just the way things work.
I have no problem with standing pat until the trade deadline. I think that's a great strategy, assuming we're not getting Bosh. .
Well, I don't want to quibble over the word, "big." The kinds of things I look to see before the end of July: A trade bringing Rudy Fernandez, or Anthony Randolph, or something like that, AND/OR a backup center, either a veteran, or any center that was drafted last night. AND/OR a brand new starting SF (Joe Johnson, please) AND/OR a backup SG AND/OR a trade for Rubio's rights, AND/OR bringing Llull over (I don't think he's signed that new contract yet). I expect to see 1-2 of these before July ends, and maybe 3 of them before Christmas.
I agree, the Rockets tried to make Yao into something that he wasn't. Which led to being overworked and injury plagued years. If you don't see dominance after 3 years, he isn't dominant.
I would be okay with a "minor" move in which JJ or Shane is moved, just to redundant for my taste when their expiring contracts could be used for something more useful. I think we are only one player away from being a DAM good team as constructed so waiting till the deadline to make the "BIG" move would be fine by me.
How come no one has considered Joe Johnson yet? He wants max money but teams will be reluctant to give it to him. If he can get a Max from us, then I'd say we can beat all the other teams for his services. Other than that, I have to say, ITS BOSH OR TRADE DEADLINE.
