We've had some really outstanding pitching performances this season, and through the first half or so of baseball we've yet to see a clear cut favorite for the NL Cy Young Award. Who do you think will eventually end up winning the award by seasons end? Here are my candidates: Chris Carpenter 14-4 2.34 ERA 137 K 33 BB 1.03 WHIP .218 BAA Roger Clemens, Houston Astros 7-4 1.47 ERA 113 K 36 BB 0.95 WHIP .189 BAA Chad Cordero, Washington Nationals 33/36 Saves 1.07 ERA 44 K 12 BB .99 WHIP .199 BAA Pedro Martinez, New York Mets 11-3 2.60 ERA 143 K 24 BB 0.82 WHIP .181 BAA Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros 12-8 2.54 ERA 99 K 29 BB 1.09 WHIP .238 BAA John Smoltz, Atlanta Braves 11-5 2.64 ERA 110 K 37 BB 1.14 WHIP .236 BAA Dontrelle Willis, Florida Marlins 13-5 2.83 ERA 97 K 26 BB 1.17 WHIP .258 BAA I don't think Roger has much of a shot. There are just too many deserving candidates, and people will (unfairly) focus on the win column. Dontrelle's going to fade out. Most of his stats are similar to his career numbers, and hitters generally figure him out the second time around. My favorites right now are Pedro and Smoltz, with Chris Carpenter as a dark horse. It'll be tough for Cordero since he doesn't have a lot of strikeouts or a save streak like what Gagne had a few years ago. What do you guys think? Who's going to fade down the stretch? Will the voters give it to the Rockets if he doesn't have 17+ wins? If not, who will win it?
Well, it's only fair that Roger not win the award this year if you use the same principle that got him the award last year over Randy Johnson. BUT - Didn't Johnson have like a 2.3 ERA? If Roger somehow continues at this 1.5 level, he has to win it. It's one of the greatest pitching seasons in MLB history.
I can't pick a favorite yet. Some of those guys will drop a little behind the pack by late August. On another note: John Smoltz is freaking amazing. The guy might not be a Hall of Famer, but to win the Cy Youngs and put together a decade or so of dominance, go down with a bad injury, come back to be a dominant closer and then return to starting--and post one of the best ERA's and W-L records in the league while doing it-- Amazing. Sick. Disgusting. Incredible. Wow. I hate the Braves. But, kudos to Smoltzy. #**%^#* Braves.
totally agreed. i'm thinking he needs at least 15 wins which he should get but an era that low would be insane. right now i'd have to go with carpenter but i expect oswalt to make a strong push. he's been virtually untouchable with ausmus catching him. the last game was a fluke that never would have happened had he not gotten hit in the hand.
I don't see how a starter can win the award without having even 1 complete game, but I guess Clemens did it last year. Carpenter on the other hand has 4 shutouts. I put value in that.
Pedro leads the league in BAA, WHIP, K's, & K/BB and is second in K/9. He's easily been the most dominant pitcher in the NL this year and deserves the award at this point in the season, IMHO.
I got Carpenter at this point. If he continues to win at this rate, you can't dismiss when you go on the hill, your team follows you to victory. I don't see the Cardinals slowing down anytime soon, either. As long as he stays healthy, it's his to lose at this point. But these stats are pretty compelling, not to mention NASTY! These stats are from ESPN.com and slightly differ from some others posted. Someone else can dig up the right ones or more updated figures. • Ranks 1st in NL in W (14) • Ranks 2nd in NL in SO (137) • Ranks 2nd in NL in WHIP (1.03) • Ranks 1st in NL in CG (4) • Ranks 2nd in NL in IP (138.1) • Ranks 2nd in NL in ERA (2.34) • Ranks 2nd in NL in WPct (.778) • Ranks 3rd in NL in BAA (.218)
At this point, how do you not give it to Carpenter? Clemens is having a ridiculous year, but Carpenter has him beat right now.
How can you say he has easily been the most dominant when he gives up more than a run more a game than Roger? Either way I think it goes to Carpenter...2nd best ERA, the most wins, and on the best team in baseball.
Unless he falters, it's Carpenter's Cy to lose. That said, a guady record can be sabotauged by 2 or 3 bad starts. We'll see how he performs down the stretch.
How do you not? Well, imo, the point of the game for pitchers is to prevent the opposing team from scoring runs. Clemens does this at a far greater rate than Carpenter or anyone else, so he is most deserving of the award. However, I agree with you in expecting Carpenter to win, but because of the same principle (team ability) that Clemens himself used to defeat a more deserving candidate (Johnson) last season.
Carp will do what he has always done - get hurt again. I am not wishing that on him but I have come to expect that from him. Oswalt could catch him in the wins column as well as ERA column. Oz is the dark horse. It will be very interesting in the end since both Cards and Stromiles will make the playoffs anyway.
The explanation of Pedro's dominance was given in my original post. Pedro's relatively high ERA is almost entirely a result of bad luck. Pedro's and Clemens stats, other than ERA and Wins, are almost identical, with Pedro's being just a bit better - better BAA, WHIP, K/BB, and K/9. They should have very similar ERA's. If you look at a stat called ERC (Component ERA), which is basically a theoretical ERA given a pitcher's Hits and BB allowed, it shows you how much external factors have affected a pitcher's ERA. Here are the ERA vs. ERC for the starting pitchers listed in the poll - Source: Pitcher - ERA / ERC Pedro - 2.60 / 1.41 Clemens - 1.47 / 1.67 Carpenter - 2.34 / 2.23 Oswalt - 2.41 / 2.57 Willis - 2.83 / 2.88 Smoltz - 2.64 / 2.72 You can see that most of the pitcher's have expected ERA's very close to their actuals, except for Pedro, whose is more than a run greater. The bottome line is that his ERA isn't as indicitive as his peripheral numbers are to just what a great season he's having.
I think its going to be pretty difficult for Clemens to win. With only 13/14 starts left he is going to need to get at least 8 or 9 wins to be in contention. Since he doesnt go deep into games his is more dependant on early run support and the pen in order to rack up a streak of wins. With his low win projection he will need to keep his ERA very low (Sub 2) in order to be in contend if another pitcher puts up 22+ wins. Also a factor against him is that he has not been as sharp after the all-star break over the past few seasons.
Interesting numbers, but the game is played in real life and not in theory. In theory the Nats should not be over .500 or even 12 games over .500 since they score less runs than they allow. Granted, they are coming back to earth now but the fact of the matter is that they are over .500 Secondly, I think you have a pretty hard argument trying to state that Pedro's ERA is simply the result of bad luck. If you take a little deeper look into the numbers you'll see why Pedro's ERA is that much higher than Roger's. With runners on base Pedro's ERA balloons to 5.53 over 42.1 IP while Roger's only goes to 2.88 over 50 IP. Then if you want to look further into those numbers you will see something else. Bases Empty BAA (Batting Avg. Against) Roger .195 / Pedro .158 Runners on BAA Roger .178 / Pedro .233 RISP Roger .108 / Pedro .232 So you can clearly see that Roger is just the better pitcher when things get tough and that this is what accounts for the difference in ERA and not simply luck.
How exactly is this number calculated? I've heard it referred to a lot, but never really understood how you dissect an inning and figure out an ERA with runners on base.
