Onward! Will N.H. Be Obama Territory, Too? ------- But compare the states of Iowa and New Hampshire and the landscape looks far less favorable for Clinton. The reality is, this is the state that always set up best for Obama, even when he was struggling here. The demographics and political culture lean more in the direction of Obama than toward Clinton. His goal now is to realize the potential that the electorate in New Hampshire offers. Look first at Iowa and where Obama did best. According to the National Election Poll entranced poll, Obama enjoyed a margin of better than 2-1 over Clinton among independents. He won overwhelmingly among young voters between the ages of 17 and 29 and among voters between the ages of 30 and 44. He was the clear choice of liberals. He beat Clinton decisively among voters with incomes above $75,000. The entrance poll questionnaire did not ask respondents to say how much education they had, so that critical measurement of the electorate is missing. But the Iowa Poll published two days before the caucuses in the Des Moines Register, which nearly nailed his victory margin exactly, showed Obama the clear choice of those with college degrees In virtually every demographic category where Obama found his greatest strength in Iowa, New Hampshire's electorate has at least as many or more of those voters, based on a comparison of the entrance polls from Thursday's caucuses in Iowa and from the 2004 Democratic primary in Hampshire. http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/01/04/will_nh_be_obama_territory_too.html?hpid=topnews
I'll skip the debates tomorrow because of the Rockets game. I think they are worthless anyway. Hopefully the Ron Paul people are happy so they can shut up about being treated unfairly. Can't wait to see what the polls show on Sunday. Contrary to a post in another thread, I've read that Hillary will not go super-negative for NH because there isn't enough time to pound out a new message. Supposedly she will draw more contrasts between herself and Obama. In contrast to the OP, NH has more older voters which would favor Hillary. I guess Obama would be the slight favorite until the post-Iowa polls come out. On the GOP side, I'm really interested to see the behavior of Romney's campaign to see how nasty they get. I predict McCain will win a close one.
Those two just don't like each other at all. I mean it's just downright ugly. You're right, it'll be fun to watch Romney's meltdown if he loses.
Guess we'll see if Obama's big win in Iowa translate into "Big Mo" in New Hampshire. If he takes that state, he's going to be tough to beat. Can Clinton come back? She's not Bill. I don't know if she can. Man, I would love to see McCain beat Romney. McCain has been acting more like the John McCain of old, recently, which is one of the reasons he's moved up (IMO). I'm glad to see it. Obama against McCain would make for an interesting '08 election, to put it mildly. Impeach Bush!
Check this out from Friday in New Hampshire. Ouch! http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/ January 4, 2008, 10:35 pm Democratic Audience Rebuffs Clinton Amy Chozick reports on the Democratic primary race in Milford, N.H. Hillary Clinton didn’t get the answer she was looking for when she finished her speech at the 100 Club Dinner, an annual event hosted by the New Hampshire Democratic Party. A subdued Clinton gave a condensed version of her standard stump speech at the event, which featured speeches from several Democratic candidates. She ended the talk by asking, “Who will be the best president from day one?” the crowd let out a huge “Obama!” cheer, standing on chairs and drowning out the Clinton supporters. A fired up Barack Obama, fresh from his strong win Thursday night in the Iowa caucuses, later took the stage. “In four days you can do what Iowa did last night. In four days, you can do what America will do all next year and that is transform this country and make it the kind of country we’re proud of, in four days time,” he said to a standing ovation of nearly 3,000 Democrats waving his signature “Hope” signs. He went on to address attacks against his lack of experience. “People say ‘Obama hasn’t been in Washington long enough. He has to be seasoned and stewed. We have to boil all the hope out of him.’ But you know what, that argument didn’t work in Iowa and it won’t work in New Hampshire. The gamble is to have the same old game plan in Washington with the same old players and expect a different result,” he said. The dinner was held at the Hampshire Dome, a giant enclosed sports facility, and also featured speeches by Bill Richardson and Dennis Kucinich, who is launching his presidential bid here. Richardson had a special line of gratitude to offer the audience and attendees, “I want to thank the candidates in this race who don’t have the political pedigree of others,” a not-so-subtle dig at Clinton. Speaking about the strength of the Democrats this year, Howard Dean, chairman of the Democratic National Committee and a presidential nominee in 2004, added a dose of self-deprecating humor to the evening and gave a mock scream, imitating his now infamous misstep after the 2004 Iowa caucus. “We’re going to take back the White House. Yeah!” Dean said with a tongue-and-cheek smirk as he pumped his fist like he did in 2004. The primal scream Dean let out after losing the Iowa caucuses became infamous over the Internet, dubbed the “I Have a Scream” speech. Meanwhile, long-shot Kucinich energized the audience when he came on the stage with his towering statuesque wife, Elizabeth Jane Kucinich. An impassioned Kucinich yelled into the microphone about injustice and reached into his jacket pocket to pull out a small, red constitution. Waving it like a preacher with a Bible, he said “This is our bible. This is what I will put my hand on when I swear my oath to the people and I’m prepared as your next president to do just that. I’m viable!” he said as he walked off the speech waving his hands and making Richard Nixon-like peace signs.
Giddyup - as a resident reasonable conservative, do you have a candidate you like far more than the others?
Obama's just recently started using this in the last few weeks, I think - I think its a hugely effective way to reinforce the idea of change and dismiss the experience issue in a short, simple sentence.
No -- if you require "far more" preference. I like some things about Huckabee, Romney, McCain, Paul-- not into Giuliani at all. Probably go for Romney at this juncture; he IS presidential-- which is important. On the Dem side, I liked Biden. Richardson is okay. I'm trying to like John Edwards-- have some friends who are strong supporters of his and his wife, Elizabeth, makes it easier to ignore the caricatures made of Edwards. Don't like Hillary. Obama is an admirable person-- just don't see him as presidential at this point. If I were voting today, I'd vote for Romney more for his leadership qualities and executive experience than anything. I'd love a Romney/Obama ticket. Americans need revitalizing.
Makes sense - I'm always just curious about Republican thoughts because it does seem like this is the first year in a long time where (a) there's no real establishment favorite which has always been a GOP staple and (b) there's no ideal candidate, it seems. I think Romney has an uphill battle, but if I were him, I'd spend everything I have left in the next four days and try to win NH. If he does that, all the McCain talk dies down; Huckabee is likely to falter at some point, which makes it Romney vs. Guiliani. I do think it's unfortunate that some of the good Dems (Biden, Richardson) had no shot whatsoever due to the media coverage of Obama/Hillary. It's good for the party because the more legitimate contenders, the more likely Hillary would be to win, but it does suck for them.
Agreed, in terms of who would make the best president out of the democrats, I agree it would be Richardson or Biden. But then again, that's like choosing the least crippled patient in the ward. They are the best of a sorry lot.
New rasmussen poll out this morning. 10p jump for Obama in one day. Obama 37% Clinton 27% McCain 31% Romney 26% http://www.rasmussenreports.com/
Count me a little skeptical of these numbers. That's too big a jump. Let's wait until tomorrow when the other polls chime in. I think Obama has a good chance to win NH, but this would suggest a blowout. If he wins, I doubt Obama beats Hillary by 10 points. Considering how I feel about Hillary and Romney, I love both of these numbers if they are true.
You are so weird. I have never said that. What I have said is that Rasmussen is a Republican polling firm, which is just a fact. And ever since I mentioned that fact in passing like three years ago you've been saying I didn't trust Rasmussen. You=weirdo.
Good for the NH GOP. -- GOP Pulls Out Of Fox News Debate The New Hampshire Republican Party has pulled out as a co-sponsor of tomorrow night's Fox News debate, due to the controversies surrounding the exclusion of Ron Paul. Fox News is barring Paul from the debate, with many people believing it is because of his opposition to the Iraq War. Bear in mind that Fox News is excluding Paul from the debate, despite the absence of any objective criteria that would shut out Paul and still include some of the other people they're inviting. For example, Paul got 10% of the vote in Iowa, while invited candidate Rudy Giuliani took only 4% and is at about the same place as Paul in New Hampshire polls. http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/new_hampshire_gop_pulls_out_of_fox_news_debate.php
That poll is more of a bump than I would have guessed for Obama. It seems like he still has an uphill battle in order to win in NH, but he stand a chance. It's an exciting thought.
