New Hampshire Primary

I don't think people change that much.

What changes is the definition of political labels like liberal, leftist, socialist, etc. It's always a moving target. What was once radical, becomes mainstream over time.

Obamacare was called radical change. Today it is the standard bearer of healthcare policy. Biden and Klobuchar want to further expand it, Buttigieg is already in "medicare for all who want it" territory, and Warren is simply running on M4A, but just not hammering about every time like Bernie. Even Republican voters now support government subsidies and other provisions of Obamacare.

So yeah the political spectrum shifts ever so slightly. That is the measure of progress.

Now, what is going to happening is that Sanders current positions and policies will become less radical and more mainstream in the coming years as millennials enter their 40s and takeover as the largest voting block.

 

Yeah , I get it - Facts only matter when they support your agenda , otherwise screw the facts.

 

Think about the people you know in all of your life...how many of those people literally go from left on a political scale to right? Truth is, there isn't much to back up that theory other than older people vote conservative and younger people do not.

What happens is what is a progressive issue today in 2020 becomes a traditional stance in 2050. Like say interracial marriage in the 50s was very progressive then, now? Now it's just a traditional stance that anyone would take outside of some racist person. I think the parties also shift a bit and people must remember that the GOP stood for different things throughout history (Same for DNC and any political party really)

Here is the pew research on generations and how they consistently vote...
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...ow-age-affects-attitudes-and-voting-behavior/

I think what is more likely to happen is that as younger generations age, the GOP will switch and adapt, but these younger voters when they are 50-60 views will likely not seem progressive anymore. Maybe they will want to hang on to their free healthcare while their sons and daughters will be wanting free robot maitnence because who can live without an robot taking care of your chores in 2060? Maybe those people will be saying we can't pay for that.

 

Hillary Clinton would be a good President. Problem is she is TERRIBLE candidate and campaigner. She comes off as Cold and Calculating. Thats why Obama bet her and thats why Trump was able to flip the 3 states to win (the black vote didnt turn out like she needed.

 

Given how there is little socio-economic mobility within our society, these people have little reason to assume that their tax burdens will change much as they age. They know what their tax burden is now and they are right not expect it to change due to simply them getting older.

The whole argument about free stuff buying electorate didn't seem to work for Andrew Yang all that much. He and Dave Chappelle offered us 1K a month as a hand out and yet he couldn't siphon off Bernie supporters in any significant enough way. I guess Bernie is offering more freebies, but I doubt an average voter can calculate how much money each policy is contributing to her/his bottom line.

The only stat I know for sure is that young people tend to be too busy to vote compared to other age groups. So yeah, I'd agree with @ghettocheeze that if anything, the generation of instant gratification is only going to increase and they will not really concern themselves with how to pay for things - they'll get the rich to pay for it all

 

Im on the Pete bandwagon right now but i would love for Klobuchar to be the nominee. She is so down to earth, pratical, and likable. She might motivate me to vote in my first primary

 

Dont follow him down this hole. He makes it personal and he claims to know people even when they say he's wrong. He is just incredibly arrogant

 

I don't know how to take this , seems like some sarcasm and some not ....

You don't think those college students voting for Bernie on college debt forgiveness are going to earn more in the future than they do currently ?

As for Yang's giveaway .... I don't believe anyone took him or his idea seriously.


The "generation of instant gratification" .... my parents said the same thing about me at one time.

 

Can't believe Klobes did so well. I didn't see that coming. Also, I'm a bit shocked at how close this was.


It's going to be a 4 horse race soon, I think. Klobuchar has more momentum than Pete, and that could be huge.


I still think Bloomberg will get the nomination, but something about going from Trump to the first woman Preside t makes me giggle. I really like Klobuchar more and more lately.

 

What scares me is I get the same vibe from Biden. He’s now proven to be a horrible campaigner. Very small amount of events in comparison to the other Dems. Can’t raise money from grassroots donors. Has a campaign strategy of hiding the candidate from media availability.

I’m not a Bernie super fan or anything but I feel 100% better now with him going against Trump in the general vs Biden. I guess I’m just late to the party though and that’s why months ago folks like Bloomberg freaked out about Biden’s weaknesses and got himself in the race whether it be for himself or to have the ability to transplant his campaign into a candidate like Pete/Khlo if they can prove viable.

I think Biden should get out sooner rather than later because it’ll actually be pretty bad for the Dems if Biden turns around his campaign enough to win the nomination and then has a horrible general campaign against Trump.

 

Mayor Pete’s problem has not been focused on yet: His Sexuality. Bible belt is going to be a problem. Trump will make reference to ever chance he gets.

Obama over came his name, his father’s islamic heritage, and the color of his skin with his message, embracing being bi-racial, energy, and a stand up opponent (John McCain). I actually think the Rev. Wright stuff helped prove he was a Christian, which was big for some.

For any Democrat, they have to turnout the black vote and the 18-30 demographic. Now, the need the Hispanic vote to increase. If they could get 50%-60% of eligible Hispanic voters to turn out, Texas would be a BLOWOUT for Democrats.

 

Call it freebies. Or call it Bernie's desire to fuel economic growth from actual increase in disposable income vs fueling an economy based on consumer debt which has been the case for the past 50 years hence the boom and bust cyclical economy.

Increased consumer debt during booms, default during recesions and in a 50 year span increase real wages by 1% while corporations take in record profits. I'm sure many are fine with that status quo, but eventually as time moves forward less and less people will be satisfied with that status quo and eventually you won't have a Bernie revolution where the worst thing that happens is a surrogate calls Bloomberg an oligarch on cable TV. Eventually you're going to have a Bolshevik or French Revolution style revolution and wishing we only had a Bernie revolution.

 

I think that’s true in general in your behavior and how you live, but I’m not sure if that translate to policy you support. This topic has been studied before and if I recall it properly, the political leaning or policies people support early on stick around. What “young” people support is more of a function of the current time and era of their upbringing and early adult years. It doesn’t change later in life, generally. It’s likely that trump and gop has lost two generations for life.

 

Sure she had a greater chance of winning at this time in 2016 and she had a more established campaign organization. What she didn't have was anything to erase the fact that she was Hillary Clinton. She made some blunders in her campaign strategy. Anything could happen.

To me, she was never a quality candidate and I was never going to vote for her.

 

We're all catching Klomydia

 

Remember when people were freaking out over low Iowa turnout a week ago?

 

New Hampshire turnout being up is a good sign. But given a choice between having high turnout in Iowa or New Hampshire, I'll take Iowa ten times out of ten.

 

But the two elections are not comparable. NH takes a few seconds to vote. Iowa requires an evening commitment - there are all sorts of people (single moms, evening employees, etc) that simply can't participate. And less committed voters never will participate there, whereas those are the voters that increase turnout in a regular election. Iowa turnout is not really indicative of a regular election's turnout.

It's not like Iowa voters are not interested and New Hampshire voters are. The anger is across the country - turnout won't be a problem in 2020. We just have a tendency to read way too much into the latest single data point and overinterpret what they might mean.