This whole discussion about Dmo for Dragic got me thinking about the long term, about Durant, about the salary cap. I realized that I can't play the chess that Morey does, so I'll ask Clutchfans (cough -- Bima -- cough) to do so. First, about the near term. If Morey thinks Dwight is healthy for a playoff run, he focuses on this year and deals Dmo for Dragic if absolutely necessary. With Dwight, we have enough interior depth. Second, the long term. Do we even want to sign dragic long term for big money after we trade for him? I don't think it's an unrealistic scenario where next year, Durant makes it clear that he isn't going back to OKC. DMo could be a critical trade chip to land Durant. Is there any reasonable scenario where we could trade for Durant next year at the deadline or in the offseason in a SnT. - would we sign Gogi for big money with the belief that we could use that salary plus Dmo, picks, etc to land Durant? If so, signing Dragic long term is good to improve the team and as a piece to land the big fish. All I know is that Harden probably has the best insight as to Durant and Morey is about 19 steps ahead of all of us. If Lebron, Wade and Bosh could conspire years in advance to form a super team, I don't see why Harden might not have a pact with Durant. I've always felt that Durant and Westbrook aren't compatible (ie, the only person who can stop Durant is Westbrook), and that Westbrook is so talented in his own right that he needs his own team (like what happened to Harden).
If you think OKC is going to trade the Rockets both Harden and Durant under any circumstances, you may need help playing checkers.
Dude, I struggle with Tic Tac Toe. I hear what you're saying and considered that also. But if Durant says I'm out and I want to goto Houston when I'm a FA and only Houston, what's Presti going to do. He'll get what he can, tell the fans Durant wanted what he wanted, and hands were tied. Presti will get roasted anew for having dealt Harden, which would be the reason Durant would want Houston, but that die has been cast. If Durant forces the situation, what's Presti going to do?
We can extend Dragic two years with a player option or team option for next year when the salary cap rises. We could possibly sign Durant then go over the cap to retain our free agents. Same as the bosh/parsons situation. But its too soon to think about all this.
there are way too many variables at play here unless Morey knows for sure that Kevin is going to leave and will go to where he has the best shot of winning a title. Even with that Kevin will have to leave money on the table (via the bird rights OKC has) now players dont normally do that (which makes what Dwight did more impressive) but he also isnt hurting for money both from his NBA deal and endorsements. Now lets say he is going to leave then you will pretty have the other 28 NBA teams wanting his services - now maybe only 10-12 of these teams will have the means to sign him as a free agent. Of those teams how many will have teams that can contend that next season? I do not think Durant will want to go to a team where he will have to wait 1-2 seasons for another talent to develop or sign. So that 10-12 will be probably like half so 5-6 teams will have a realistic shot to sign him. Now Morey will have to decide how he will try to get Durant because if Durant wants to play alongside Harden again then I think all avenues will be considered including trading away Dwight or not resigning other players etc. With the cap increasing in a couple of years things will be different too. Right now though I am sure Morey has it in his plans but he also has access to way more information on what Kevin may or may not want to do. I mean what if OKC wins it all this year or makes it to the finals and wins it next year? Kevin may change his mind and stay because to him the money will be wherever he goes - he wants to win rings.
Chess is a game of options. The key to basketball chess is to not get funneled in on one target. So looking at the big picture the most current targets are Love, Butler, Dragic, and even guys like Lamarcus and Marc and Millsap even though the is low likelihood of any of those guys being moved save for Dragic. If we can't land one of those guys now at the appropriate value then you make moves that put the team in the best position for the playoffs and the summer to be able to continue upgrading the asset stash for the next major trade or free agent signing. The key to always being in winning is to not trade for and sign players to contacts that they will outplay.
I wonder if any of our very knowledgeable Clutchfans would be willing to make flowcharts of all these trade, signing, etc. maneuvers. I think it would help immensely towards understanding the different places these things could end up based on player availability, salary caps, etc. I just don't understand it enough, but I know some of you do, and it's always impressed me. If we could decide on the best person to do it and they were willing, I'd be happy to buy a decent flowchart program for them to make things easier. There are a lot of good free programs out there as well. I just think so many of these threads could be understood much more easily with a graphic compared to the long, technical paragraph discussions (which are still great, btw).
As long as Dragic (on a max or near-max deal) can be traded to any of the many teams that will have copious amounts of cap room in 2016 -- even if it is just for a second rounder -- then re-signing Dragic shouldn't prohibit the Rockets from being able to get Durant in free agency in 2016.
