I know 90% of you don't care, but some of you guys tend to ask me lots of questions (which is awesome) and I've found that it's easier to keep them confined to one thread, so here we go. I'm going to get it out of the way early -- I don't think we match last season's results. I know some of you think the Nugs were a fluke and didn't have to play anyone in the playoffs, but I honestly believe they were the second best team in the league by the time their season ended and would have beat anyone in a 7 game series except for the Lakers. That team was clicking, and was a joy to watch. Plus, let's not forget the fact that up until the fourth quarter of game 5, the Nugs were dead even with the Lakers. Game 3 is going to haunt me for the rest of my life. Honestly, I think the Nuggets are better this year. Getting rid of Kleiza is an addition by subtraction. I loved Dahntary, but he was visciously overrated by the time the playoffs ended. I think Aflalo will be better than Dahntay was on the offensive side of the ball, and only a slight downgrade defensively. Why am I excited about this season? Ty Lawson. Two years ago, the Nugs had the 20th pick in the draft and were looking at Lawson. The team refused to give him a promise though (they really liked J.J. Hickson) so he returned to college for another year. The Nugs traded that first rounder to Charlotte for a "future first". When Lawson was available this year, they used that pick to grab him. I'm thrilled. First off, he's a UNC guy so Karl might actually play him as a rookie. Secondly, it'll reduce both AC and Chauncey's minutes. Chauncey needs to be kept to around 30 mpg as he started to crash in the WCF last year. AC's minutes need to be kept to 15 as he is horrible. We still have some trade exemptions as well. I really doubt the team uses them, but lately I've heard some noise coming from the team about making a move. They NEED a big to come off the bench who can provide a little scoring in my opinion, but those guys don't exactly grow on trees. The Denver Post was floating a S. Jax rumor for a while, but I don't buy that one at all -- it just doesn't fit. Why am I nervous about this season? I keep thinking last year was a perfect storm. Nene & KMart have had injury problems. While they're not nagging injuries that will keep popping up year in and year out (like hamstrings, etc.), they're still prone to problems. We also lack frontcourt scoring, and if JR starts at the 2 guard then we are going to have very little bench scoring. Chauncey's a year older. Mostly though, I'm terrified of George Karl. Logically, the Nugs should trot out the following starting lineup: * Chauncey * Aflalo * Melo * KMart * Nene First guy off of the bench is JR. First big is Bird. Then Lawson and Balkman should be the other rotation guys with AC, Joey Graham and Malik Allen getting spot minutes depending on the matchup. I know it's only the pre-season, but I'm nervous that Karl only played Balk in 6 of the 8 games, whereas Joey Graham played in 7 (starting 3) and Allen played in all 8. Expect the Nugs to start slow. JR is suspended for 7 games to start the year (the suspension is deserved, but I still don't know why it's over a year AFTER the fact. Why not last year?) and Balkman is out for 2. Combine that with a brutal 10 game start (back to back vs Jazz, then @Portland, followed by Memphis at home, a 6 game road trip and then the Lakers at home) and 6-4 will be a success. Finally, we have the fact that Portland and San Antonio got a lot better. I think the Lakers got worse (I still think you guys stole Ariza and getting rid of Artest is addition by subtraction), but not worse enough for the Nugs to really catch them. All in all, I see the Nugs finishing with the fourth seed (2nd in the Northwest) and losing in the second round of the playoffs. Unfortunately, to the Lakers for the third straight year.
great analysis. I don't think chemistry with Karl will be a problem because of Billups. He and Karl seem to hit it off last season, so I think Billups can go along way towards getting Karl settled. Unfortunately I don't see the Nugs being more than Laker/Spur fodder. They are really lacking in the bigs department-Nene and Martin really can't stand up to Duncan and Gasol. Lawson is an awesome acquisition though, and definitely the most NBA ready pg in the draft, I don't know why he slipped as much as he did. Also I don't think Portland upgraded that much. Sure they got Miller, but he's not the pg for that team. He and Roy clashes so much ingame that Mcmillan is already thinking of having him become a sub. Agree with your placing, but I think they'll lose to the Spurs instead. I think they're gonna have the best record in the West this year.
Out of curiosity, just how badly did you and Nuggets fans in general react to what Simmons said about you guys?
I agree with pretty much everything you said. I really think the one thing the Nuggets are lacking is a big man who can do it all. Nene and K-Mart are solid contributors, but unfortunately in the West, you need more than just a contributor in the middle to be considered a Championship contender. I think on most nights, Denver will have the advantage in the back court, but it's the lack of depth in the front court that will catch up to them in the playoffs. The other glaring problem I see is a lack of offense off the bench. JR Smith has made a career of scoring 30 pts off the bench, but he's the true definition of feast or famine. On nights when he's off, there is absolutely NOTHING he's good for. That's all fine and dandy over an 82 game season, when you might get some scoring from other places, but when you're talking in terms of a 7 game playoff series, it becomes a real liability. I see the Nuggets getting home court in the first round, and beating a team like the Hornets or Jazz, but that's about it. The Lakers or Spurs are going to be too tough to handle this season.
Anyone who takes anything Simmons says seriously needs help. I enjoy most of his stuff (when he's not talking about the Celtics), but he's nowhere near the expert that he thinks he is. Give me writers like KD and Hollinger over Simmons any day. That said, I'm assuming you're talking about how the team could tune Karl out and has the potential to disappoint this year. Honestly, those are my concerns too. That said, I think we'll be closer to the "disappointment" that Basketball Prospectus projects than Simmons'. BTW, speaking of KD, from Ball Don't Lie: Anthony Carter(notes), who inexplicably got 20.5 minutes per game in the preseason, missed 18 of 23 shots, a 21.7 percent run. Rookie Ty Lawson(notes) played three fewer minutes per game, but shot 56 percent. Wakey-wakey, George Karl.
How do you think chauncey and melo will do in terms of stats? I have both of them on my fantasy team.
One word of advice from my observation in the playoffs: Give Melo the ball! You had the Lakers by the throat if only Melo would take over the game at the end like Kobe and Lebron. Yeah that is the only thing keeping you from winning it all. Melo has to become a killer at the end of games and finish off a team in crunch time. Can he get there? Absolutely. Will he? That's the big question. Good luck!
Disclaimer, I don't play fantasy ball so I'm not 100% certain what stats you're looking for. Billups -- I think his scoring will drop slightly (he was 17 or 18 pg last year, I see 15 or so this year) but his assists should go up (probably around 7-8). Rebounds stay the same. Melo -- About the same as last year. I think his scoring goes up slightly (closer to his career avg of 25 than last year's 22 or so). Rebounds stay the same, assists stay the same. EDITED to add: Really? Honestly, I haven't watched games 5 or 6 from last year yet (still get too angry), and while Melo slowed down in the series I'm not blaming him. He had a nagging injury for a while, plus Trevor Ariza & Kobe were absolutely phenomenal defending him near the end. Problem was that no one else was stepping up when Melo slowed down (see Billups getting run down, JR going cold, Nene getting neutralized, etc. etc.). I've never had a problem with Melo being a "killer" or "clutch". In fact, I think 82games.com has him as one of the most "clutch" players in the league. Dude has hit some cold blooded game winning shots in his career.
I am not speaking of game winners of buzzer beaters, this about how he plays with under 5 minutes to go in the game. I noticed in the Lakers series too often Chauncey would dribble around, make very little effort to get Melo the ball and then either Billups or JR would take a bad 3 pointer. Melo needs to demand the ball and command the attention of the defense once he has it. Look at Lebron and Kobe in tight games they just take over with under 5 minutes to go. Melo needs to have that same instinct.
You say in this paragraph that you think the Nuggets "are better this year", but won't "match last season's results". Are you saying they'll have a better record but will probably lose in the 2nd round to the Lakers/Spurs?
I love Afflalo! Reminds me of Elie. Why has KMarts fantasy value dropped? Anderson will be getting extended minutes or is it the injury issues?
Two questions: Do you think the Birdman has any chance of developing an offensive game? In, say, 3 seasons do you expect Ty Lawson to be a starter?
I think if the 2008-09 Nugs played the 2009-10 Nugs, the 09-10 Nugs would win. Unfortunately, the 09-10 Nugs have to play the 09-10 Spurs & Blazers instead of the 08-09 versions. No. God no. Yes.
The Nuggets scare me to death. Thankfully, I think they'll find more than a few ways to beat themselves this season.
Lol why? We're not exactly a contender this season, and the Spurs and the Lakers are a bigger threat anyway....
Nugs4, great OP. I wish there were more fans of other teams like you that post solid stuff in the NBA Dish. When the playoffs started, I felt the Nuggets were a sorry #2 seed. Now that it's over, I admit I was wrong and they were probably the 2nd best team in the NBA. Going forward, I like switching out Dahntay Jones for Arron Aflalo. Chauncey will have a tough time matching last season. So will J.R. Smith IMO. So will Nene. So will K-Mart. Not sure the Nuggets are better than last year unless Melo becomes more efficient and stays healthy the entire season. I always feel any team coached by George is subject to a collapse. 4th or 5th seed sounds about right if the players don't get sick and tired of Karl. That has me concerned though.
I guesstimated earlier in the thread that he'd probably have around 25 ppg. I know he's hit or miss with opposing teams fans, but I love watching him. Do I wish he was more mature? Obviously, but he might be the best pure scorer in the game. I know you're not a huge Nene fan, but I honestly think last year was him just getting started. If he can stay healthy (which sadly, is an if) then I think last year is just scratching the surface. Now that Melo is more team oriented, and we have a PG who actually passes, he's finding his comfort zone more. I also think JR will be able to match last season. Even with his knuckleheadedness, he should still be able to match last year's numbers. I am 100% with you on the Billups & KMart comments though. KMart was HUGE last year. I don't think people realize how great he was for us. His defense will still be great, but some of those ugly jumpers might not fall at the same frequency as last year. As for Billups, I'm hoping we can off-set his gradual decline (and I do think it will be gradual mainly because his game isn't based on athleticism) by playing Lawson more and limiting Chauncey's minutes. Karl scares me. I think he was amazing last year, but there's always the chance that he flips out and does something stupid. I know the front office really liked Coby Karl, but they were afraid to bring him in because they didn't trust George (a lesson that I wish the CU Buffs would have learned by now...sigh). I think Chauncey helps dull GK a little with some of the more aggressive personalities on the team, but yeah...it's going to be an adventure. I just don't want to lose to the Lakers again. I've been to four Nugs-Lakers playoff games the last two years, and I've seen fights break out at every one between Lakers "fans" and Nugs fans (and yes, I say Lakers "fans" because these people aren't true fans...they're bandwagoners. If you don't know who George Mikan is, sit down and shut the hell up).
Great getting the lowdown from you, Nugz. Nice job. Good luck with the season, except when you play the Rocks.
If you ever wonder why last year was so special to me, look at this. Also, Nugs play the Jazzholes in 45 minutes on ESPN. Rockets brothers, I ask you to unite with me in your hatred for Utah and cheer the Nuggets on. Think of it as the lesser of two evils.
