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My (Very) Early Top-30 Prospects for 2014

Discussion in '2019 NBA Draft' started by Sen89, Nov 16, 2013.

  1. Sen89

    Sen89 Member

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    Obviously this will change considerably as the season progresses. This is more an early season reference point/who to watch list.

    Not Included (Have them slated for 2015 entry): PG Kasey Hill; SG Aaron Harrison; C Kaleb Tarczewski; PF Chris Walker; C Dakari Johnson; PF Marcus Lee; SG Jabari Bird
    Next 5: PF Cory Jefferson; SF Sam Dekker; SF LaQuinton Ross; PF/SF Alex Poythress; PG Jahii Carson

    #30: Perry Ellis | PF | 6’8” 230 | Kansas | 20
    What’s to Like: Efficient, skilled and smart offensively.
    What’s Concerning: Below-average size, lacks great athleticism. Low ceiling?

    #29: Isaiah Austin | C/PF | 7’1” 225 | Baylor | 20
    What’s to Like: Great skillset and range for his size. Stretch-big potential.
    What’s Concerning: Soft on the glass, soft overall. Lacks assertiveness.

    #28: Jordan Adams | SG | 6’5” 220 | UCLA | 19
    What’s to Like: Good size, natural scoring instincts, ballhawk defensively.
    What’s Concerning: Average shooter, not a standout athlete.

    #27: CJ Fair | SF | Syyracuse | 6’8” 220 | 22
    What’s to Like: Nice size and athleticism, smooth J.
    What’s Concerning: Lacks ball-handling/creating ability for 3 spot. Already 22.

    #26: Dwight Powell | PF | 6’10” 235 | Stanford | 22
    What’s to Like: Great size and skillset for position. Fluid for size.
    What’s Concerning: Lacks physicality, average defensively. Already 22.

    #25: Rasheed Sulaimon | SG | 6’4” 190 | Duke | 19
    What’s to Like: Picture-perfect jumper, underrated athlete.
    What’s Concerning: Below-average size, can he contribute elsewhere?

    #24: TJ Warren | SF | 6’8” 230 | NC State | 20
    What’s to Like: Big-bodied scorer with mid-range game and instincts. Efficient.
    What’s Concerning: Below-average athlete, what else can he do?

    #23: Semaj Christon | PG | 6’3” 190 | Xavier | 21
    What’s to Like: Great size and athleticism. Natural shot creator. Upside?
    What’s Concerning: PG skills. TO prone. Below-average shooter.

    #22: Doug McDermott | SF/PF | 6’7” 230 | Creighton | 21
    What’s to Like: Fantastic shooter who can score in a variety of ways. Very efficient.
    What’s Concerning: Tweener. Lacks athleticism. Defensive liability.

    #21: Willie Cauley-Stein | C | 7’0” 250 | Kentucky | 20
    What’s to Like: Elite mix of size, athleticism and fluidity. Upside.
    What’s Concerning: Court-awareness. Very raw on both ends.

    #20: Adreian Payne | C/PF | 6’10” 235 | Michigan State | 22
    What’s to Like: Long athlete who can run/jump. Nice form/range on his J.
    What’s Concerning: Already 22. Has a lung condition. Isn’t incredibly physical.

    #19: Montrezl Harrell | PF | 6’8” 245 | Louisville | 19
    What’s to Like: Strong, active athlete with a great motor. Great finisher. Long arms.
    What’s Concerning: Average height. Skill-level is lacking.

    #18: Jerami Grant | SF | 6’9” 205 | Syracuse | 19
    What’s to Like: Ridiculous length, great athlete, high-level defensive potential.
    What’s Concerning: Raw offensively. Lacks creating ability. FT shooting.

    #17: Rodney Hood | SF | 6’8” 200 | Duke | 21
    What’s to Like: Fluid/athletic wing with a smooth J. Still improving. Defensive upside?
    What’s Concerning: Average length. Creating ability.

    #16: Noah Vonleh | PF | 6’10” 240 | Indiana | 18
    What’s to Like: Great length/size. High IQ for age. Nice skill level, great rebounder.
    What’s Concerning: Developing offensively, not an explosive athlete.

    #15: Dario Saric | PF/SF | 6’10” 230 | Croatia | 19
    What’s to Like: Has perimeter skills in a 4 body. Good motor.
    What’s Concerning: Poor foot speed/below-average athleticism. Inconsistent shooter.

    #14: Gary Harris | SG | 6’4” 210 | Michigan State | 19
    What’s to Like: Strong SG with great outside stroke. High IQ, good defender. Solid athlete.
    What’s Concerning: Height/length are average. Not dynamic with the ball.

    #13 Andrew Harrison | PG | 6’5” 210 | Kentucky | 19
    What’s to Like: Big PG with a tight handle, competitiveness, creating ability and upside.
    What’s Concerning: Has looked raw thus far. Ball-dominant. Inconsistent J. Immature?

    #12 Mario Hezonja | SF/SG | 6’7” 200 | Croatia | 18
    What’s to Like: Natural scorer/shooter with solid athleticism. Competitive. Can create for himself.
    What’s Concerning: Needs bulk, defense is lacking. Immaturity?

    #11: Mitch McGary | C/PF | 6’10” 265 | Michigan | 21
    What’s to Like: Wide bodied big with great feet. Good finisher, solid athlete. Strong, with nice hands. Great on the glass.
    What’s Concerning: Not great defensively. FT% is poor. Upside?

    #10: Glenn Robinson III | SF/SG | 6’6” 215 | Michigan | 19
    What’s to Like: Smooth athlete with nice frame and fluidity. Great looking J. Efficient scorer. Upside?
    What’s Concerning: Unselfish to a fault, almost passive. Ball handling needs work.

    #9: Aaron Gordon | PF/SF | 6’8” 220 | Arizona | 18
    What’s to Like: Truly an elite athlete. Fantastic finisher with high activity level. Has some offensive skills to build upon.
    What’s Concerning: Tweener potential. Lacks size/bulk to play inside, lacks ball-skills and consistent J to play outside.

    #8: Wayne Selden | SG | 6’5” 230 | Kansas | 19
    What’s to Like: Thick build; very strong. Good athlete, plays maturely for age. Can score, pass and create.
    What’s Concerning: Jumper consistency. Doesn’t fully utilize his physical tools?

    #7: James Young | SG/SF | 6’6” 210 | Kentucky | 18
    What’s to Like: Great size and athleticism. Lefty with a great J who can light it up. Plays well without the ball. Upside.
    What’s Concerning: Developing ball skills. Shot selection?

    #6: Joel Embiid | C | 7’1” 240 | Kansas | 19
    What’s to Like: A blank canvas without many caps (just started playing). Huge/long C with great athleticism. Very fluid, natural shot-blocker. Despite rawness, shows promise on O.
    What’s Concerning: Extremely raw, obviously. Needs proper coaching to develop. Risk?

    #5: Dante Exum | SG/PG | 6’6” 185 | Australia | 18
    What’s to Like: Smooth combo with great size. Advanced skillset for age; natural scorer and passer. Great feel for the game. Growth potential.
    What’s Concerning: Lacks muscle. Jumper is still developing. Not a standout in any area?

    #4: Marcus Smart | PG | 6’4” 225 | Oklahoma State | 19
    What’s to Like: Huge PG with a winner’s mentality. Great motor; a true impact defender. Good athlete who gets to the rim with his strength. Rebounds well; Intangibles. A leader.
    What’s Concerning: Not a natural PG. Ball-handling for position. TO prone. Inconsistent outside shooter. Shot selection.

    #3: Julius Randle | PF | 6’9” 250 | Kentucky | 18
    What’s to Like: Ridiculous strength and motor. Finishes extremely well, good athlete. Great ball skills for size/position. Dominating rebounder. Uses his body very well.
    What’s Concerning: Post-game needs polish, relies too much on “bully ball”. Not an impact defender. Height/length are average.

    #2: Jabari Parker | SF | 6’8” 240 | Duke | 18
    What’s to Like: Elite skill-level for position/age. Great size/fluidity for size. Fantastic scorer, shooter and shot creator. Natural passer and possesses a natural court awareness.
    What’s Concerning: Good but not great athlete. Can he stay with elite NBA 3s on D? Body is chunky. Doesn’t always use his size to his advantage.

    #1: Andrew Wiggins | SF | 6’8” 205 | Kansas | 18
    What’s to Like: God-tier athlete, inside and out. Perfect frame. Explosive finisher. Elite defensive potential, high-level offensive upside.
    What’s Concerning: Ball skills need quite a bit of development. Unorthodox/inconsistent jumper. Needs bulk.
     
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  2. Grapenutz

    Grapenutz Rookie

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    I like your top 5 except for Exum. Embiid will be a top 5 pick
     
  3. Sen89

    Sen89 Member

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    Thanks.

    I have my doubts about Exum as well...He doesn't stand out athletically or in any specific area, as I said in the OP. He reminds me of Doug Christie, or a rich man's Alec Burks (or hell, even Reece Gaines - only as a prospect ha). He does have an advanced/mature/complete game for his age though, and other scouts seem to be raving over his recent performances since be broke out at the Nike Hoop Summit. I'll keep an eye on him this year, because I haven't been that impressed with him thus far, but with some (DX) grouping him with the top-3, there's clearly something special they see.

    You may be right about Embiid. I was floored by his natural tools in the Duke game, even if his numbers weren't special. Not only does he have prototypical size/length/athleticism/fluidity for his position, he looks like a naturally skilled guy who just hasn't gained the necessary polish yet. He shows promising passing ability, form and movement on O, despite his minimal experience playing the sport. With experience and coaching, he could develop a ton on that end. Defensively he seems destined to be a force. It's still very early to say though, and he still has a long, long way to go before becoming a legitimate NBA C.
     
  4. javal_lon

    javal_lon Member

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    Wiggins will be a great NBA player... Cold blooded in the clutch...
     
  5. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    Wiggins has the higher ceiling; Parker the higher floor.

    If you're Wiggins you will always have the following names attached: Marvin Williams, Michael Beasley, Derrick Williams, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. The one thing they all had in common was that their elite athleticism made them unrateable in the NCAA context. No one was there who could force such players to adapt in the face of comparable athleticism, which is exactly what the NBA will be, night in and night out.

    With guys like Durant, Kyrie, Derrick Rose, you knew that those skills would translate to the next level. It's like the Sky Hook. There's no guarding it. With Wiggins it's still a bit of a black box. Could he be a Lebron type? He's one of like three players per decade who would have a shot. Could he be a Luol Deng type? Perhaps, but remember that Luol's ball skills were tremendous even as a freshman. I saw this firsthand, watching from the stands as Luol's triple threat quadruple fake wrecked the hell out of his opponents in college. Or could Wiggins even go so far as to be a bust? I have to admit, he's one of those guys where the fear isn't completely ridiculous to hold on to.
     
  6. Voice of Aus

    Voice of Aus Contributing Member

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    Solid list, u realise just how stacked it is when even picks outside the lotto have great value
     
  7. True Rocket

    True Rocket Member

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    I really like Jordan Adams at UCLA. I wouldn't be surprised seeing him go in the lottery when it's all said and done.
     
  8. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    I think Aaron Gordon is overrated and his NBA potential is limited, but he has a tremendous motor that could carry him a long way.
     
  9. mikol13

    mikol13 Protector of the Realm
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    Have you been watching Vonleh at IU? Love this kid, has a world of talent and will get so much better. 4 double doubles to start his career. Might be against inferior opponents thus far, but he's the real deal.
     
  10. Sen89

    Sen89 Member

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    Update (didn't change the ages, if their birthday passed, lol)

    #1: Andrew Wiggins | SF | 6'8" 205 | Kansas | 18 | [0]
    - Some have grown critical of his passivity, but I really think the packed paints, half-court centric game, and inside-first philosophy of KU isn't ideal for him. His biggest knocks at the moment (lack of bulk, developing ball-skills and assertiveness) are all things that I think he'll develop at the next level.

    #2: Jabari Parker | SF/PF | 6'8" 240 | Duke | 18 | [0]

    #3: Joel Embiid | C | 7'1" 245 | Kansas | 19 | [+3]
    - He's really got it all in terms of a foundation on both ends. Still has quite a bit of developing to do. obviously. But the impact he already makes (at this early stage of development) is undeniable.

    #4: Marcus Smart | PG/SG | 6'4" 225 | Oklahoma State | [0]
    - I'm starting to see a lot of SG potential in Smart, in a ball-dominant/creating role (ala Wade/Harden). He plays bigger than his size, and could have an early D-Wade type transition (in his function, not play style).

    #5: Julius Randle | PF | 6'9" 250 | Kentucky | 18 | [-2]
    - It's not that Randle has dropped, it's that the two above have risen. I do think he'll be a high PPG/RPG guy, but many NBA PFs who fall in that 2-stat window don't make as big of an impact as their 20-10ish numbers would suggest.

    #6: Dante Exum | SG/PF | 6'6" 185 | Australia | 18 | [-1]

    #7: Rodney Hood | SF | Duke | 6'8" 210 | 21 | [+10]
    - He really looks the part of a great scoring offensive wing. That said, there's definitely a noticeable drop-off after #6.

    #8: Noah Vonleh | PF | 6’10” 240 | Indiana | 18 | [+8]
    - Has really impressed with his length/motor/skill level.

    #9: Wayne Selden | SG | 6’5” 230 | Kansas | 19 | [-1]
    - I'm a big fan of his mature game, but I'd like to see more assertiveness.

    #10: James Young | SG/SF | 6’6” 210 | Kentucky | 18 | [-3]
    - Is still raw, and has some efficiency issues, but has lots of tools.

    #11: Aaron Gordon | PF/SF | 6’8” 220 | Arizona | 18 | [-2]
    - It's hard for me to see him not becoming a 'tweener. But the "upside" keeps him high.

    #12: Zach Lavine | SG | 6'5" 185 | UCLA | 18 | [+ a lot]
    - The huge riser on boards all over. Has a great stroke and athleticism, but isn't physical and hasn't learned to fully utilize his gifts (is mostly a shooter at this point). Has a very enticing upside though.

    #13: Willie Cauley-Stein | C | 7’0” 250 | Kentucky | 20 | [+8]
    - The quintessential raw freak athlete with defensive upside C prospect

    #14: Montrezl Harrell | PF | 6’8” 245 | Louisville | 19 | [+5]
    - The quintessential high-motor physical undersized athletic PF prospect.

    #15: Dario Saric | PF/SF | 6’10” 230 | Croatia | 19

    #16: Jordan Adams | SG | 6’5” 220 | UCLA | 19 | [+12]
    - This guy has some great tools, from his size to his scoring ability (22ppg in 30 mpg) and his defensive impact (3.3 spg). If he lasts, he'd be a great fit for the Rockets.

    #17: Gary Harris | SG | 6’4” 210 | Michigan State | 19 | [-3]
    Has been less efficient in a more featured role.

    #18: TJ Warren | SF | 6’8” 230 | NC State | 20 | [+6]

    #19: Andrew Harrison | PG | 6’5” 210 | Kentucky | 19 | [-6]

    #20 Mario Hezonja | SF/SG | 6’7” 200 | Croatia | 18 | [-8]

    #21: Jerami Grant | SF | 6’9” 205 | Syracuse | 19 | [-3]

    #22: Adreian Payne | C/PF | 6’10” 235 | Michigan State | 22 | [-1]

    #23: Doug McDermott | SF/PF | 6’7” 230 | Creighton | 21 | [-1]

    #24: Mitch McGary | C/PF | 6’10” 265 | Michigan | 21 | [-13]
    - He's been recovering from an injury, so maybe this drop isn't fair, but my early ranking was based on him really enforcing himself inside.

    #25: Jahii Carson | PG | 5’10” 175 | Arizona State | 21 | [+10]
    - Small explosive scorer. Projects as a bench player, but a an impactful one.

    #26: Semaj Christon | PG | 6’3” 190 | Xavier | 21 | [-3]
    - Hasn't displayed much of an improvement in his PG skills thus far.

    #27: Spencer Dinwiddie | SG | 6'6" 205 | Colorado | 20 | [+?]
    - Smart, good-sized SG who projects as a solid role player.

    #28: Glenn Robinson III | SF/SG | 6’6” 215 | Michigan | 19 | [-18]
    - His complete and utter lack of assertiveness has been a huge disappointment.

    #29: Aaron Harrison | SG | 6'5" 210 | Kentucky | 19 | [+?]
    - Don't think he should declare, but if his brother does, he probably will too.

    #30: CJ Wilcox | SG | 6'5" 190 | Washington | 22 | [+9]
    - An absolute sniper who'd help out a team at the end of the 1st.
     
  11. True Rocket

    True Rocket Member

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    No Jordan Clarkson?
     
  12. Pull_Up_3

    Pull_Up_3 Member

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    Grodon is terrible

    will lol at whoever drafts him top 10
     
  13. Willard Decker

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    ^His game is somewhat raw, and it's not clear how well his skills will translate to the next level. But he's hardly terrible. I don't think any team in the top ten should select him, as he's not the type of player one can build around, but he would be a solid addition to a team that already has primary scorers and is in need of an athletic finisher.

    --Captain Decker
     
  14. CertifiedTroll

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    I agree with your list; however, if I were gm.. I would slide down Wiggins right below Exum on your list and would bump smart up past embiid. But I would probably get fired.
     
  15. Sen89

    Sen89 Member

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    He's been killing it, and he should at least be on my "to watch" list, I agree. Right now, I'd like to see if he can keep it up into conference play.

    He's not a PG from what I've seen (NBADraft.net seems to see PG potential in everybody, for whatever reason), and a 6'4" 190 PG is a lot more enticing on the surface than an SG of the same size.

    The age old upside/readiness dilemma doesn't apply to Wiggins much, in my opinion, because he's not built to dominate the college game, and the growing he has yet to do seems far more likely to come to fruition than for other "raw" prospects of the past. Maybe his hype plays a role in that expectation, but the flashes are definitely there.

    Parker and Randle look incredibly NBA ready, but have questions about their defensive transition. Embiid is a load of potential that needs to be groomed properly (and Wiggins is not that different, but he's not a big, and he's slightly less of a risk). Smart has the mentality and tools, but you wonder what position he's going to end up at. Exum is also an unknown for his competition level/international status.
     
  16. CCorn

    CCorn Member

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    I feel like this draft is going to disappoint. A lot of good players, but I don't see the next Lebron out there.
     
  17. Willard Decker

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    How is that a disappointment? LeBron James is a once-in-a-generation type of player. We can't expect someone with his capabilities to appear to every draft. It's not realistic. The hype surrounding some of these players may be out of proportion, but I don't see this group as being on the verge of a letdown. There are four or five players (at least) who will likely achieve All Star status, as well as several others who will become productive role-players. That's an excellent draft by any standard.

    I think people's expectations need to be scaled back somewhat. Even past drafts that yielded Hall-of-Fame-caliber players also included players who didn't pan out. The 2014 NBA Draft will likely take a similar course.

    --Captain Decker
     
  18. Normalus

    Normalus Member

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    Marcus Smart probably most overrated player there.
     
  19. Voice of Aus

    Voice of Aus Contributing Member

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    Dante was just crunching the last tournament he was in, he was posting triple double games mostly and had a 17 assist game one of them. The man is just special
     
  20. SK34

    SK34 Member

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    Underrated*
     
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