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My standard for reasonable contracts (just for fun~)

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by NorzanHusto, Mar 9, 2016.

  1. NorzanHusto

    NorzanHusto New Member

    Mar 9, 2016
    Likes Received:
    Just for fun and plz bear with my English :)

    The value of a player can be evaluated by the following parts:
    1. personal skills: using PER
    2. importance to the team: using Win Shares and WS percentage among his teammates
    3. chemistry: team record
    4. health condition: #game played

    A. Base salary = (team salary cap / 10K / 2) * WS% + PER * #game played
    Using WS% to show how much percentage of the cap this player should be paid, plus his contribution per game (PER) multiplied by #game played
    * team salary cap / 10K is just for calculation, and will be multiplied back at the end

    B. Weight of team record = sqrt(record)
    To avoid making a huge difference between players in good teams and those in bad team, using sqrt() to shrink the gap

    C. Bonus rate = WS/#wins
    Using the ratio between personal Win Shares and total number of winning games as a bonus rate

    D. Penalty = #game played / (#game played + #game missed)
    Attendance rate (%)

    Finally, a reasonable contract for a player can be calculated as Base salary * Weight * (1 + Bonus) * Penalty * 10K

    For example, for James Harden, this season he has played 63 games without missing any, PER 25.5, WS 9.9 (all Rockets players get 29.3 in total, so WS% = 33.79%), team record 31-32(49.2%), and the team salary cap is 70m for 15-16 season. So at this point, I would like to say that J.Harden's contract should be:
    (70m / 10K / 2 * 33.79% + 25.5 * 63) * sqrt(49.2%) * (1 + 9.9 / 31) * (63 / (63 + 0)) * 10K = 25.8m

    Same calculation for some other players:
    S.Curry: 32.2m
    R.Westbrook: 27.7m
    K.Durant: 22.6m (because he missed several games)
    L.James: 24.1m
    K.Leonard: 22.1m
    C.Paul: 21.8m

    All these numbers may change by the end of this season, because several parameters like PER, team records, etc. are still not fixed.

    By the way, based on this standard, Harden is worth 30.1m while Curry is 29.9m. MVP ranking WAS really close :)

    Here are the numbers for Rockets' players:
    Howard: 10.9m
    Capela: 9.7m
    Ariza: 9.6m
    Brewer: 6.2m
    Beverley: 5.9m
    Jones: 4.8m
    Terry: 4.2m
    Lawson: 3.1m (...)
    Harrell: 1.9m
    DMo: 0.3m
    K.J.M.: 0.3m

    Have fun guys :)
    #1 NorzanHusto, Mar 9, 2016
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 13, 2019

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