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My list of successes and busts in the 2013 draft

Discussion in '2018 NBA Draft' started by basketballholic, May 21, 2013.

  1. basketballholic

    basketballholic Contributing Member
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    Players I believe will be successful

    Trey Burke
    He proved himself on the big stage. Played his hiney off. He'll be a very good starting point guard in the NBA barring injury for the next 5-10 years. A team like Utah or Orlando or Detroit would do themselves good if they can get him.

    Victor Oladipo
    Hard worker, great athlete, great attitude, and skilled. He hits on all cylinders. May not achieve superstardom but will be a star and a great player for whoever he plays for. Good value pick.

    Cody Zeller
    Like Oladipo, his teammate, great work ethic and great talent, loves the game, dedicated, and extremely smart. He's underrated. I think he makes the transition to PF and plays a role as a PF/C for the next 5-10 years successfully. Probable All-Star and may become a superstar.

    Alex Len
    Great size and skills. Good, clean kid with a good head on his shoulders and hard worker. I think he'll be a top 10 center within 2 seasons and a top 5 center within 4 seasons. I think he has the potential to surpass DeMarcus Cousins and I think he's gonna be better than Andre Drummond from Day 1 (simply because he knows the fundamentals and can shoot FTs and is self-motivated)

    C.J. McCollum
    He's got an NBA point guard game with his ability to score, shoot, finish, and dish. He's a star. Will push Burke as the best point guard to come out of this draft. Will be better than Mike Conley.

    Mason Plumlee
    Will be a solid rotation big for many years as long as he stays healthy. Probably won't be a star. But he's a winner with a great intelligence and a great (although limited) skill set. He doesn't do a whole lot of things on the court but what he does do he is very good at.

    Gorgui Deng
    See Plumlee. Maybe more skilled than Plumlee with the jumper. He'll be a very solid rotation big for many years.

    Michael Carter-Williams
    I think he is underrated. No, can't shoot for .... right now. But he's got everything else. I think the bigger more open NBA game works in his favor. Could be a great defensive presence against guys like Westbrook. I think he'll be very successful.

    Reggie Bullock
    Very underrated. Mario Elie with a much better jump shot. Like this kid a lot as a role player. Really like him.

    Jeff Withey
    Omer Asik defensive potential. Omer Asik offensive potential. Could be a great backup center on a contender.

    Tim Hardaway Jr.
    Got skills and he's got his dad's nasty on-court toughness. Like him.

    Glen Rice Jr.
    If he slips into the second, he would be a huge steal. One of the best athletes in this draft and we already know the shooting pedigree. He played at the same level as the top NCAA teams and thrived this year. If he keeps his head screwed on straight, he could be a steal. I think he will.

    Ricky Ledo
    He will be a better NBA player than most every SG drafted ahead of him save for Oladipo. I actually think if a team drafts him and puts him at PG that he could become a star. I think he's a big PG in hiding.

    C.J. Leslie
    Great size and athleticism for the SF spot. Good base of skills to build from. Great attitude and work ethic. I think he finds a lot of success drafted in the second round.

    Erik Murphy, Ryan Kelly, Kenny Kadji
    Similar players with some differences. Tall guys that can shoot the 3 ball usually etch out a decent career in the NBA. And they all have other skills as well. Probably one and possibly all 3 may go undrafted. I think at least two of them wind up having a better NBA career than over half the guys that get drafted.

    Players I believe will be busts or will severerly underperform their draft position

    Nerlens Noel
    Kid doesn't weight 200 lbs. He's already blown out a knee. Will never be an offensive player. I don't think he can put on enough weight to become an effective player. I think he could be out of the league in 4 years like Greg Oden or he could meander through a very pedestrian career. Don't think he will be nearly as good as Alex Len. Does not have the frame to carry much more weight.

    Ben McLemore
    he's from one of my favorite schools BUT he wilted in the big moments. Sure he can shoot a jumper. But what else can he do? Some think he's Ray Allen. I'm thinking he becomes Nick Anderson.

    Lucas Nogueira
    See Nerlens Noel but even worse. This kid should not even be drafted. He's terrible.

    Jamaal Franklin
    Undersized shooting guard that can't shoot and can't handle.

    Tony Mitchell
    May not bust but he should not go in the first round. Best athlete in the draft but may have worst attitude in the draft. These types of guys you take a risk in the second round. If he goes in the first, he could severely disappoint.

    Dario Saric
    Bust. Don't see him making it in the NBA.

    Mouhammadou Jaiteh
    Thabeet all over again.

    Mike Muscala
    Good kid. Has some good skills. Too slow, too slow, too slow. Will not make it.


    ......................

    Everyone else I am neutral on. Don't see any possible good to great players like I listed above. Some of the smaller point guards could eke out decent careers since today's NBA rules seems to help them so much. Don't have any definitive feel for most of the rest. Bennett has good size but he's not long. Otto Porter looks like a good shooter/scorer but he's young and rail thin. So, neutral on all those kinds.
     
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  2. RudyTBag

    RudyTBag Contributing Member

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    First of all, Nick Anderson was an excellent player in his prime.
     
  3. basketballholic

    basketballholic Contributing Member
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    Yes. And he was more multi-dimensional than McLemore is right now. I don't know if McLemore will be as good as Nick. But he did fold up in the big moment like Nick did. Of course, he was just a freshman. But how many times do you see freshman in college who really do something in the NBA fold up in crunch time in college? I think McLemore could severely disappoint.
     
  4. jvu

    jvu Member

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    Solid opinions... I Ben McLemore will be a role player possible 6th man.

    I'm rooting for Glen Rice Jr., Glenn Robinson Jr., and Tim Hardaway Jr.

    Gotta love the 90s. oh and also Archie Griffin and Noel
     
  5. alethios

    alethios Member
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    He has one thing the others don't - DLeague experience. It's what may help him get drafted in the 1st round, but hopefully he will slip to #34. The problem is that he's a tweener (SG/SF), but his attitude has improved tremendously in DLeague, so I hope we get him.
     
  6. dragonz

    dragonz Member

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    cant be that many success in this draft, my estimate is only 4-5, but again it depends on how do you call it success
     
  7. basketballholic

    basketballholic Contributing Member
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    Successes
    1. Lottery picks that become quality starters for their team and have productive NBA careers. Of course anything better than this is even more success.

    2. Non-lottery first round draft picks who become a top 7-8 rotational player in the NBA averaging over 20 minutes per game within their first two seasons and play an efficient high-iq style of basketball that causes them to be attractive players to multiple teams around the league.

    3. Second round draft picks that stick on an NBA roster and become top 8 rotation players within their first 3 seasons.

    Failures
    1. Lottery picks that do not become quality starters within 2 seasons.
    2. Non-lottery first round picks that do not make the rotation after 2 seasons.
    3. Second round draft picks that do not make the roster.

    Busts
    1. Lottery picks that do not make the rotation and are not averaging at least 20 quality minutes per game after two seasons.
    2. Non-lottery first round picks that do not make the rotation after 3 seasons.
    3. Any draft pick that does not have any trade value and is not desired by any NBA team after 2 seasons.


    Under my definition of success, I think there is 15-20 players in this draft that will be successful. That does not mean they will become stars or superstars. My original post wasn't about that. It was about combing out guys that I think will achieve some success vs. guys that I would not draft for fear that they will be a bust or be less than successful based on where they are drafted.

    Obviously if McLemore and/or Noel fell to the low first round or the second round, their success would be redefined by what I wrote above. But based on both of those guys being at the top of the draft board and both of them most likely being drafted by pick #5, I suspect they are going to either bust or be less than successful. If I were running an NBA team I would either draft someone else, or trade my pick for the most value or draft them and trade them for the most value as soon as possible.
     
  8. hoopcity

    hoopcity Member

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    I know Gonzaga hasn't produced a whole lot of great NBA players, but Olynyk is an intriguing talent. He's very skilled for a big man, he was a point guard in high school before he grew to be 7 feet, he can shoot from anywhere on the floor, and is a quality 3 point shooter.

    He could really turn into a version of Pau Gasol, he is insanely efficient too, during the regular season had 65% field goal percentage, and for a time had the highest PER of any player in college basketball.
     
  9. basketballholic

    basketballholic Contributing Member
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    Intrigued by him. But can't quite peg him either way. I understand what you are saying about him though. One hesitation I have about Gonzaga guys, especially bigs, is in the past they tend to look better in college than in the pros. I wonder if that is Few's system. I thought Turiaf was going to be a lot better than he turned out to be. He looked very multi-dimensional at Gonzaga and they won a lot. Same thing with Sacre. I thought Sacre had perhaps the most developed/refined post game of all the bigs last year. Couldn't even get on the floor. Austin Daye, not necessarily a big but a long kid that looked a lot better at Gonzaga than he has since leaving.

    I really, really like Olynyk's jumper. His jumper is so good that when he catches the ball high, he forces the defender to come out and faceguard him. And then he's such a good ballhandler that he can then get his shoulder by the defender and get to the rim with relative ease. That's all created because he shoots almost 60% from 15-17 feet. That is a highly efficient shot. So, I like that.

    In addition he's got very good footwork, both on the face-up and the post-up. He's very slithery, knows how to operate in traffic. So, he's got some skills.

    What causes me to hesitate on him are these things:

    1. He is a terrible, terrible rebounder. For a big that's a problem. That means for him to be successful in the NBA he's really got to be outstanding on the offensive end. He's a terrible rebounder at the NCAA level. I'm not talking about just average or bad. He's terrible. He boxes out nobody, he's a magnet for opponent offensive fouls. It's only going to get worse at the NBA level. A big can be an average rebounder and still have a successful career. A big can even be a subpar rebounder and still have a successful career if their other skills are above average. But poor to terrible??? He's absolutely poor to terrible at rebounding the basketball.

    2. He's a poor defender. Can't stop anything.

    3. He's very thin and he's not long for a 7-footer. The NBA is a man's league. I don't see him playing in the paint consistently there. I can see the possibility of him translating to the 4 spot....but then the question becomes how much shooting range does he realistically have?



    So, I don't know. To me, he's an enigma, a total roll of the dice. He could mature and improve defensively and on the boards and then perhaps his jump shot and offensive game translates and he winds up a star. Or he could remain very, very bad on the defensive end and wind up a bench player and out of the league.

    I can't get a solid read on him beyond these things. Intrigued with his offensive potential. Very, very concerned with how bad he is defensively and on the glass.
     
  10. basketballholic

    basketballholic Contributing Member
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    Pardon me. "offensive fouls" under 1. above should have been offensive rebounds.
     
  11. hoopcity

    hoopcity Member

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    Olynyk is an enigma, but worth rolling the dice in this draft.

    Skilled big men are a rare commodity. Olynyk's offensive game is very good, you're certainly right about his weaknesses. But rebounding can be worked on, and he can put on weight and become a tougher, in the paint player. Remember, prior to this last year, Olynyk sat out for a year to work on his game. In 2010-11 he averaged 5.8 points. He spent an entire year becoming the player he was last season, the guy certainly knows how to put in the work to improve.

    A big man though who can handle the ball, with a great shot with range, and a good work ethic is definitely intriguing.

    I bet he goes to Philly at 11 though.
     
  12. basketballholic

    basketballholic Contributing Member
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    Trey Burke finally is hitting his stride and breaking out. Will be a great bargain next season on that minimum salary if he stays healthy. And then he should cash in the summer of 2019.
     
  13. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    umm no. hell never be the starting pg of a winning team. he scores 42 pts on a team missing their pg with no real options behind against a bad team and most importantly, they still lost.

    quit trying to toot your own horn. its laughable how much youre trying to reach bc of how often you are wrong
     
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  14. basketballholic

    basketballholic Contributing Member
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    Ha. You're following me around like a little puppy dog. Hilarious. Trey Burke has broken out. I can see it. Just like I could see that Hasan Whiteside was ready to be a solid NBA contributor and I wanted the Rockets to sign him to a minimum deal after the Vipers traded for him. Just like I called for trying to acquire Spencer Dinwiddie when I could see he was ready.

    This isn't a one-time thing for Burke. He's put it together. I can see it coming. If he stays healthy next season he'll be a bargain rotation player at the minimum.

    Now go peddle your papers.
     
  15. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    when your spamming the board trying to make yourself feel better, someone eventually needs to let you know that you're still wrong. another one of the #yulec hot takes. lost track of the #'s. all added material to repost not so long down the road as usual
     
  16. Buck Turgidson

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    You, of all people, should not be allowed to talk sh!t, jopat.
     
  17. basketballholic

    basketballholic Contributing Member
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    $
     
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