Morning of 2/19: The Rockets are over or under the luxury tax?

I think under for this season, but hoping will be over next season. :grin:

 

I think the Rockets will end up keeping T-mac's contract. Unless 76ers give up Young AND Speights in any deal.

So under is my gut feeling

 

Morey would've pulled the trigger already had the 76ers willingly given Iguodala + some others but they are not. Dalembert is not coming unless they give a young assett as well and take on indeed a Brian Cook and one of our young assetts.

 

If Yao was known to be playing again a month or two before the playoffs, I'd say yes. Since he isn't, I can't imagine Les wanting to shell out for the LT when he knows the odds are heavily against us advancing past the first round.

 

Agreed totally with this line of thinking. It's just damn near impossible to come up with feasible and realistic trades that make sense for both sides -AND- satisfy these requirements of netting us a noteworthy asset all the while adding on as little long-term salary as possible.

Thus far, the best I am able to come up with for a deal along these lines is the trade I suggested here with Washington: http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=5066879&postcount=1149

This, along with the Orlando suggestion (something along the lines of Andersen/Hayes/Cook for Gortat/Hayes) , saves us $2M for luxury tax purposes. I know that's not the required $3M or so it takes to avoid it altogether, but it's an extremely difficult task trying to come up with something that completely satisfies every single requirement that we have.

 

I think Cook + our 1st round will be to Memphis. Or we trade Cook + 1st round a team like the Clippers or Nets for a TE. The reason that hasn't happened yet is because of the salary uncertainty of any pending Tracy trade.

 

Totally agree with this line of thinking. I think the only way Les is willing to go over is if the team feels we have a shot at a deep run in the playoffs. I'm starting to think the team may not take on big money such as Iggy unless Philly wows Morey with young talent, or someone else trades the Rox a superstar. Could be wrong but I'm thinking there may be alot of disappointed people around here. So under

 

No doubt it's gonna be UNDER when we deal our diva away or buy him out.

Do not expect any big moves to come but if it happens, that'll be very surprising.

 

Blazers call Wiz and ask for Hayward. Wiz say, 'Sure. Gimme Fernandez and Batum.' End of conversation. That is the report, in so many words. What it means is that GMs are not exactly in 'get it down' mode this 'far out' of the Deadline. The posturing will end in two weeks. The deals will happen in 2 1/2.

 

At this point Cook's pro-rated salary owed is around $1.5M. Package him with $2.5M cash and another team can make a healthy profit.

 

That is going to depend on who we trade for. If we trade for Iggy/Dally, then I would suspect Cook is dumped and perhaps Dorsey dumped to get under the luxury tax. If, perchance, Morey can turn McGrady, Cook, and change into TWO legit stars, such as Iggy/Amare, Iggy/Bosh, Kevin Martin/Amare, Kevin Martin/Bosh, Caron Butler/Amare, Caron Butler/Bosh then I suspect Morey and Les will be willing to pay the lux tax this season.

So, basically, if we get one star for McGrady, Morey will figure out how to not pay the tax. If we get TWO stars back in a trade, Morey will likely pay the tax.

 

If the Rockets have to take on even money for McGrady or can't move him at all then I would think the obvious targets for moving prior to the deadline for getting under the cap would be Battier and or Chuck.

My feeling is that both players are well respected around the league for their defense, locker room presence and neither has a contract that goes beyond next season.

Battier is still a terrific influence on guys like Chase Budinger but I think from watching him this season that his defense is slipping as well as what limited offense he gives us. I see him a little slow on his rotations at times plus he just looks old and tired to me. I think the Rockets hope that Trevor can be to the Rockets defense what Battier has been the last several years. If we landed Iggy in a trade for McGrady I could definitely see Morey shopping Battier in a side deal.

Chuck Hayes still plays exceptional man defense which any team needing some interior defense and making a run at the play-offs would love to have (Dallas, Portland). At just over 2 million he is fairly cheap and the team would have an option for him again next season. Like Battier, if the Rockets end up with Dalembert in a trade, then I think Chuck is gone on a side deal. I think the Rockets were really hoping that Joey Dorsey would grow into Chucks successor. A bigger, stronger, more athletic and better rebounding defender that makes more than a million a year less than Chuck. I'm guessing the Rockets are fairly disappointed in Dorsey at this point but regardless, I don't see both Chuck and Joey on the team next season.

More and more though I think Morey is playing Hardball with Philly at this point hoping that either we offer them the best deal with McGrady's contract with out taking back Dalembert or that something better comes along (A deal with GS, Minny or Tor). But if push comes to shove and nothing better happens I think he would take Dalembert in a trade with Iggy. I partly believe this because I think Iggy is exactly the type of player Morey values because he plays on both ends of the court and attacks the basket like no one else on the team. I also think that the option of Bosh leaving Toronto this the summer may be slipping away with every Toronto win.

 

If they keep T-mac's contract, they will still be over the luxury tax threshold.

It still counts against the cap for the contract year.

 

I get the feeling the Suns and Spurs are the teams to keep an eye on.

 

I voted over, because I do not think a TMac trade will take place. If they do go under it will be with other trades that do not involve TMac.

 

Questions:

Is it reasonable to assume that Tmac might accept a buyout so that he could hook with another team for a couple of moths to get a showcase for an additional contract?

Does a buyout at $4 million under the $23 million count as saving salary so as to get under the LT?

And obviously the Cook + cash to a team under the cap and needing cash is a no brainer, why hasn't this already happened?

(I can see keeping Dorsey around as leverage for negotiations with Hayes)

 

Dubious,

I have been wondering the same thing, but do you think that Tmac would honestly give up $4 million of guaranteed money?

Man, that is a lot, I am sure the Rockets would hope he would do that, especially after the trade deadline.

It would make things really interesting if he were willing to do that, and probably change Morey's approach dramatically.

Good thoughts.

DD

 

so when said only three teams are willing to spend money and the rockets are 1 of them, I guess he was lieing to appease fans? we all see through it. lets face it ,Les wont pay tax this year or next or after that. Yao taking up 20mil+ is going to prevent the chance of having another allstar,so we are stuck with role players +yao until yao retires. Yao will never win a championship this way. Either yao takes massive pay cut to about 10+ mil or play on a team like lakers that pays the lux tax.

When you have a team like Mavs and Lakers with superstars that dont get injured like Dirk and Kobe,and then you have the owners willing to spend lux tax + dirk and kobe, the rockets have no chance of beating those 2 teams without going into tax with something along the lines of yao+iggy+landry+brooks.

The rockets wont do this. Every year we hear rumors of massive trades and they never happen. I fully expect rockets to stay in the 5th-9th seeds every year until yao retires since tmac is done. When yao and tmac were both top 10 players in the league, we still didnt pay tax., what does that tell you? we will never get another top 10 player to go with yao ever again.

 

Ron Artest
Tracy McGrady
Steve Francis
Scottie Pippen
Clyde Drexler
Charles Barkley...

...were big name trades that happened on Les Alexander's watch. On top of that Les spent millions to buy 3 second round picks this past year. He is currently over the luxury tax. Why should I think Morey is lying.

The sad part about your quote is that if Morey does not make a trade because some other team has a better offer of because Morey truly believes that there is not an available trade to make the Rockets better you will fill vindicated in your quote. If Morey does make a trade and it puts the Rockets in Salary Hell for the next three season you will complain that he is an idiot for making the trade.

 

Basically, the two most obvious ways for the Rockets to get below the luxury tax threshold by February 19 are:

(1) A major T-Mac trade that involves the Rockets taking back less 2009-10 salary than it trades out (as Clutch has mentioned); or

(2) Paying another team to take Brian Cook's contract.

As it stands now, the Rockets are about $2.7M over the tax threshold (a conservative estimate). Also note that if Will Conroy (or some other D-League player) is signed for the rest of the season after the trade deadline (either to add them as an asset or simply to comply with the league's mandatory minimum of players), that will add another approximately $300,000 towards the Rockets' total team salary for luxury tax purposes. So, for all intents and purposes, the Rockets need to reduce payroll anywhere from $2.7M to $3M.

Now, the T-Mac Trade variable is so unknown, so it is impossible to discern at this point whether such a trade will actually get the Rockets below the threshold. For instance, a T-Mac trade could get the Rockets very close, and then Morey could then just pay another team to take Dorsey's $881k salary, which would cost the Rockets less than it would cost to get rid of Cook.

So, assuming for a moment that T-Mac is not traded (or is traded for equal salary), I am going to do something fairly uncharacteristic for me . . . I'm calling my shot. (Again, this only applies if T-Mac is not traded.)

On February 18, 2010, the Houston Rockets will trade Brian Cook, cash (about $2-3M) and their 2011 second rounder (the higher of theirs or the Clippers') to the Memphis Grizzlies in exchange for Lester Hudson.

The Grizzlies are about $3.2M below the salary cap right now. That's not far enough to absorb Cook's $3.5M contract. However, if the Griz give up a low salaried player, the trade will work. Hudson makes the rookie minimum salary of about $457k. This trade would get the Rockets far enough under the tax threshold to not only take back Hudson's salary but also add Conroy, if they so chose. Heck, Hudson's actually a pretty decent young player.

The biggest impediment I see to the above trade, however, is Miami. Apparently, the Heat are above the luxury tax threshold as well, by a number that just so happens to be the same amount as Dorrell Wright's salary. Wright is a quality young player, and Memphis has actually shown some interest in him. If Miami is willing to part with a decent player who is helping the team, all to get below the tax, then a Dorrell Wright to Memphis trade is quite likely. Wright makes just enough to fit within the Grizzlies' remaining cap space.

So, if Miami offers Dorrell Wright to Memphis (who, by the way, is making a playoff run of their own this season and could use another good wing player), the Rockets would need to "up the ante" to get them to take Cook instead. Maybe that means offering up the full $3M in cash. Maybe it means offering up the draft rights to an international player like Lior Eliyahu. I don't see Morey or Les being willing to give up the team's 2010 first rounder (especially since it may be as high as #12 overall), but it's possible that a future (highly-protected) first rounder may need to be involved.

But, there it is. I've called my shot. I may be wrong. I may be mostly right, with a very similar Houston-Memphis swap taking place. But I think that trade makes TOO much sense to both teams. That is, if Michael Heisley stays true to his money-saving ways and opts for a financial windfall over a more basketball-related move. Keep in mind, for as good a season as the Grizzlies are having, they are still DEAD LAST in the league in attendance. That can't be helping Heisley's bottom line.