In the offseason, the Rockets have two high-value assets: Kyle Lowry and the ability to have a ton of cap space. They also have many low to moderate value assets, like draft picks, Luis Scola, and so forth. I think Morey's offseason plans will center around two things: Retaining Goran Dragic, and using Lowry and the Rockets' cap space to acquire all-star level players, or players he believes have more than a 50% chance to develop into all-stars. Here are the steps I think Morey will take: 1) Get a handshake agreement with Goran Dragic to sign a four-year deal with the Rockets so long as he is promised the starting PG role. Keep it hush-hush until you... 2) Trade Kyle Lowry and other inexpensive assets for an all-star level player or a young player who is a strong bet to become an all-star level player. Sending him out in a sign-and-trade for a restricted free agent is a possibility. Top targets include Pau Gasol, Roy Hibbert, and James Harden. The ability to take back salary while saving the other team money could play a big role in getting a deal done. 3) Get Luis Scola, Kevin Martin, and Sam Dalembert off the books and get whatever inexpensive assets you can for them. Amnestying Scola may become necessary. Dalembert can be traded or we could just decline his option. This could easily happen before or as part of the Kyle Lowry trade and the assets and cap space gained could aid that deal. 4) Threaten to overpay heavily going after Roy Hibbert, Eric Gordon, and Nic Batum; use it as leverage to extract a favorable sign & trade deal for one of these players. Ideally, we won't have to actually overpay, but if it comes down to it be willing to offer a lot of money for them. Use draft picks and assets like Morris to get a deal done if it's a trade. 5) The end goal is to re-sign Goran Dragic and add big upgrades at two of the 2-5 spots in the lineup. My perfect world (pipe dream) scenario would be to obtain James Harden and Roy Hibbert, both young all-star caliber two way players, but a more realistic scenario would be to obtain Eric Gordon and Pau Gasol. 6) Flesh out the rest of the roster. Bring back Courtney Lee if we didn't trade for or sign a SG; let Lee walk or SnT him elsewhere if we did. Bring Marcus Camby back as backup center on a cheap deal. Bring Donatas Motiejunas over to play some minutes at the 4 and 5 spots. Buy out Sergio Llull's contract, or get a cheap backup PG through trade or free agency (if we have enough cap space). Pipe Dream Roster Dragic/Llull Harden/Budinger Parsons/Morris Motiejunas/Patterson Hibbert/Camby More Realistic Roster Dragic/? Gordon/Budinger Parsons/Morris Motiejunas/Patterson Gasol/Camby
Good ideas, I do believe that Lowry should be traded if he does not return the rest of the season, and Dragic keeps playing the high level. We have to make a choice between two of them cause both of them are very qualify to be a start PG in this league. Besides all these ideas, I think Morey is going to focus on this up coming draft, it is very deep with a lot of high quality players and it is easier to dig a gem anywhere in the first round.(and second round Damn CParsons is good) If we did not make the playoff, I see our young players such as Lowry or Lee or Parsons become the leader of the team and Kmart and Luis Scola will net us some good assets(picks, or young players) if they play well for the rest of the season. They are more important to contender team as 3rd or 4th option. I can see great future for Rockets.
Just a few points. 1. Morey's Plan A is to sign Deron Williams in the offseason to a max contract. 2. Morey is not going to overpay for anyone. He's simply not going to do it. So what that means, is as much as we like Dragic, and as much as Morey likes Dragic, Morey has a value assigned to him that Morey is not going to exceed to sign him. If somebody offers Dragic stupid money, that is more than what Morey values him at, he's not going to pay it, he's not going to beat it, he's not going to match it, he's going to let Goran walk. Now, if Morey feels like Goran is worth a certain amount, he's going to throw him an offer probably 20-25% under that amount and see if he can get Goran to bite. That's just smart negotiation. And Morey will come up to what he feels is Goran's value. If the market exceeds it, Goran will likely be gone. If the market doesn't exceed it, Goran will likely stay. And if the market will only exceed Morey's offer by a little bit, Goran may decide to stay. But that's a big IF when it comes to big money. Same with Courtney Lee although we have more leverage with Lee because he is restricted. Morey is going to see what the market yields on Courtney and then he's going to decide to match or let him walk. 3. OKC is NOT going to trade Harden. It's just not going to happen. Westbrook will be traded before Harden is traded. And Harden will only be traded if he makes it abundantly clear that he wants out of OKC and is willing to sign his restricted offer sheet AFTER the 2013 season so that he can be free to walk in 2014. Now, if Harden does that, he may get OKC to trade him. Otherwise, NO CHANCE. Don't even waste your time dreaming about it. 4. Roy Hibbert is one of the most likely candidates to receive a bloated contract. Morey won't be involved in that. He's only going to offer value contracts. So, if he really values Hibbert a lot, Hibbert is restricted, he's got to offer him a contract that Indy has 3 days to match. They would match any contract Morey is willing to offer. Morey won't even waste his time trying to sign Hibbert to an offer sheet. It's actually better for us if someone else overpays for Hibbert. Same thing goes for Gordon and Batum. They're both restricted. Don't expect Morey to play. (Although I would love to see Morey offer Gordon a max deal just to punk Stern, I don't think he'll do it.) He's not going to overpay. 5. So, if Morey can't get Deron Williams to sign a max deal, then I suspect (and hope) that he does what you are suggesting. That is, trade Lowry and re-sign Goran. Ideally, I'd like to see if Morey could trade Lowry and Martin for an All-Star big. I'm pretty sure a Lowry/Scola deal is still going to be available for Gasol during the offseason. And I'm pretty sure that we could probably get Nene out of Washington for Martin's expiring and Patterson and/or a pick. That would be the front line we were trying to get done this offseason. Omer Asik is a young big that I believe Morey has his eye on and may be available in a trade or outright signing. Plus, no telling what else will break loose between now and then. Heck, Bynum is an expiring. The Lakers may take a notion to trade him for Lowry/Scola/Dally since they already got Gasol locked up and they are playing out the string with Kobe. And the draft. What if we could trade for somebody's lottery pick and wind up with Davis? It's possible (not probably). Morey's #1 priority is to land Deron Williams. Morey's #2 priority if he can't land Deron Williams is to get a premier two-way big man.
I've soured on signing D-Will. I think there's a fair chance Lowry or Dragic could wind up being just as good. And I don't think Morey seriously considers him an option--he's not going to waste time and opportunities pursuing D-Will unless he thinks there is a very good chance of signing him. I wouldn't say no if D-Will said "I want to sign in Houston", but he's not enough of an upgrade to be worth another wild goose chase. You're assuming Morey is content to keep spinning his wheels. I think he's getting to the point where he just wants to make big changes to the roster and is willing to go to great lengths (including overpaying) to do it, and take some chances on young guys with potential developing into players good enough to be worth their contracts. I think he would have done so at the deadline, had Lowry not been out with a bad infection & Martin injured. OKC absolutely CANNOT AFFORD ALL THREE. They cannot keep Durant, Westbrook, and Harden. They are a small market. Maybe you're right that they would trade Westbrook before Harden--in that case I would say go after Westbrook and make him an SG. But I suspect they are more attached to Westbrook than Harden. Regardless, I think it's a long shot to get either guy, but unlike D-Will, both are worth pursuing. Hibbert is a clear upgrade over any center on our roster and still has untapped potential. I can see Morey taking a risk on that. A sign-and-trade to acquire Hibbert at a fairly reasonable cost is more realistic than a huge overpay. Both are guys with a lot of potential. Like I said, I'm betting Morey is ready to take more risks. He needs to do something. He can't afford another season where the Rockets are a borderline playoff team. Bottom line is, jopat: You have unrealistic notions of what Morey can pull off. Players like Hibbert, Gordon, Batum are much more realistic possibilities, especially in SnT deals.
Your realistic possibilities scenario you described at the end of your post is the "spinning wheels" you described at the top of your latest post. The biggest need this team has is a premier two-way big. Hibbert ain't that guy. And there is no spinning wheels with Deron. He's an UFA. That means he's going to get a max contract. As long as he's hanging out there unsigned, Morey is going to be talking to his camp to see if we can get him. Reason being.....he is a premier point guard that will attract a premier big man. While ultimately Goran or Lowry may turn out to be "almost as good", the premier player attractant that Deron would bring to our team would be undeniable. Morey is going to go after him until he is gone.
I think that this team has some quality pieces in place to contend in the future and I like the situation with the picks and drafts rights we have with Motiejunas and Llull(but don't see him coming over until 2013-14) I know we'll have some cap space available but there's not really anybody worth going after, especially overpaying. The Blazers and Pacers have a lot more cap space available. Blazers rebuilding are bringing back Batum that's why they shipped out Wallace and Pacers are a top 5 team in the East so they're bringing back Hibbert. Also with Motiejunas coming over I don't see a need in Gasol's contract and he can't play canter full time and with Gordon's injury issues I don't see the need in an undersized SG at 6'3. I agree with you with Martin and Scola they we should look at ways to trade them on draft night or the off-season and I'd be open to amnestying Scola with a rotation at PF with Motiejunas/Patterson. If we can't trade Martin then have him come off the bench with him being in the last year of his contract anyway. As for Dalembert I think his contract is a hell bargain and is a keeper, would rather have him than Camby back. So what I think Houston should do in the off-season is: -Sign Lee between 5-7mil and let him start -Let Dragic and Camby go to free agency -Trade Martin, #22 to Boston for #17 -Draft #15 M. Leonard, #17 T. Ross -If no takers on Scola amnesty him -Bring over Donatas Motiejunas -Sign a quality back-up PG to a 1yr deal Lowry/? Lee/Ross Parsons/Morris/Budinger Motiejunas/Patterson Dalembert/Leonard -At next years trade deadline look to trade for Harden (Maybe Lee/Budinger/'13 1st for Harden/Hayward)
Asik isn't a two-way player. At all. I do agree with most of your post though. I think we'll dangle any combination of Martin, Scola & Dalembert for lottery picks, try to sign D-Will in the off-season and perhaps entertain trading Lowry for a stud center. Other guys I could see us tring to trade for: Valanciunas, Gortat, Noah.
He has a pretty good chance to become that guy. In today's game, 16, 11, and 2 is a superstar big man. Hibbert is already a 13, 10, and 2, 7'2" guy, and he hasn't reached his potential yet. Waiting on D-Will's decision could hold up other deals. I'm cool with putting an offer on the table with a short deadline, but don't wait around for him when there's maybe a 5% chance he signs here.
I agree. Asik isn't an offensive player. He's more along the lines of Tyson Chandler, except even quicker feet. He's a defensive specialist. If Morey acquire Asik, it will be because the contract is right and he has a plan to pair Asik with another big who is a two-way player....like Gasol. Toronto isn't trading Valanciunas for anything we got. Gortat and Noah are possibilities.
Gortat could be a possibility if Phoenix doesn't sign Nash. I didn't list every player I think is possible for us to go after. But I think the basic idea will be to use Lowry, Martin, Scola, and other assets to upgrade the 2-5 positions even if we don't get a superstar, while re-signing Dragic. I think that is Morey's plan--he won't let Goran walk for nothing.
Do you think 5 percent is worth talking when Dallas has, lets say 59 % possibility, is in Texas and the same Division.
1. 4-year deal? How much? Any options? 2. Gasol? LMA is much better with a friendlier contract. Agree on the others though, but why go after Batum when Parsons is playing so well? Agree on Lowry situation though if that scenario happens. 3. Dalembert's contract isn't at all. 6 mil ish for a center is pretty good, but he can be traded. A good scenario is if we could get Martin and Scola out of here and trade them to the sixers (who could some serious offensive help) who Brand and Nocioni (expirings) plus a 2013 lotto-protected pick. Hell I'd even try throwing Bud +NY pick in there to get Turner minus their pick. 4. Again, why overpay for Batum when we have Parsons for extremely cheap? Hibbert will be overpaid by a team like the Celtics and the Pacers WILL match it. I'm also a bit hesitant on throwing max money to EG because he can't stay healthy at all recently. 5. Harden and Hibbert would be nice. Harden's possibly attainable, but I don't think Hibbert is. The bargaining price on Gasol is about to go down next season because the Lakers can't afford him and Kobe and be able to sign back Bynum to the money he will warrant. EG would be nice if it wasn't a max deal (which won't happen). 6. Agree with the Lee scenario. But I think unless Camby just wants to play close to home, I think he will want to go to Miami so we may lose him. Llull's buyout is higher this year than next, so he will most likely be bought out after next season.
I pray every night that we're done talking about adding Pau Gasol to the team, particularly at the expense of Lowry...but every few days someone else posts about how he's still a target.
I hope Morey doesn't screw around and lose out on other players while Deron Williams signs with Dallas instead. Hope we keep Goran and Lee. I would also say, If Kevin Martin helps in a trade for a player we need, great; if not, amnesty him. He's like the wreckage of the mast during the storm in "Master and Commander". He went from serving a great purpose to nearly dragging us under; in the movie, they cut away the mast and the ropes and saved the ship. (I think it's Martin's psyche more than his shouder.) OKC should keep Harden and trade Westbrook. They cannot afford both. They need a steadier hand at PG. Westbrook should be paired with a taller guard who can also distribute. Spot on. If Lowry is in a deal for an All Star or near-All Star type, yes. Wouldn't be surprised if this was the plan, IF Morey isn't re-thinking the $$$ for Nene and his injuries.
Regarding Batum versus Parsons... he would be my lowest priority of those three RFA guys, but I definitely think he is an upgrade from Chandler. Like Chandler, Batum plays very good defense and does the little things right, but he is already a second option kind of player on offense. Averaging 17 points per 36 minutes and knocking down three-pointers 40% of the time and free throws 83% of the time. They're similar players except Batum doesn't rebound as well but is a MUCH better offensive player. I know Parsons is a rookie but it may surprise you to learn that he is the same age as Batum... 23.
