1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

Morey's Models

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by rw7183, Feb 10, 2019.

  1. BallSoHarden

    BallSoHarden Member

    Joined:
    Mar 26, 2015
    Messages:
    787
    Likes Received:
    859
    I was expecting something along those lines, not someone's take on statistics and modeling who barely passed high school math.
     
    bilaal14 likes this.
  2. Easy

    Easy Very Calm
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2002
    Messages:
    25,906
    Likes Received:
    6,207
    The 1.1 point expectation is for a large number of shots. When you have only one shot and need only one point, you want the most likely made shot It doesn't matter how many points you get from that shot. Chris Paul's 2pt percentage is .488. Harden's 2pt percentage is .526. Both have a higher likelihood of making the shot than Harden's step back 3.
     
    BasketMAD, BamBam and csj like this.
  3. riko

    riko Member

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2014
    Messages:
    4,121
    Likes Received:
    6,107
    Harden actually leads the league in clutch points by a wide margin so let’s not exaggerate. The guy is by far the most clutch player in the league
     
    vlaurelio and saleem like this.
  4. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2010
    Messages:
    19,241
    Likes Received:
    6,671
    He's tied with Victor Oladipo at 5.1 ppg but with a much lower fg%. So it has more to do with volume than accuracy. His 3pt fg% in clutch situations this year(final 4 minutes in close games) is a paltry 29.8% which is significantly lower than any other player in the top ten in volume pts in those situations.

    So yes, relying on the step back chuck a 3 in the closing moments of a game has been an overall failure for this team. He's had some peak moments such as the GSW game but overall he's just been awfully inaccurate in clutch situations this season and honestly I already could tell this from the eye test.

    So many games where he was decently hot for 3 quarters and his fg% plummets in the 4th .

    The Rockets need to learn how to run a legitimate offense in closing moments of games because what they currently are doing ain't working .
     
    BasketMAD and hakeem94 like this.
  5. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2016
    Messages:
    11,818
    Likes Received:
    15,598
    i think they prefer shooting 3 in the clutch and iso instead of a set play because

    1 it negates a possibility of making a turnover and
    2 being fouled and not getting a call
     
  6. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2010
    Messages:
    19,241
    Likes Received:
    6,671
    The team should probably practice set plays if they are that afraid of commiting turnovers from them.
     
  7. vlaurelio

    vlaurelio Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2005
    Messages:
    16,329
    Likes Received:
    5,049
    Yeah they also have 2 superstars with 2 Allstars
    Vs 1 superstar rockets
     
  8. vlaurelio

    vlaurelio Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2005
    Messages:
    16,329
    Likes Received:
    5,049
    Lol the rockets are better off without this bum harden
     
    csj and saleem like this.
  9. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2010
    Messages:
    19,241
    Likes Received:
    6,671
    So just keep on beating up strawmen.
     
  10. saleem

    saleem Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2001
    Messages:
    23,602
    Likes Received:
    5,499
    His agenda is like holic's against Capela. Forget about him.
     
    vlaurelio likes this.
  11. watashi315

    watashi315 Member

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2002
    Messages:
    1,594
    Likes Received:
    192
    And with this age-old issue is where I'm with OGs like Charles Barkley. You can't win in basketball based on some model or statistics. Yes you can preach efficiency in scoring and show me models and percentages. But these are players, not robots. And these players get tired as the game progresses. And in a close game, the opposing team will tighten their perimeter defense if they know you will shoot a three. Fatigue and a combination of stricter defense will ultimately make 3 at the end of a close game, very inefficient. Especially if you start to miss. The more you miss at the end, the more desperate you become and starts losing confidence in your shot. Or as my friend likes to always say, regression to the mean. This happens to Rockets time and time again. How many times have we seen us up by 20+ pts by half and then in the second half, the opposing team adjusts their defense and we start to miss our 3s. Next thing you know, it's a 2-3 pt game with 2 minutes left. We start chugging 3s in hopes of that quick comeback and stop executing set plays and running our offense. Opposing players know this. Opposing coaches know this as well. It's either James Harden time or Eric Gordon time. Imagine a 7 game series in the playoffs. In a close game, this will not work 7 games.
     
  12. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2010
    Messages:
    19,241
    Likes Received:
    6,671
    I'm really tired of posters like you who think Harden is an infallible God.

    It's amazing how resistent posters like you are to actually running a proper offense in clutch situations. Do you you honestly want a shot with a 29% chance of going in in clutch situations? Really? Is a step back 3 heavily contested 3 ft behind the line with tired legs really the best shot we can create in the final 3 minutes of a close game?

    Actually read my posts and understand my premise isntead of percieivng the slightest criticism of Harden as some grabd agenda.
     
  13. saleem

    saleem Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2001
    Messages:
    23,602
    Likes Received:
    5,499
    I do not think of Harden as a superman and certainly not as a God. His defense isn't good on the perimeter, partly because of lack of lateral quickness and either tiredness or not putting an effort. However, generally he is working harder on defense for most of the time that he is on the court. His steals are just great and so is his post defense. He is 6'5'' and he is defending big PF's and even centers effectively. That's because there is no one else to do the job. Any SG or even a SF would run out of gas. Why don't you acknowledge that? James has been carrying the entire team on his shoulders since Day 1, almost every night. KD, Steph, and even Bron haven't done that, because they can't do it. Harden can't go on without much more help from the team.
     
  14. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2010
    Messages:
    19,241
    Likes Received:
    6,671
    You just read over people's post don't you?

    Actually discuss the criticisms I mentioned. Don't go on a tangent irellevent to discussion.

    Do you think taking a shot that has a 30% chance of going in in close game situations in the 4th quarter is the best shot this team should take?
     
    hakeem94 likes this.
  15. riko

    riko Member

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2014
    Messages:
    4,121
    Likes Received:
    6,107
    So what is the best shot? Paul air balled a shot right next to the rim with a minute left. Don’t give me the give the ball to Paul nonsense. If you say Harden should use his floater , step back mid range shot or attack the rim then yes, but the ball should always be in hardens hand in the clutch
     
  16. saleem

    saleem Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2001
    Messages:
    23,602
    Likes Received:
    5,499
    I only post what I believe is correct. I make mistakes too, but I don't rely on other's opinions. In fact, I don't even read most of them. I do believe in variability though and I have posted that before as well. Good teams can defend Harden down the stretch, since they know what is coming. That's on the coach too, and also because hardly anyone else has the legs, strength and confidence to make a game winner or tying shot. The last time someone else took a big shot apart from Harden was Gordon against the Lakers to take us to overtime.
     
  17. vlaurelio

    vlaurelio Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2005
    Messages:
    16,329
    Likes Received:
    5,049
    LOLOLOF

    so if Harden wasn't such a choker the Rockets should have advanced farther all these years right?
     
  18. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2010
    Messages:
    19,241
    Likes Received:
    6,671
    No, if the Rockets ran set plays where the best available shot was not a heavily contested step back three 3ft behind the line with tired, then maybe they would win more games this season.

    And yes, if Harden shot better than 30% from the three point line last playoffs, there is a decent chance the Rockets would have beaten the Warriors.

    This has less to do with Harden and more to do with Dantoni not having an offensive game plain with 5 minutes left in a close game .
     
  19. Easy

    Easy Very Calm
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2002
    Messages:
    25,906
    Likes Received:
    6,207
    Yeah, this kind of discussion often devolves into criticizing or defending Harden. It's not a Harden' problem. It's a team problem. Harden is part of it because he is part of the team. But if it's a team problem, then ultimately it falls on the coach's shoulder.

    I think it is not just the last 5 minutes of a close game. Harden just needs more help. He doesn't shoot as well when he is tired. Here are his percentages by quarter
    1st 3p% .429 eFG% .573
    2nd 3p% .407 eFG% .570
    3rd 3p% .344 eFG% .531
    4th 3pt% .322 eFG% .498

    There's a huge drop off in the second half. It's not about clutchness. It's about being fresh.

    Blown big leads might have been due to the high variance of the 3pt shot. But it might also have something to do with tired legs. Heavily relying on Harden ISO play after play throughout the whole game would inevitably tire him out. Why can't we let the 160 Million Dollar Man do more playmaking now that he is back?
     
  20. BasketMAD

    BasketMAD Member

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2018
    Messages:
    901
    Likes Received:
    680
    You're acting like he won the championship. Yes, Harden for sure has his flaws. If he can eliminate his dumb shot-chucking, he'll be better, and it will improve the Rockets' crunch-time offense.
     
Loading...

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now