"We are just drafting in the 2nd spot & will make move on final lap" We are being projected at 2nd, but we're going to try and overtake 1st place with a move at the very end (offseason)
I love Morey man. Hes very candid and upfront about his desire to take them down. Its awesome. Most GMs would say, "theyre the the favorites and well see where this season takes us" but Moreys like, "We are coming for that ass!"
That article has our Expected Wins at 53.7 vs last year's 55 Win total. How is that? First logical explanation that comes to mind is while Rockets get better with Paul, so do other West teams, making the Conf more difficult than last year. But that doesn't fly, because the Expected Wins for the Top 8 teams in the West is 397.5 versus actual wins of last year at 416. So, those calculations say the Top 8 teams in the West will have a combined 18 less wins than last year. Those Expected Wins just seem to be fundamentally conservative all across the board.
Theses win projections are always clustered more towards the middle and the top teams are underestimated and the bottom teams are overestimated. This is because it doesn't account for injuries and active tanking.
Sure, but that merely says the simulators or formulas are just bad predictors, no? Clustering in the middle is a flaw, that any data analysis should see and fix.
True, I'm just saying that I only really look at the order of the teams in these projections not that actual win/loss because I understand the flaws.
