More Correa Love from Fangraphs

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Joe Joe, Jul 19, 2016.

  1. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Contributing Member

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    Just more love for Correa. Full article is here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/carlos-correa-looks-historically-great/. Excerpts below.

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    Of the 22 players to record at least 800 plate appearances (again, Correa has 820 now) and 6.0 WAR (Correa’s current WAR) before the end of their age-21 season, 77% (17) are in the Hall of Fame.

    Of the 13 retired players with more than 800 plate appearances and a 127 wRC+ (Correa is at 127), 11 are in the Hall of Fame, with the aforementioned Conigliaro as well as Bob Horner (837 PA) not making the cut.


    I was shocked by the Correa forecast myself, and asked Dan to double check that there wasn’t an error in the code or something, given how bullish it is on Correa’s future. But Dan said the system just loves Correa, as the history of guys who can hit like this at 20/21 in the big leagues is almost universally fantastic. The age really is the key thing to keep in mind here; it’s easy to forget how big of a leap guys can make early on, and at 21, there’s still a lot of room for growth.

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    Projections can be off by a lot, but it is weird to see projections basically say a guy is likely to be in the Hall of Fame. There is a good chance he under performs his projections by a lot....but there is also a chance he out performs his projections.
     
  2. rocketpower2

    rocketpower2 Member

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    We really do have an era-adjusted young Alex Rodriguez on our team.
     
  3. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    In his age 20 season he was 2nd in MVP with 1.000+ ops. Carlos hasn't shown that yet.
     
  4. REEKO_HTOWN

    REEKO_HTOWN Contributing Member

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    Yep. People seems to forget the non douche A-Rod.
     
  5. rocketpower2

    rocketpower2 Member

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    No.

    Adjust for steroids era and BABIP and Correa is right there.
     
  6. REEKO_HTOWN

    REEKO_HTOWN Contributing Member

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    So you think A-Rod was doing steroids at 20?
     
  7. zeeshan2

    zeeshan2 Member

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    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/TeamCJCorrea">@TeamCJCorrea</a> has 26 RBI since June 20 (24 games). That's 2nd most in MLB to Pujols (Pujols had 6 RBI yesterday).</p>&mdash; Adam Wexler (@awexlerKPRC) <a href="https://twitter.com/awexlerKPRC/status/755796320867135490">July 20, 2016</a></blockquote>
    <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
     
  8. rocketpower2

    rocketpower2 Member

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    Numbers were up and pitching was down during that era, regardless of if someone was doing steroids or not.
     
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