Mid-range is the best way to close games

If your name is not Chris Paul

 

I'm werd open! No Dwert, get teh rebund!

Spoiler

 

42% to 39% would take quite a large sample size to show effect tho, crunch time is all about SMALL SAMPLE SIZES which is the only reason you aren't bombing threes in the first place. I'd agree more if it were a guy like CP3/Kawhi/Dirk/Horford/Pau/MJ, where their midrange % is substantially higher (>5-7%) than their 3PT%.

 

interesting post. for the last couple of months i've been thinking about this midrange topic, wondering similar things. one thing i feel like is happening is that the league is adjusting all the more to 3pt defense, especially for teams like us. of course more teams are going 3pt heavy but specifically with our team, our motto has been to just force them up anyway, despite how it's going for each given game. But as we've seen the midrange is something that is definitely open for the taking. I still push for us not losing our general push/identity as a layups/free throws/3's team, but i do think it is a very important weapon for us to have when we ARE struggling from 3 and not getting clean looks at the rim. If anything, it's possible it actually opens up our 3s to be a bit more open for those games when teams like the spurs are sticking to our shooters. If they keep running us off the line and we can hit a good enough percentage from midrange, we'll have more room for less contested 3's? I don't know.

I will say that for Chris Paul, the midrange seems like a very valuable and available weapon in the 4th quarter to pair with Harden's tendencies. But I've also been believing for years that Harden's midrange game is a lot more elite than we get the privilege of seeing. All his pullback dribble moves from midrange seem to have an insane shooting percentage ... even against the better defenders in the league.

 

It becomes less efficient when their is less time on the game clock and it's crunch time.

For example, you are down by one with only 15 seconds left. An open mid range shot is far more efficient in context to the game situation than a open 3.

 

Installment 3,986 of the quest to prove that 2 > 3

Keep trying guys. One day you'll get there.

 

Hell no, in that case you take the open 3 every time, being up 1 with any make ending the game with a loss vs being up 2 and running anyone off the three point line is HUGE.

 

A Chris Paul midrange jumper is practically a lay-up. I have yet to see him miss one.

 

Hell no. You take the best available high percentage shot because if you miss you are ****ed.

It doesn't matter as much in the second quarter because if you have a stretch of missing a few threes in a row early in the game, you still can have plenty of time to make a few threes in a row.

 

Lets break it down:
The average 3 point percentage is 36.3%, The average two pointer is much higher, but since we are talking about Mid-range, we have to exclude points at the basket. This lowers the percentage considerably, to around 40%.

So in this scenario, we have 2 perfectly average teams built with perfectly average players. Assume team A is down by one and each team has one possession left. Also assume the paint is clogged so driving to the basket is not an option, but is preferable to either choice.

If team A takes a three pointer:
They have a 36.3% chance of connecting, but if they do then they could only lose if the other team makes a 3 pointer.

36.3% x 36.3% = .1317% chance of losing after making the three.

36.3% - .1317% = .231231% chance of winning the game after taking a 3

Now if you take a mid range shot, it has a 40 percent chance of going in, even then the other team has the chance of winning the game with a two pointer, which are made at a 56.2% rate.

40% x 56.2% = .2248% chance of losing after making a mid range shot
40% - .2240 = .1752% chance of winning the game after taking a mid range shot

.231231% > .1752%

DISCLAIMER: I do not know the precise average mid range % in the NBA, but the formula holds up all the way to a 53% chance of making a mid range shot, so taking the average two pointer is better than the average 3 in these situations, but not the average mid range shot.

quick maths

 

This isn't a live conversation. A well written post, followed by a well explained set of data is far more appreciated here.

36.3% x 36.3% = who cares

That meant absolutely nothing to anyone here. I think it's worth you either trying again or giving up altogether because that was a horrible post.

... and here I thought this was a smart discussion for a while there... newbs...

 

use it early AND late for brief moments and the entire floor will open up for the majority of the game.

 

Stop tripping, that was a master quality shitpost and you know it.

 

Rockets vs bulls,

Same number of shots attempted, Rox got the worst shooting % as well as 3p%.

And Rox win by 9 points, just by the sheer volume of 3p attempted.

 

For all those wondering if the Rockets actually practice midrange shots.... LOL of course they do. They’re in the frickin NBA. Shooting drills start from the inside going out to get a rhythm. They absolutely do shoot mid range in their drills. Now the focus is probably 3 pointers however.

Anyways, I do agree that everything is situational and it depends on the flow of the game. If it’s in crunch time and we are absolutely putrid from 3 and can’t seem to get open then you have to take what the defense gives you. An open shot is an open shot.

You could argue “aww man Harden missed that mid range shot when he had Gordon open at the 3!!” Now let’s play devils advocate and say he passed it to Gordon and Gordon bricks the 3. Then you’ll have people saying “aww man what the hell! He had the mid range open he should have shot it!!!”

There’s literally no way of pleasing everyone.

Now personally, I do believe in the Morey and D’Antoni offense. Now with that said, there’s always varying factors in a game. If we’re playing the Spurs and they’re closing out on us heavy at the 3 and blocking the paint, then you absolutely have to take the open mid range if it’s there.

One thing I’m seeing that is becoming more and more clear: CP3 needs to become the primary ball handler late in games and crunch time when Harden comes back. CP3 is just a true orchestrator and will always get the highest open shot whether it’s for him or an open teammate. Harden is amazing, but he always reverts to hero iso ball.

Imagine Harden playing off CP3, making cuts and getting open at the 3. Many more lanes will open up for everyone else.

 

doesn't work in tight games because you start running out of opportunities the closer you get to the end which is why your last shot should be your best shot. i.e., if the game is tied with 2 minutes to go i highly doubt the team with a worse shooting % from that point to the end of the game will win.

 

Haha, yes it was. lol.

I still want to know what you were trying to say, but me thinks you might not know either. lol

 

no you keep trying to prove shooting tired is more efficient than shooting rested

 

hmmmm... now that's interesting

 

then youre not watching many rockets games