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Measuring Playmaking Ability of our Players

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by durvasa, Dec 6, 2012.

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  1. Allegro

    Allegro Member

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    Except that Lin proved last season that his production goes way up when his usage nears Harden's level (28.1 for Lin last season; 28.2 for Harden this season).
     
    #61 Allegro, Dec 6, 2012
  2. Morlock O

    Morlock O Member

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    why do you fight so hard? you will not convince them anyway... lin just needs to prove himself on the court...
     
    #62 Morlock O, Dec 6, 2012
  3. TTNN

    TTNN Member

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    if you look at the definition of USG% you will noticed that the production is directly related to USG%, and USG% do not even include AST, thus unless Lin shoot more than 8-9 shots per game, or get whistle from refs, or get more turn overs, he will not get higher USG%, it has nothing to do whether he will play PG or SG though.

     
    #63 TTNN, Dec 7, 2012
  4. torocan

    torocan Member

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    You really can't use usage rate for a correct estimation of possessions or efficiency, aside from assists.

    Wages of Wins actually has an excellent article on the problems with Usage rate.

    http://wagesofwins.com/2012/11/02/just-shoot-more-how-to-fool-advanced-stats/

    Here's a couple tidbits...

    Usage rate is heavily distorted when you have a person that shoots a lot, or who makes poor shooting decisions.

    That isn't to say Harden is a poor shooter, or makes poor decisions (he does sometimes), however we should be careful about using Usage rate to determine actual possession usage.

    It's why I prefer to take the RAW numbers from either 82 games (adding up actual possession types) or from Synergy (ACTUAL possession types in game).

    It's also why you just can't scale up Usage rate for Lin to make comparisons. Increasing Lin's usage rate won't necessarily result in more assists, Lin could jack those up by just taking lots of terrible shots. And it would have the perverse effect of LOWERING his TOV%.

    It's why I much prefer to look at more granular statistics like ACTUAL passes leading to Assists, and why I think it takes more sense to normalize those numbers around the actual In-game TS% than to try to use a flawed statistic like Usage rate.

    Just some thoughts.
     
    #64 torocan, Dec 7, 2012
  5. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    As I've remarked before, efficiency depends on usage. Your argument is assuming FG% and TOV% won't change with increased usage.

    To illustrate the point, Chuck Hayes this season has a very low usage rate -- 9.6. He also has a 3:1 assist to turnover ratio. If we "normalize" his stats to Harden's usage rate, he ends up averaging 9.4 points, 11.2 assists, and 3.5 turnovers. Should anyone believe that such stats are really reflective of his actual abilities? In actuality, if he extended his usage to 28.2 rate that Harden is playing with, he'd be completely out of his element. He'd turnover the ball like crazy, and his already poor FG% would drop to truly embarrassing levels.

    I understand that you have faith that this arithmetic you're applying is valid based on a stretch of games Lin had last year in a different system that favored PGs, with a healthy knee, and against opponents that hadn't fully scouted his weaknesses. But I don't believe credible analysis should rely on such faith. Lin's efficiency would very likely plummet if his usage rate increased to Harden's level.
     
    #65 durvasa, Dec 7, 2012
  6. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    Linsanity also lasted around 20 games, in a PG orientated system and he wasn't missing wide open jumpshots. Teams were also not adjusted to Lin during the early parts of Linsanity.

    The first 11 game, before meeting Miami, Lin averaged 24 points and roughly 8 assist. He had 9 games where he scored over 20+ points. After the Miami game, he averaged roughly 14.6 points and 6 assists in the next 13. The most points he scored was 20, and he only had two of those performances.

    My point is if Lin was any where near Linsanity level, then you have a case. Except Lin is not anywhere near Linsanity level, they are not even the same player right now. Lin's shooting efficiency is deplorable compared to Linsanity, and that is one aspect of a player's game that is supposed to drop with increased usage rate.
     
    #66 flamingdts, Dec 7, 2012
  7. cytrynowa

    cytrynowa Member

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    Not disagreeing with the general gist of your post, but didn't Melo and Amare come back? Then Lin was no longer the first option, but 3rd. He wasn't taking as many shots, as should be when you have Melo and Amare.
     
    #67 cytrynowa, Dec 7, 2012
  8. torocan

    torocan Member

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    I do believe there's some merit to this argument. In game efficiency, like anything, has a curve of diminishing returns for ANY player, whether that's Harden or Lin.

    The REAL question in my mind is where that curve of tradeoffs is in terms of percentage of possessions actually being initiated by Harden OR Lin OR Parsons for that matter.

    The limited crunching I've done tend to point to Lin being under-utilized and Harden being over-utilized during the mid stretch of games. I don't think it's nearly as much of an issue over the last 5 games or so.

    Where that utilization will land in the future is anyone's guess, but I still believe that Lin is a superior facilitator simply due to his Passing/Passing TO ratio combined with his quality of facilitated shots.

    Now, whether that will actually result in superior PPP is harder to pin down, as Lin's propensity to pass will lead to more hockey assists than Harden's preference to generate his own shot.

    Once again, those hockey assist stats are a missing part of the equation... Morey has hinted that Lin's decision making has been excellent, but wasn't so kind as to divulge the hockey pass information (which SportsVu actually tracks ... damn proprietary information!).

    As for formula's that get us a more accurate picture, we're all kind of grasping in the dark here. Nothing like working with incomplete and flawed information in terms of trying to glean nuggets of truth. :p
     
    #68 torocan, Dec 7, 2012
  9. mike_lu

    mike_lu Member

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    To be fair, after Miami he had a rather healthy dose of Carmelo and Amare also, to defer to or create for.

    I think we can mostly agree that Lin is shooting very poorly this season, and fairly passive in trying to create for himself, and this is a balance of him focusing on playmaking, the team being more than capable offensively without him needing to score much, his efforts on defense, lower usage, Harden's capability to playmaker as well as iso (having the ball in Harden's hands), and obviously his poor shooting so far.

    The other things we can't really verify but may exist include coaching/strategy, return from injury etc.
     
    #69 mike_lu, Dec 7, 2012
  10. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    Amare was here during most of Linsanity, so he wasn't really a factor.

    Carmelo came back a few games before the Miami game.

    Lin averaged 15 shots before Miami game (Feb) and 11 shots after (March). However, his shooting percentage dropped from 47% to 40%. So yes, it's fair statement to say Melo mellowed Linsanity when he returned.

    However, Lin broke the 20 points barrier 9 times in 13 games during Feb, but only hit it twice during March in 13 games.

    It's difficult to assess how much Melo affected Lin.

    Still, I would be happy to have the post-Miami Lin. The current Lin is nowhere close to the peak Linsanity, and not even close to the post-Miami Linsanity.
     
    #70 flamingdts, Dec 7, 2012
  11. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    I adjusted my formula by taking into account %Ast (percent of made field goals assisted) and ORB (offensive rebounds) to estimate field goals and free throws earned through a play off the dribble (i.e. not assisted or off an offensive rebound).

    Originally, my formula was:

    PLA = FGA + 0.5*FTA + 1.5*AST + TOV ("plays attempted")
    PLM = FGM + 0.5*FTM + AST ("plays made")
    PLX = PLA - PLM ("plays failed")

    PLM_RTG = (LgPace/TmPace) * (36/MP) * (2*PLM- PLX) ("playmaking rating")
    Score% = (FGM + 0.5*FTM) / (FGA + 0.5*FTA)


    I now modified it to the following:

    PLA = FGA_unassisted + 0.5*FTA_unassisted + 1.8*AST_pure + TOV
    PLM = FGM_unassisted + 0.5*FTM_unassisted + AST_pure
    PLX = PLA - PLM

    PLM_RTG = (LgPace/TmPace) * (36/MP) * (2*PLM - PLX)
    Score% = (FGM_unassisted + 0.5*FTM_unassisted) / (FGA_unassisted + 0.5*FTA_unassisted)

    where:
    FGA_unassisted: estimated FGA via the player's dribble (unassisted, not off an offensive rebound)
    FTA_unassisted: estimated FTA via the player's dribble (unassisted, not off an offensive rebound)
    AST_pure: a "pure" assist (i.e. an assist earned by the passer and not simply a "system" pass or a pass off a hockey assist)

    These are the additional assumptions I made in my model to compute FGA_unassisted, FTA_unassisted, and AST_pure:

    (1) Players will shoot on average 10% higher than their listed FG% on field goals that are asissted
    (2) When a player gets an offensive rebound, he'll immediately take a shot 67% of the time.
    (3) On field goal attempts off an offensive rebound, a player will shoot 67%.
    (4) The percentage of FTA gained through a play off the dribble is the same as for FGA.
    (5) The percentage of assists that are "pure" assists is 67%.
    (6) On average, an assisted shot has a 55% chance of going in (approx. 10% > than average FG%)


    Here are the results for every player in the league who played at least 20 MPG:

    Code:
    [size=1]
     [B]Player Name         Tm     Pos   GP    MPG     PTS/36  AST/36  TO/36   %Ast   Score%   PLM_RTG[/B]
1    Chris Paul          LAC    PG    17    34.1    17.1    9.8     2.4     22.7   51.9%    11.9
2    Rajon Rondo         BOS    PG    14    36.9    12.6    12.5    3.1     30.8   47.6%    10.5
3    Tony Parker         SAS    PG    16    32.5    20.0    7.9     2.2     30.6   47.9%    10.1
4    Kobe Bryant         LAL    SG    17    37.1    26.5    5.0     3.9     30.3   52.5%    9.2
5    Jrue Holiday        PHI    PG    17    38.4    17.3    8.7     3.9     19.7   46.5%    8.5
6    LeBron James        MIA    SF    15    37.3    23.9    6.2     2.4     41.1   49.0%    8.4
7    Russell Westbrook   OKC    PG    18    35.8    20.8    8.7     3.5     21.6   42.9%    8.2
8    Jeff Teague         ATL    PG    14    30.9    15.9    8.3     3.5     22.7   47.0%    7.8
9    Goran Dragic        PHO    PG    18    31.6    17.4    7.5     2.6     33.7   46.4%    7.3
10   Greivis Vasquez     NOR    PG    16    32.8    14.3    9.5     3.8     26.3   42.6%    7.3
11   Nate Robinson       CHI    PG    15    21.0    19.2    6.2     3.0     27.7   46.5%    7.2
12   Darren Collison     DAL    PG    16    32.3    13.8    7.1     2.6     30.6   46.6%    6.8
13   Deron Williams      BKN    PG    16    35.9    15.4    8.9     2.9     35.8   40.6%    6.8
14   Jarrett Jack        GSW    PG    17    25.2    14.3    6.4     2.6     31.8   48.8%    6.7
15   Dwyane Wade         MIA    SG    12    33.7    20.9    5.3     2.4     41.3   46.9%    6.7
16   Mike Conley Jr.     MEM    PG    14    34.1    16.1    7.1     3.2     36     49.5%    6.7
17   Louis Williams      ATL    SG    14    24.4    20.6    4.9     2.1     34.9   45.5%    6.6
18   Kyle Lowry          TOR    PG    12    31.2    19.6    6.4     2.8     32.8   44.6%    6.6
19   James Harden        HOU    SG    16    38.7    22.4    5.0     3.8     29.9   47.8%    6.3
20   Damian Lillard      POR    PG    18    37.7    18.2    6.1     3.2     26.5   44.2%    5.8
21   Raymond Felton      NYK    PG    16    33.3    16.4    7.3     2.6     33.3   39.7%    5.7
22   Andre Miller        DEN    PG    18    25.1    12.2    7.3     3.4     33.3   47.2%    5.3
23   George Hill         IND    PG    17    35.3    15.1    5.4     1.9     34.8   42.7%    5.3
24   Mo Williams         UTH    PG    15    33.1    15.5    7.5     2.9     42.2   41.2%    5.3
25   Kemba Walker        CHA    PG    16    36.4    16.5    5.9     2.4     32     41.0%    5.1
26   Ramon Sessions      CHA    PG    16    28.9    19.4    5.8     2.6     41.8   41.4%    5.1
27   Tyreke Evans        SAC    PG    14    32.4    16.6    4.1     2.4     33.8   45.7%    5.0
28   Stephen Curry       GSW    PG    17    37.0    18.4    6.2     3.1     38.2   42.2%    4.9
29   Jose Calderon       TOR    PG    18    28.4    12.9    9.2     2.6     69.2   32.3%    4.7
30   Kevin Durant        OKC    SF    18    39.1    24.1    3.9     3.1     58.8   50.1%    4.7
31   Luke Ridnour        MIN    PG    15    31.7    13.2    5.0     2.0     35.9   43.6%    4.6
32   Brandon Jennings    MIL    PG    16    36.1    17.0    6.2     2.2     42.9   38.4%    4.3
33   J.R. Smith          NYK    SG    16    33.2    14.7    3.1     1.2     38     41.6%    3.8
34   Carmelo Anthony     NYK    SF    16    35.6    26.9    2.1     3.1     39.5   45.1%    3.7
35   Evan Turner         PHI    SF    17    34.5    14.7    4.2     1.8     47.8   41.4%    3.6
36   Jamaal Tinsley      UTH    PG    16    20.4    4.7     9.8     3.4     56.3   22.8%    3.6
37   Jeremy Pargo        CLE    PG    11    26.4    16.0    5.2     3.2     31.3   40.7%    3.4
38   Jordan Crawford     WAS    SG    14    24.6    19.2    5.0     3.3     32.4   39.9%    3.3
39   Ty Lawson           DEN    PG    18    36.1    13.4    7.2     3.3     39.6   36.4%    3.3
40   Jeremy Lin          HOU    PG    16    34.4    11.4    6.9     3.0     42.4   36.9%    3.2
41   Jason Kidd          NYK    PG    12    26.1    11.0    4.7     0.9     75.9   37.0%    3.2
42   Jamal Crawford      LAC    SG    17    28.9    22.0    2.1     2.3     53.1   44.8%    3.1
43   DeMar DeRozan       TOR    SG    18    37.3    17.8    1.8     1.6     44.4   43.6%    3.1
44   Brandon Knight      DET    PG    19    31.4    15.5    6.0     3.9     46.5   41.3%    3.0
45   Monta Ellis         MIL    PG    16    35.0    19.2    5.2     2.9     49.1   38.2%    3.0
46   Aaron Brooks        SAC    PG    16    22.3    12.3    3.3     1.5     30.6   40.5%    3.0
47   Alexey Shved        MIN    PG    15    24.3    15.4    5.4     2.8     43.1   38.0%    2.9
48   A.J. Price          WAS    PG    14    29.6    10.9    6.3     1.9     34.8   31.9%    2.9
49   Manu Ginobili       SAS    SG    15    24.5    17.1    6.3     3.2     56.9   37.4%    2.8
50   Kirk Hinrich        CHI    SG    14    27.0    8.3     7.4     2.7     41.4   30.6%    2.8
51   Shannon Brown       PHO    PG    18    23.9    18.0    3.2     1.9     39.7   39.5%    2.8
52   Ben Gordon          CHA    SG    14    25.4    21.3    4.2     2.9     53.4   40.6%    2.5
53   Ray Allen           MIA    SG    15    26.8    17.9    2.8     1.6     64.6   44.3%    2.4
54   Mario Chalmers      MIA    PG    15    25.9    9.5     6.0     2.4     60.5   33.2%    2.4
55   J.J. Redick         ORL    SG    16    30.3    16.6    6.1     2.5     79.2   33.2%    2.4
56   O.J. Mayo           DAL    SG    17    34.7    20.9    3.3     2.4     58.8   41.9%    2.3
57   Paul Pierce         BOS    SF    17    33.8    20.4    3.4     2.6     60.8   40.9%    2.2
58   Joe Johnson         BKN    SG    16    37.6    14.9    3.6     1.7     47.9   36.7%    2.2
59   Marc Gasol          MEM    C     15    36.5    15.7    4.3     1.4     70.2   34.8%    2.2
60   Rodney Stuckey      DET    PG    18    28.1    12.3    4.7     1.6     48.3   33.5%    2.2
61   Dion Waiters        CLE    SG    17    32.1    17.0    3.8     2.1     35.5   36.3%    2.1
62   Gary Neal           SAS    PG    16    24.1    16.6    3.0     2.2     50.7   40.5%    2.0
63   Tim Duncan          SAS    PF    17    31.4    21.7    3.0     1.8     66.7   40.3%    2.0
64   LaMarcus Aldridge   POR    PF    17    38.6    19.4    2.6     2.0     50.3   39.8%    2.0
65   Devin Harris        ATL    PG    12    21.8    11.3    4.1     1.9     53.3   36.4%    2.0
66   Vince Carter        DAL    SG    17    23.5    20.0    2.5     1.7     48.7   38.2%    1.8
67   Chuck Hayes         SAC    PF    16    21.3    5.8     3.9     1.3     76     4.2%     1.7
68   Kevin Martin        OKC    SG    18    29.8    19.4    2.1     1.9     68.6   43.5%    1.7
69   Blake Griffin       LAC    PF    17    33.2    18.9    3.4     2.8     59     40.9%    1.7
70   Andre Iguodala      DEN    SG    18    35.2    15.3    3.9     2.8     52.9   39.2%    1.6
71   Boris Diaw          SAS    C     18    24.1    8.6     3.7     1.5     73.2   32.2%    1.4
72   Tayshaun Prince     DET    SF    19    32.5    13.6    2.7     1.2     64.2   35.7%    1.4
73   Jason Terry         BOS    SG    17    28.2    15.0    3.0     1.6     76.8   36.9%    1.3
74   Wesley Matthews     POR    SG    18    37.6    15.4    2.6     1.4     60.4   36.0%    1.3
75   David West          IND    PF    17    34.3    18.6    2.7     1.9     61.8   37.8%    1.2
76   Al Jefferson        UTH    C     19    33.4    18.0    2.1     1.6     52.2   37.4%    1.1
77   Carl Landry         GSW    PF    17    26.6    18.9    1.4     2.5     48.8   47.7%    1.0
78   Lance Stephenson    IND    SG    17    24.9    10.4    3.7     2.1     70     34.3%    0.9
79   Rudy Gay            MEM    SF    15    36.5    18.6    2.3     2.4     46.3   37.8%    0.9
80   E'Twaun Moore       ORL    SG    17    26.5    13.6    4.3     3.1     44.9   35.7%    0.9
81   Danilo Gallinari    DEN    SF    17    33.6    16.6    2.6     1.7     52.8   35.1%    0.8
82   John Salmons        SAC    SG    11    26.1    9.5     2.8     1.4     62.1   32.6%    0.7
83   Glen Davis          ORL    PF    17    32.1    17.8    2.4     1.8     51.8   35.0%    0.6
84   Chandler Parsons    HOU    SF    15    38.2    15.0    3.3     2.0     69.3   33.3%    0.6
85   Roger Mason Jr.     NOR    SG    16    20.8    9.8     2.3     0.9     73.3   29.1%    0.5
86   Martell Webster     WAS    SF    13    21.4    14.5    1.9     2.2     68.8   41.6%    0.5
87   Arron Afflalo       ORL    SF    17    34.6    16.8    2.6     2.3     65.1   36.1%    0.4
88   Harrison Barnes     GSW    SF    17    27.8    12.7    1.8     1.8     56.3   37.7%    0.4
89   Austin Rivers       NOR    SG    15    27.3    8.4     4.0     2.0     40.6   29.7%    0.4
90   Randy Foye          UTH    PG    19    26.0    16.4    2.6     1.6     74.3   31.7%    0.3
91   Jonas Valanciunas   TOR    C     18    23.9    13.6    2.0     2.0     51.5   37.9%    0.2
92   Mike Dunleavy       MIL    SF    15    27.0    14.4    3.2     1.5     78.9   26.2%    0.2
93   Brook Lopez         BKN    C     14    29.8    22.4    0.9     2.1     61.3   39.6%    0.2
94   Daniel Gibson       CLE    SG    15    24.3    12.5    3.2     1.0     85.7   20.3%    0.2
95   Alonzo Gee          CLE    SF    18    33.1    13.2    2.2     2.7     44.7   37.6%    0.1
96   Anderson Varejao    CLE    C     17    36.6    15.0    3.2     1.8     68.6   10.5%    0.1
97   Kendrick Perkins    OKC    C     18    25.2    7.3     2.4     1.4     65     20.9%    0.0
98   Nicolas Batum       POR    SF    18    39.4    16.0    2.9     2.3     62.3   33.3%    0.0
99   Marcus Thornton     SAC    SG    16    28.9    18.9    1.9     1.0     65.9   31.2%    0.0
100  Quincy Pondexter    MEM    SF    15    23.0    9.2     2.3     0.8     71.9   22.7%    0.0
101  M. Kidd-Gilchrist   CHA    SF    16    27.3    14.2    2.1     1.9     56.9   34.4%    0.0
102  Nick Young          PHI    SG    16    23.3    14.9    2.0     1.4     67.9   31.7%   -0.1
103  Kevin Garnett       BOS    PF    17    28.9    19.4    2.3     2.1     78.3   34.4%   -0.1
104  Luis Scola          PHO    PF    18    26.9    16.7    2.2     1.9     57.9   33.8%   -0.1
105  Jason Thompson      SAC    PF    16    30.6    12.8    1.3     1.3     57.4   33.8%   -0.1
106  Thabo Sefolosha     OKC    SG    18    27.7    9.2     2.5     1.4     82.6   19.1%   -0.2
107  Andrei Kirilenko    MIN    SF    13    36.4    12.9    3.3     2.6     68.3   30.3%   -0.2
108  Greg Monroe         DET    C     19    33.3    17.0    3.8     3.6     55.5   34.8%   -0.2
109  Thaddeus Young      PHI    SF    17    35.6    14.7    1.4     1.3     67     32.7%   -0.3
110  Marvin Williams     UTH    PF    16    27.8    13.4    1.5     1.3     75     32.2%   -0.3
111  Michael Beasley     PHO    SF    18    27.7    15.3    3.3     3.5     37.6   35.1%   -0.3
112  Ronnie Brewer       NYK    SF    16    22.8    11.2    2.2     0.5     77.3   12.2%   -0.4
113  Al Horford          ATL    C     13    36.5    15.7    3.4     1.8     77.2   19.0%   -0.4
114  DeMarcus Cousins    SAC    C     14    29.6    19.5    2.5     3.1     37.8   35.0%   -0.5
115  Metta World Peace   LAL    SF    17    35.6    13.4    2.3     1.8     67.6   29.3%   -0.5
116  Jason Richardson    PHI    SG    13    29.1    15.7    1.4     0.8     69.4   27.6%   -0.6
117  David Lee           GSW    PF    17    37.4    16.8    3.6     2.5     73.2   25.2%   -0.6
118  Darius Morris       LAL    PG    15    22.3    9.5     4.0     2.8     53.1   26.4%   -0.6
119  Joakim Noah         CHI    C     15    39.0    12.2    3.9     2.3     64     14.7%   -0.6
120  Jeff Green          BOS    PF    17    21.7    14.8    1.2     2.5     57.1   37.7%   -0.7
121  Gordon Hayward      UTH    SG    19    28.3    17.7    2.5     2.5     71.1   32.4%   -0.7
122  Luol Deng           CHI    SF    15    40.7    16.0    2.4     2.3     68.3   31.3%   -0.7
123  Chris Bosh          MIA    C     15    33.8    20.5    1.4     2.1     75     35.3%   -0.7
124  Jae Crowder         DAL    SF    16    20.2    12.0    2.0     1.4     78     26.2%   -0.7
125  Ekpe Udoh           MIL    PF    16    22.2    9.0     1.5     1.4     55.9   27.0%   -0.7
126  Courtney Lee        BOS    SG    17    24.8    8.5     2.1     2.2     69.8   30.5%   -0.8
127  Kyle Singler        DET    SF    19    27.3    13.5    1.3     1.3     78.9   27.3%   -0.8
128  Paul George         IND    SF    17    34.7    14.0    3.5     2.6     63.5   28.2%   -0.8
129  Jared Dudley        PHO    SG    18    25.8    12.0    2.3     1.4     80.3   19.5%   -0.8
130  Chris Kaman         DAL    C     15    27.1    18.1    1.4     2.7     64.4   37.5%   -0.8
131  Paul Millsap        UTH    PF    19    30.6    16.4    2.9     2.5     62.1   28.9%   -0.8
132  Kosta Koufos        DEN    C     18    21.7    10.5    0.8     1.2     82     6.4%    -0.9
133  Pau Gasol           LAL    PF    17    34.8    13.0    3.6     1.9     72.6   16.5%   -0.9
134  Robin Lopez         NOR    C     16    27.6    15.4    1.4     1.8     65.8   31.9%   -0.9
135  Tyson Chandler      NYK    C     16    29.5    14.9    0.6     1.1     62.5   19.1%   -0.9
136  Josh Smith          ATL    SF    13    35.0    16.5    3.8     3.2     62.6   30.0%   -0.9
137  Kyle Korver         ATL    SG    13    29.3    13.2    2.0     0.9     93.6   10.0%   -0.9
138  DeShawn Stevenson   ATL    SG    11    25.6    8.9     1.5     0.8     87.5   9.3%    -1.0
139  Amir Johnson        TOR    PF    18    20.2    12.7    2.1     1.7     72     10.8%   -1.0
140  Carlos Boozer       CHI    PF    15    29.5    16.7    2.4     2.4     59.1   30.9%   -1.1
141  Marcin Gortat       PHO    C     18    31.2    13.5    1.2     1.9     64.4   32.2%   -1.1
142  Tony Allen          MEM    SG    13    24.5    11.8    0.9     1.5     65.8   29.8%   -1.3
143  Ryan Anderson       NOR    PF    16    32.8    19.2    1.6     1.2     70.5   24.1%   -1.3
144  Andrea Bargnani     TOR    C     17    34.5    18.1    1.4     1.9     67.3   31.0%   -1.3
145  Zaza Pachulia       ATL    PF    14    24.5    10.1    2.3     2.5     61.1   13.6%   -1.4
146  Kris Humphries      BKN    PF    16    24.6    11.9    0.9     0.9     72     12.0%   -1.4
147  Shane Battier       MIA    SF    13    26.6    9.5     1.0     1.0     93.3   2.9%    -1.4
148  Marcus Morris       HOU    PF    16    20.7    15.1    1.3     1.2     63     24.4%   -1.4
149  Steve Novak         NYK    SF    16    23.8    12.3    0.6     0.3     90.9   13.4%   -1.5
150  Shawn Marion        DAL    SF    12    29.0    11.4    3.4     2.8     84.4   7.4%    -1.5
151  Dante Cunningham    MIN    PF    15    22.3    12.6    1.0     0.9     70.4   18.7%   -1.5
152  Elton Brand         DAL    PF    16    22.4    11.1    2.6     1.6     65.9   11.4%   -1.5
153  Larry Sanders       MIL    C     16    23.1    12.6    1.3     2.0     63.6   25.1%   -1.5
154  Markieff Morris     PHO    PF    18    21.6    15.0    2.1     1.6     61.2   23.3%   -1.6
155  Nikola Pekovic      MIN    C     14    29.2    17.0    1.4     2.6     60.3   32.2%   -1.6
156  Dwight Howard       LAL    C     17    36.2    18.6    1.7     3.0     66.1   33.6%   -1.6
157  Patrick Patterson   HOU    PF    15    30.2    17.4    1.2     1.4     75.8   23.3%   -1.6
158  Brandon Bass        BOS    PF    17    27.7    12.4    1.1     1.1     71.2   19.5%   -1.7
159  Jeffery Taylor      CHA    SF    15    24.9    11.9    1.3     1.3     78.3   18.0%   -1.7
160  Lavoy Allen         PHI    PF    17    22.9    9.8     1.8     1.3     62.2   7.8%    -1.8
161  Bismack Biyombo     CHA    PF    14    20.6    7.8     0.3     1.8     73.1   8.9%    -1.8
162  J.J. Hickson        POR    C     17    28.5    13.7    1.2     2.2     49.3   27.6%   -1.8
163  Kenneth Faried      DEN    SF    18    30.6    15.6    0.8     1.7     54.2   24.3%   -1.8
164  Jason Maxiell       DET    PF    19    26.9    11.9    0.9     1.8     71     23.8%   -1.9
165  Brendan Haywood     CHA    C     15    27.7    8.5     0.9     1.8     51.1   17.4%   -1.9
166  Bradley Beal        WAS    SG    14    27.6    14.3    2.2     2.3     67.3   26.7%   -1.9
167  DeAndre Jordan      LAC    C     17    25.9    14.0    0.4     2.1     59.5   32.1%   -1.9
168  Danny Green         SAS    SG    17    30.3    11.6    1.7     1.3     90.3   4.0%    -1.9
169  Ersan Ilyasova      MIL    SF    15    22.9    10.9    2.4     0.9     81     5.0%    -1.9
170  Richard Hamilton    CHI    SG    15    27.0    18.5    3.1     2.9     90.1   21.3%   -2.0
171  Klay Thompson       GSW    SG    17    35.0    15.8    2.3     2.2     72.4   25.4%   -2.0
172  Serge Ibaka         OKC    PF    18    31.2    16.5    0.4     1.9     75.9   28.2%   -2.0
173  Trevor Ariza        WAS    SF    14    25.7    11.7    2.6     2.0     69.8   18.7%   -2.1
174  Nikola Vucevic      ORL    C     17    29.4    12.5    2.0     2.0     70.5   15.4%   -2.1
175  Zach Randolph       MEM    PF    15    36.2    16.2    1.5     2.4     53.7   26.5%   -2.2
176  Matt Barnes         LAC    SF    16    25.4    11.8    1.7     1.8     78     9.1%    -2.2
177  Tyler Zeller        CLE    C     14    22.1    10.8    1.4     2.0     76.3   8.5%    -2.3
178  Emeka Okafor        WAS    C     14    22.0    11.8    1.5     1.4     67.5   9.2%    -2.3
179  Taj Gibson          CHI    PF    15    21.1    11.9    1.6     2.0     80     11.7%   -2.3
180  Al.Farouq Aminu     NOR    SF    16    31.0    11.7    2.3     3.0     73.9   20.6%   -2.3
181  Byron Mullens       CHA    C     16    33.6    13.8    1.3     1.4     68.8   21.1%   -2.4
182  Caron Butler        LAC    SF    16    24.6    14.2    1.5     1.3     90     9.4%    -2.4
183  Corey Brewer        DEN    SF    18    22.9    16.5    1.1     1.7     77.5   23.2%   -2.5
184  Tristan Thompson    CLE    PF    18    30.6    10.5    1.4     1.7     56.9   8.8%    -2.5
185  Dorell Wright       PHI    SF    17    21.9    13.0    1.5     1.8     85     10.7%   -3.0
186  Omer Asik           HOU    C     16    32.8    12.1    1.4     3.3     67.2   12.3%   -3.1
187  Derrick Williams    MIN    PF    12    21.0    16.3    1.3     2.6     65     25.3%   -3.2
188  Gerald Green        IND    SF    17    22.8    12.3    0.8     1.8     72.9   17.7%   -3.2
189  Kevin Seraphin      WAS    PF    13    24.4    16.9    1.7     3.5     62     26.3%   -3.6
190  Derrick Favors      UTH    PF    17    22.8    14.7    0.8     2.4     54.5   15.5%   -3.8
191  Roy Hibbert         IND    C     17    29.1    12.0    1.7     2.4     46.5   15.8%   -4.0
[/size]
    Here are new ratings for the Rockets:

    Code:
    [size=1]
[B]Player Name            Pos    GP    Min    PTS/36 AST/36 TO/36  %Ast   Score%    PLM_RTG[/B]
James Harden           SG     16    619    22.4    5.0   3.8    29.9    47.8%     6.4
Jeremy Lin             PG     16    550    11.4    6.9   3.0    42.4    36.9%     3.3
Chandler Parsons       SF     15    573    15.0    3.3   2.0    69.3    33.3%     0.6
Carlos Delfino         SF     9     207    13.6    3.1   1.7    81.5    19.6%    -1.1
Toney Douglas          PG     15    234    13.1    4.0   3.5    58.3    29.4%    -1.2
Marcus Morris          PF     16    331    15.1    1.3   1.2    63      24.4%    -1.5
Patrick Patterson      PF     15    453    17.4    1.2   1.4    75.8    23.3%    -1.8
Omer Asik              C      16    524    12.1    1.4   3.3    67.2    12.3%    -3.5
[/size]
    And now, top 10 for each position.

    PG:
    Code:
    [size=1]
     Player Name         Tm      Pos   GP    MPG     PTS/36   AST/36    TO/36     %Ast   Score%   PLM_RTG
1    Chris Paul          LAC     PG    17    34.1    17.1     9.8       2.4       22.7   51.9%    11.9
2    Rajon Rondo         BOS     PG    14    36.9    12.6     12.5      3.1       30.8   47.6%    10.5
3    Tony Parker         SAS     PG    16    32.5    20.0     7.9       2.2       30.6   47.9%    10.1
4    Jrue Holiday        PHI     PG    17    38.4    17.3     8.7       3.9       19.7   46.5%    8.5
5    Russell Westbrook   OKC     PG    18    35.8    20.8     8.7       3.5       21.6   42.9%    8.2
6    Jeff Teague         ATL     PG    14    30.9    15.9     8.3       3.5       22.7   47.0%    7.8
7    Goran Dragic        PHO     PG    18    31.6    17.4     7.5       2.6       33.7   46.4%    7.3
8    Greivis Vasquez     NOR     PG    16    32.8    14.3     9.5       3.8       26.3   42.6%    7.3
9    Nate Robinson       CHI     PG    15    21.0    19.2     6.2       3.0       27.7   46.5%    7.2
10   Darren Collison     DAL     PG    16    32.3    13.8     7.1       2.6       30.6   46.6%    6.8
[/size]
    SG:
    Code:
    [size=1]
     [B]Player Name         Tm      Pos   GP    MPG     PTS/36   AST/36    TO/36     %Ast   Score%   PLM_RTG[/B]
1    Kobe Bryant         LAL     SG    17    37.1    26.5     5.0       3.9       30.3   52.5%    9.2
2    Dwyane Wade         MIA     SG    12    33.7    20.9     5.3       2.4       41.3   46.9%    6.7
3    Louis Williams      ATL     SG    14    24.4    20.6     4.9       2.1       34.9   45.5%    6.6
4    James Harden        HOU     SG    16    38.7    22.4     5.0       3.8       29.9   47.8%    6.3
5    J.R. Smith          NYK     SG    16    33.2    14.7     3.1       1.2       38     41.6%    3.8
6    Jordan Crawford     WAS     SG    14    24.6    19.2     5.0       3.3       32.4   39.9%    3.3
7    Jamal Crawford      LAC     SG    17    28.9    22.0     2.1       2.3       53.1   44.8%    3.1
8    DeMar DeRozan       TOR     SG    18    37.3    17.8     1.8       1.6       44.4   43.6%    3.1
9    Manu Ginobili       SAS     SG    15    24.5    17.1     6.3       3.2       56.9   37.4%    2.8
10   Kirk Hinrich        CHI     SG    14    27.0    8.3      7.4       2.7       41.4   30.6%    2.8
[/size]
    SF:
    Code:
    [size=1]
     [B]Player Name         Tm      Pos   GP    MPG     PTS/36   AST/36    TO/36     %Ast   Score%   PLM_RTG[/B]
1    LeBron James        MIA     SF    15    37.3    23.9     6.2       2.4       41.1   49.0%    8.4
2    Kevin Durant        OKC     SF    18    39.1    24.1     3.9       3.1       58.8   50.1%    4.7
3    Carmelo Anthony     NYK     SF    16    35.6    26.9     2.1       3.1       39.5   45.1%    3.7
4    Evan Turner         PHI     SF    17    34.5    14.7     4.2       1.8       47.8   41.4%    3.6
5    Paul Pierce         BOS     SF    17    33.8    20.4     3.4       2.6       60.8   40.9%    2.2
6    Tayshaun Prince     DET     SF    19    32.5    13.6     2.7       1.2       64.2   35.7%    1.4
7    Rudy Gay            MEM     SF    15    36.5    18.6     2.3       2.4       46.3   37.8%    0.9
8    Danilo Gallinari    DEN     SF    17    33.6    16.6     2.6       1.7       52.8   35.1%    0.8
9    Chandler Parsons    HOU     SF    15    38.2    15.0     3.3       2.0       69.3   33.3%    0.6
10   Martell Webster     WAS     SF    13    21.4    14.5     1.9       2.2       68.8   41.6%    0.5
[/size]
    PF:
    Code:
    [size=1]
     [B]Player Name         Tm      Pos   GP    MPG     PTS/36   AST/36    TO/36     %Ast   Score%   PLM_RTG[/B]
1    Tim Duncan          SAS     PF    17    31.4    21.7     3.0       1.8       66.7   40.3%    2.0
2    LaMarcus Aldridge   POR     PF    17    38.6    19.4     2.6       2.0       50.3   39.8%    2.0
3    Chuck Hayes         SAC     PF    16    21.3    5.8      3.9       1.3       76     4.2%     1.7
4    Blake Griffin       LAC     PF    17    33.2    18.9     3.4       2.8       59     40.9%    1.7
5    David West          IND     PF    17    34.3    18.6     2.7       1.9       61.8   37.8%    1.2
6    Carl Landry         GSW     PF    17    26.6    18.9     1.4       2.5       48.8   47.7%    1.0
7    Glen Davis          ORL     PF    17    32.1    17.8     2.4       1.8       51.8   35.0%    0.6
8    Kevin Garnett       BOS     PF    17    28.9    19.4     2.3       2.1       78.3   34.4%   -0.1
9    Luis Scola          PHO     PF    18    26.9    16.7     2.2       1.9       57.9   33.8%   -0.1
10   Jason Thompson      SAC     PF    16    30.6    12.8     1.3       1.3       57.4   33.8%   -0.1
[/size]
    C:
    Code:
    [size=1]
     [B]Player Name         Tm      Pos   GP    MPG     PTS/36   AST/36    TO/36     %Ast   Score%   PLM_RTG[/B]
1    Marc Gasol          MEM     C     15    36.5    15.7     4.3       1.4       70.2   34.8%    2.2
2    Boris Diaw          SAS     C     18    24.1    8.6      3.7       1.5       73.2   32.2%    1.4
3    Al Jefferson        UTH     C     19    33.4    18.0     2.1       1.6       52.2   37.4%    1.1
4    Jonas Valanciunas   TOR     C     18    23.9    13.6     2.0       2.0       51.5   37.9%    0.2
5    Brook Lopez         BKN     C     14    29.8    22.4     0.9       2.1       61.3   39.6%    0.2
6    Anderson Varejao    CLE     C     17    36.6    15.0     3.2       1.8       68.6   10.5%    0.1
7    Kendrick Perkins    OKC     C     18    25.2    7.3      2.4       1.4       65     20.9%    0.0
8    Greg Monroe         DET     C     19    33.3    17.0     3.8       3.6       55.5   34.8%   -0.2
9    Al Horford          ATL     C     13    36.5    15.7     3.4       1.8       77.2   19.0%   -0.4
10   DeMarcus Cousins    SAC     C     14    29.6    19.5     2.5       3.1       37.8   35.0%   -0.5
[/size]
    I think the results here are much improved and more in line with my intuition of playmaking prowess. PGs are of course heavily favored by this stat, and I've effectively reduced the rating for bigs by incorporating Ast% and ORB. In case some are wondering, I did not massage the formula to favor Harden over Lin. Passers are heavily benefited by this stat. Very inefficient players are penalized the more possessions they appear to use, however.
     
    #71 durvasa, Dec 7, 2012
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2012
  12. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    I've adjusted the formula so that it would instead require 1 unassisted shot to cancel two turnovers (or cancel 2 unassisted shot attempts, for that matter). I think this will address your concerns. Turnovers now entail a bigger penalty for the playmaking rating.
     
    #72 durvasa, Dec 7, 2012
  13. visible

    visible Member

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    You should work for Morey.
     
    #73 visible, Dec 7, 2012
  14. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    I'm making this up on the spot so bare with me, but here's one way to maybe estimate "hockey assists":

    HOCKEY_AST = (AST/TmAst) * (TmAst - AST - %Ast*FGM) / 3

    where TmAst = team assists with the player on the floor.

    So, TmAst - AST - %Ast*FGM gives you the number of assists by teammates that didn't lead to a teammate's made shot. I assumed that 1/3 of those assists are "hockey assisted". And then I assume the percentage of those assists which the player hockey assisted is given by AST/TmAst.

    The (AST/TmAST) factor probably needs to be thought out more carefully. This assumes a player's likelihood of being the hockey assistant is proportional to his likelihood of being the assistant.
     
    #74 durvasa, Dec 7, 2012
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2012
  15. gtmkcp

    gtmkcp Member

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    Wow all these stats and revised stats and so on...anyways we have two good playmakers. I think they are different in the way they make plays, but both are good. Some might like the way Lin does it and some like the way Harden does it. But this is a good thing and perhaps it would be nice to look at these stats at the end of the season, but I don't think it's necessary to keep saying one is better than the other because stats also can be manipulated and people have their biases and also preferences.
     
    #75 gtmkcp, Dec 7, 2012
  16. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    Thanks. this looks much better.

    The problem with talking about playmaking is that a lot of times, we ignore the "playmaking for himself" factor. We generally assume that playmaking means making plays for one's teammates.

    That's why players like Kobe is seldom thought of as a good playmaker. But he is a fantastic playmaker for himself.
     
    #76 Easy, Dec 7, 2012
  17. SC1211

    SC1211 Contributing Member
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    Revised formula is great. Really good work.
     
    #77 SC1211, Dec 7, 2012
  18. Allegro

    Allegro Member

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    You deliberately choose a player who has never demonstrated an ability to handle high usage -- and conclude that he won't be able to handle high usage. Well, of course.

    Whereas Lin showed last year that he could.


    Lin is actually not that far off from playing at Linsanity levels, so not much faith is needed. He has been shooting .386; to reach the excellent level of .483, he only needed to change one miss a game to a make. That's not much. So it's quite likely that Lin will eventually be at least a decent shooter -- definitely better than Harden's .369 for the last 15 games.
     
    #78 Allegro, Dec 7, 2012
  19. SC1211

    SC1211 Contributing Member
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    Sigh...

    Great logic there...Lin only needs to change one miss a game to a make, but Harden is slumping in a sample size of 15 games (and clearly doesn't get the same leniency of making one miss a game to a make).
     
    #79 SC1211, Dec 7, 2012
  20. Allegro

    Allegro Member

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    Durvasa, my major criticism of your formulas (both the first and second set) is that you fail to account for how much the ball is in a player's hands. This factor hugely influences the player's points and assists, and therefore has an enormous impact on your playmaker rating.

    So you are not attempting to measure "playmaking ability"; you are only trying to measure "playmaking ability given that everyone has the same share of ball possession". For the top 5 guards the implied condition may actually be nearly true, which is why you think your formulas pass the smell test.

    When comparing Lin and Harden, however, the condition is blatantly false, as Harden clearly has the ball far more in the half court. So until you normalize to ball possession rate, I'm afraid that for Lin and Harden your numbers are meaningless.
     
    #80 Allegro, Dec 7, 2012
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