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Measuring Playmaking Ability of our Players

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by durvasa, Dec 6, 2012.

  1. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Recently there's been some debate over who's the best "playmaker" on the team. Most of us, and I'm guessing the team's coaching staff as well, probably thinks this is James Harden. After all, we've been entrusting him with the ball in key possessions all season. Some have argued that Jeremy Lin is actually our best playmaker, and that this is evident from the stats if you know how to look at it, but he hasn't been allowed to showcase those abilities enough.

    Some stats that have been referenced for guaging playmaking ability include points scored, assists, assists/turnover ratio, % of assits that were bad passes, etc. But how do we put all this information together and come up with a useful metric for playmaking ability? What does it even mean to be a good playmaker?

    First, I'll start with a definition: a playmaker is a player you entrust with the ball in order to generate a quality shot for the team. While its true one can help "make a play" by making a great basket cut, grabbing an offensive rebound, or setting a solid screen, I'll limit my view of playmaking ability to when the team gives a player the ball and the play is initiated from there.

    Here's a proposal for a formula that is (relatively) simple to calculate from the basic box score stats to assess a player's "playmaking" ability.

    PLA = FGA + 0.5*FTA + 1.5*AST + TOV ("plays attempted")
    PLM = FGM + 0.5*FTM + AST ("plays made")
    PLX = PLA - PLM ("plays failed")

    PLM_RTG = (LgPace/TmPace) * (36/MP) * (2*PLM- PLX) ("playmaking rating")

    Also, to assess general scoring efficiency for playmaking purposes (again, not distinguishing 3-pointers from 2-pointers), I include a metric below I'm calling Score%.

    Score% = (FGM + 0.5FTM) / (FGA + 0.5*FTA)

    One note is that I'm not giving extra credit here for made 3-pointers over 2-pointers. For playmaking ability, I'm more interested in the ability to make a positive play relative to a miscue of some sort (not hitting the shot, a turnover, or not creating a good shot with the pass).

    Like any composite rating, this isn't perfect and for some players the results may look a bit weird. In particular, there's no good way to simply get at whether the player is "making" the play or merely finishing the play in the boxscore. I could incorporate percentage of made field goals that were assisted as a refinement (HoopData.com provides this, I believe). I thought I'd keep it a little simpler for now so that it can be computed easily from the stats available from the more visible website (e.g. basketball-reference.com). Even with its limitations, I think for the most part it passes the "smell test". It tends to favor point guards and efficient high scorers.

    Here are the results for all players this year that have played at least 200 minutes:

    Code:
    [SIZE="1"]    [B]Player              Age    Tm     G    MPG    PTS/36  AST/36  TOV/36  Score%   PLM_RTG[/B] 
    1   Chris Paul          27     LAC    18   33.9   17.1    10.1    2.5     54.7%    22.0
    2   Rajon Rondo         26     BOS    15   37.1   12.8    12.4    3.2     52.3%    22.0
    3   LeBron James        28     MIA    16   37.6   23.7    6.5     2.4     54.6%    20.2
    4   Tony Parker         30     SAS    17   32.7   20.1    8.0     2.5     52.2%    20.0
    5   Kobe Bryant         34     LAL    19   36.8   27.4    4.8     3.7     55.8%    18.5
    6   Kevin Durant        24     OKC    19   39.2   24.3    4.0     3.0     59.5%    18.1
    7   Russell Westbrook   24     OKC    19   35.7   21.1    8.8     3.6     46.9%    18.0
    8   Jrue Holiday        22     PHI    18   38.1   17.2    8.8     3.8     48.9%    17.3
    9   Deron Williams      28     BRK    17   36.2   16.3    8.7     2.9     46.0%    17.0
    10  Dwyane Wade         31     MIA    13   33.8   21.2    5.1     2.3     52.9%    16.8
    11  Kyle Lowry          26     TOR    13   32.1   20.5    6.7     2.8     50.4%    16.7
    12  Goran Dragic        26     PHO    19   32.2   17.3    7.4     2.6     51.4%    16.4
    13  Greivis Vasquez     26     NOH    17   33.0   14.4    9.5     3.8     45.1%    16.3
    14  Tim Duncan          36     SAS    18   31.0   21.9    3.0     1.8     56.8%    15.9
    15  Kyrie Irving        20     CLE    10   35.2   23.4    5.7     4.2     51.3%    15.8
    16  Jose Calderon       31     TOR    19   27.7   12.8    9.2     2.6     46.4%    15.6
    17  Jeff Teague         24     ATL    15   30.9   15.6    8.0     3.4     47.9%    15.0
    18  Marc Gasol          28     MEM    16   36.6   15.5    4.3     1.5     57.5%    14.9
    19  Brian Roberts       27     NOH    17   15.4   17.5    5.7     2.2     49.4%    14.8
    20  Mike Conley         25     MEM    15   34.5   15.6    6.6     3.1     53.1%    14.7
    21  Nate Robinson       28     CHI    17   20.6   19.8    5.9     3.3     49.4%    14.6
    22  Mo Williams         30     UTA    16   33.0   15.2    7.5     2.9     47.3%    14.5
    23  Andre Miller        36     DEN    19   24.6   12.3    7.6     3.5     52.9%    14.4
    24  Chris Bosh          28     MIA    16   33.9   20.5    1.6     2.0     61.8%    14.3
    25  Eric Bledsoe        23     LAC    18   18.6   19.1    5.3     3.6     52.0%    14.2
    26  Jose Barea          28     MIN    12   21.8   14.7    7.8     3.3     46.2%    14.2
    27  Raymond Felton      28     NYK    17   33.4   16.4    7.4     2.4     43.8%    14.2
    28  Louis Williams      26     ATL    15   24.6   20.6    5.1     2.1     48.8%    14.1
    29  Beno Udrih          30     MIL    13   18.8   15.9    6.3     2.8     50.0%    14.0
    30  Darren Collison     25     DAL    17   31.5   13.9    7.0     2.9     50.1%    14.0
    31  Ramon Sessions      26     CHA    17   28.1   19.4    5.7     2.7     46.8%    14.0
    32  Jarrett Jack        29     GSW    18   25.1   14.2    6.4     2.6     51.2%    13.7
    33  Kemba Walker        22     CHA    17   36.3   17.0    6.2     2.3     46.4%    13.7
    34  Damian Lillard      22     POR    19   37.9   18.3    6.0     3.0     48.6%    13.7
    35  Stephen Curry       24     GSW    18   37.1   18.6    6.4     3.0     47.4%    13.7
    36  Kevin Garnett       36     BOS    18   28.7   19.7    2.5     2.2     56.4%    13.6
    37  J.J. Redick         28     ORL    17   30.6   16.4    6.0     2.6     50.0%    13.5
    38  James Harden        23     HOU    17   38.8   21.9    5.0     3.8     49.9%    13.3
    39  Blake Griffin       23     LAC    18   32.9   19.2    3.5     2.8     53.5%    13.3
    40  Brandan Wright      25     DAL    13   16.9   17.0    1.6     1.5     65.0%    13.1
    41  Brook Lopez         24     BRK    14   29.7   22.4    1.0     2.1     54.6%    13.0
    42  Carmelo Anthony     28     NYK    17   35.6   26.6    2.1     3.0     51.1%    13.0
    43  David West          32     IND    19   34.2   18.2    2.8     1.9     52.4%    12.4
    44  Tyson Chandler      30     NYK    17   29.9   15.1    0.7     1.2     73.2%    12.4
    45  Al Horford          26     ATL    14   37.0   16.1    3.4     1.9     54.1%    12.4
    46  Tiago Splitter      28     SAS    19   19.0   16.9    2.1     2.3     62.1%    12.4
    47  Monta Ellis         27     MIL    17   35.2   19.2    5.5     2.7     44.7%    12.4
    48  Jordan Crawford     24     WAS    15   24.9   19.8    5.2     3.2     46.0%    12.3
    49  Ty Lawson           25     DEN    19   36.2   14.3    7.1     3.3     44.5%    12.2
    50  Brandon Jennings    23     MIL    17   36.2   16.7    6.1     2.2     44.0%    12.1
    51  Jerryd Bayless      24     MEM    16   17.1   14.2    6.3     2.9     46.4%    12.1
    52  Jameer Nelson       30     ORL    11   33.9   14.2    6.9     2.7     43.5%    12.1
    53  David Lee           29     GSW    18   37.5   16.9    3.6     2.6     52.8%    12.0
    54  Manu Ginobili       35     SAS    16   24.6   17.0    6.4     3.2     45.0%    12.0
    55  Tyreke Evans        23     SAC    15   32.5   17.1    4.0     2.4     50.1%    12.0
    56  Carl Landry         29     GSW    18   26.6   18.5    1.4     2.5     60.5%    11.8
    57  Luke Ridnour        31     MIN    17   30.8   13.4    5.2     2.1     49.2%    11.7
    58  JaVale McGee        25     DEN    19   19.3   20.2    1.0     2.2     56.9%    11.7
    59  O.J. Mayo           25     DAL    18   34.6   20.5    3.5     2.5     51.3%    11.7
    60  George Hill         26     IND    19   35.3   14.9    5.3     1.9     45.8%    11.7
    61  Jamal Crawford      32     LAC    18   29.1   22.0    2.3     2.3     52.2%    11.6
    62  Andray Blatche      26     BRK    17   19.3   19.8    2.1     2.3     51.0%    11.6
    63  Jamaal Tinsley      34     UTA    16   20.4   4.7     9.8     3.4     34.3%    11.6
    64  Al Jefferson        28     UTA    20   33.4   18.8    2.1     1.6     51.3%    11.5
    65  Paul Pierce         35     BOS    18   33.2   20.7    3.4     2.8     49.4%    11.5
    66  Jason Kidd          39     NYK    13   26.0   11.0    4.5     0.9     58.1%    11.4
    67  Ben Gordon          29     CHA    15   25.3   21.5    4.1     3.1     48.7%    11.4
    68  Anderson Varejao    30     CLE    18   36.6   14.7    3.2     1.9     53.9%    11.4
    69  LaMarcus Aldridge   27     POR    18   38.5   19.3    2.4     2.0     49.4%    11.2
    70  Andrew Nicholson    23     ORL    17   12.8   18.8    1.0     2.1     57.6%    11.2
    71  Richard Hamilton    34     CHI    15   27.1   18.4    3.1     2.9     50.6%    11.0
    72  Evan Turner         24     PHI    18   34.7   14.9    4.1     1.9     48.2%    11.0
    73  Ray Allen           37     MIA    16   27.3   17.4    2.6     1.7     55.1%    10.9
    74  Will Bynum          30     DET    16   14.6   13.7    6.2     2.9     42.9%    10.8
    75  Leandro Barbosa     30     BOS    18   13.4   15.9    3.9     1.5     47.8%    10.8
    76  Robin Lopez         24     NOH    17   27.5   15.7    1.4     1.8     57.5%    10.7
    77  Kevin Martin        29     OKC    19   29.6   19.0    2.0     2.0     54.8%    10.6
    78  Alexey Shved        24     MIN    17   24.9   15.7    5.3     2.8     45.5%    10.5
    79  Greg Monroe         22     DET    20   32.8   16.9    3.8     3.7     49.8%    10.5
    80  Pablo Prigioni      35     NYK    16   14.4   8.0     7.0     3.4     48.4%    10.5
    81  Sebastian Telfair   27     PHO    18   17.6   12.5    5.5     1.8     44.4%    10.5
    82  Brandon Knight      21     DET    20   30.9   15.1    6.0     4.0     46.0%    10.5
    83  Kirk Hinrich        32     CHI    16   27.4   8.5     7.6     2.5     38.0%    10.3
    84  Jeremy Lin          24     HOU    17   33.5   11.2    6.8     3.0     42.8%    10.3
    85  Dwight Howard       27     LAL    19   35.9   18.6    1.7     3.1     55.3%    10.3
    86  Serge Ibaka         23     OKC    19   31.4   16.6    0.4     1.8     62.4%    10.2
    87  Paul Millsap        27     UTA    20   31.2   16.6    2.9     2.4     50.6%    10.1
    88  A.J. Price          26     WAS    15   29.2   11.4    6.3     1.8     39.8%    10.1
    89  Jason Terry         35     BOS    18   28.8   15.0    2.8     1.6     54.0%    10.0
    90  Joakim Noah         27     CHI    17   39.4   11.9    3.9     2.4     51.4%    9.9
    91  Tayshaun Prince     32     DET    20   32.7   14.2    2.8     1.2     49.8%    9.8
    92  Rodney Stuckey      26     DET    19   28.3   12.7    5.0     1.7     42.4%    9.7
    93  Ryan Anderson       24     NOH    17   32.9   20.0    1.5     1.1     49.7%    9.7
    94  Jeremy Pargo        26     CLE    12   26.4   15.7    5.2     3.2     43.6%    9.6
    95  Andrei Kirilenko    31     MIN    13   36.4   12.9    3.3     2.6     54.8%    9.5
    96  Mario Chalmers      26     MIA    16   24.9   9.2     6.2     2.4     42.3%    9.5
    97  Zach Randolph       31     MEM    16   36.8   17.3    1.4     2.4     53.1%    9.5
    98  Ed Davis            23     TOR    19   15.8   14.1    1.4     1.8     58.4%    9.4
    99  DeMar DeRozan       23     TOR    19   37.2   17.6    1.8     1.7     49.4%    9.4
    100 Gary Neal           28     SAS    17   24.5   17.2    2.9     2.2     48.4%    9.3
    101 Luis Scola          32     PHO    19   27.5   16.6    2.1     1.9     49.4%    9.3
    102 Nick Collison       32     OKC    19   18.5   11.4    2.3     2.1     63.8%    9.3
    103 Chris Kaman         30     DAL    16   27.2   18.0    1.3     2.9     54.4%    9.3
    104 Thaddeus Young      24     PHI    18   35.1   14.8    1.4     1.3     53.6%    9.3
    105 Luol Deng           27     CHI    17   40.8   16.1    2.4     2.4     50.9%    9.2
    106 Glen Davis          27     ORL    18   32.4   17.7    2.3     1.9     46.7%    9.2
    107 Chris Duhon         30     LAL    15   21.2   5.4     6.0     1.2     43.7%    9.1
    108 J.R. Smith          27     NYK    17   33.2   14.7    3.1     1.3     45.9%    9.0
    109 Patrick Patterson   23     HOU    16   29.9   16.9    1.4     1.4     52.5%    9.0
    110 Boris Diaw          30     SAS    19   24.0   8.5     3.6     1.6     60.4%    9.0
    111 DeMarcus Cousins    22     SAC    15   30.1   19.9    2.4     3.2     46.7%    8.9
    112 Shannon Brown       27     PHO    19   23.8   18.0    3.0     2.2     45.4%    8.9
    113 Chandler Parsons    24     HOU    16   37.9   14.9    3.3     2.0     49.7%    8.9
    114 Carlos Boozer       31     CHI    17   29.6   16.4    2.5     2.4     47.9%    8.9
    115 Jimmy Butler        23     CHI    17   16.7   11.5    1.4     0.8     58.8%    8.9
    116 Arron Afflalo       27     ORL    18   34.8   16.7    2.6     2.2     48.6%    8.8
    117 Gordon Hayward      22     UTA    20   28.0   17.2    2.6     2.5     48.4%    8.8
    118 Nikola Pekovic      27     MIN    15   31.2   16.4    1.5     2.4     52.5%    8.8
    119 Pau Gasol           32     LAL    17   34.8   13.0    3.6     1.9     46.3%    8.8
    120 M. Kidd-Gilchrist   19     CH     17   27.2   14.3    2.2     2.1     51.8%    8.7
    121 Mike Dunleavy       32     MIL    15   26.7   14.5    3.2     1.5     47.7%    8.7
    122 Chris Wilcox        30     BOS    17   12.8   12.1    0.7     1.8     70.9%    8.7
    123 Vince Carter        36     DAL    18   23.4   20.4    2.6     1.9     46.0%    8.7
    124 Jermaine O'Neal     34     PHO    12   18.5   15.9    0.5     2.1     58.0%    8.7
    125 Amir Johnson        25     TOR    19   20.7   12.1    2.4     1.6     53.3%    8.7
    126 Joe Johnson         31     BRK    17   37.9   14.9    3.6     1.7     43.5%    8.7
    127 Samuel Dalembert    31     MIL    14   17.1   13.4    1.4     2.6     62.9%    8.6
    128 Andre Iguodala      29     DEN    19   35.4   14.7    3.9     3.0     47.1%    8.6
    129 Jonas Valanciunas   20     TOR    19   23.6   13.3    1.9     2.0     54.1%    8.6
    130 Josh Smith          27     ATL    14   34.6   16.7    3.7     3.2     44.7%    8.6
    131 Devin Harris        29     ATL    13   22.5   11.6    4.3     2.1     46.3%    8.5
    132 Shawn Marion        34     DAL    13   28.9   11.9    3.4     2.6     52.0%    8.4
    133 Jason Thompson      26     SAC    17   30.8   12.9    1.3     1.2     54.8%    8.3
    134 Tobias Harris       20     MIL    16   16.3   15.0    1.4     1.8     54.2%    8.3
    135 Kenneth Faried      23     DEN    19   30.4   15.2    0.7     1.7     55.4%    8.3
    136 Marcin Gortat       28     PHO    19   31.4   13.4    1.3     1.8     56.1%    8.3
    137 Wesley Matthews     26     POR    19   37.7   15.4    2.6     1.4     46.6%    8.2
    138 Nicolas Batum       24     POR    19   38.8   15.7    3.0     2.3     47.4%    8.2
    139 Isaiah Thomas       23     SAC    14   18.7   16.4    3.4     3.7     48.1%    8.1
    140 Rudy Gay            26     MEM    16   37.1   18.0    2.2     2.4     46.1%    8.0
    141 Danilo Gallinari    24     DEN    18   33.6   16.7    2.7     1.7     44.6%    8.0
    142 Marcus Thornton     25     SAC    17   28.1   18.5    1.9     1.1     44.7%    7.9
    143 Martell Webster     26     WAS    14   22.3   14.4    1.8     2.1     53.8%    7.9
    144 Dante Cunningham    25     MIN    17   22.3   13.0    1.0     0.8     51.5%    7.7
    145 Jason Smith         26     NOH    17   17.3   16.4    1.1     2.6     50.4%    7.7
    146 J.J. Hickson        24     POR    18   28.4   13.9    1.2     2.2     54.1%    7.7
    147 Kevin Love          24     MIN    8    34.4   20.3    2.5     2.4     42.6%    7.6
    148 DeMarre Carroll     26     UTA    15   17.1   12.2    1.4     0.6     50.6%    7.6
    149 Paul George         22     IND    19   35.2   15.3    3.5     2.6     43.8%    7.5
    150 E'Twaun Moore       23     ORL    18   25.5   13.5    4.3     3.1     43.6%    7.5
    151 Marquis Daniels     32     MIL    13   17.1   12.8    2.9     1.6     44.8%    7.4
    152 Aaron Brooks        28     SAC    17   22.9   12.3    3.4     1.7     44.4%    7.4
    153 Lance Stephenson    22     IND    19   25.5   9.6     3.5     1.9     48.1%    7.4
    154 Dion Waiters        21     CLE    17   32.0   17.1    3.8     2.1     40.0%    7.3
    155 DeAndre Jordan      24     LAC    18   25.9   14.1    0.5     2.2     57.4%    7.3
    156 Larry Sanders       24     MIL    17   22.7   12.4    1.4     2.1     55.6%    7.3
    157 DeJuan Blair        23     SAS    16   17.3   13.1    2.2     2.3     49.3%    7.2
    158 John Salmons        33     SAC    12   26.7   9.9     3.3     1.2     45.3%    7.2
    159 Zaza Pachulia       28     ATL    15   24.3   10.6    2.4     2.5     54.3%    7.2
    160 Randy Foye          29     UTA    20   26.2   15.7    2.5     1.6     45.3%    7.1
    161 D.J. Augustin       25     IND    19   13.3   9.0     6.5     2.1     31.2%    7.0
    162 Marvin Williams     26     UTA    17   27.5   13.4    1.4     1.3     50.5%    7.0
    163 Kevin Seraphin      23     WAS    14   25.0   17.0    1.7     3.5     48.0%    7.0
    164 C.J. Watson         28     BRK    17   18.9   13.0    3.4     1.7     42.0%    7.0
    165 Andre Drummond      19     DET    20   17.6   13.0    0.9     1.7     53.6%    7.0
    166 Kris Humphries      27     BRK    17   25.2   11.9    0.8     1.0     52.0%    7.0
    167 Jared Sullinger     20     BOS    18   18.2   11.0    1.2     1.1     54.1%    6.9
    168 Kawhi Leonard       21     SAS    9    28.9   13.2    1.7     2.4     54.1%    6.9
    169 Eric Maynor         25     OKC    19   13.6   10.7    5.6     2.4     35.7%    6.9
    170 P.J. Tucker         27     PHO    19   19.1   8.7     2.2     1.0     52.8%    6.9
    171 Kendrick Perkins    28     OKC    19   25.4   7.4     2.4     1.6     58.6%    6.8
    172 Kyle Singler        24     DET    20   27.6   12.9    1.2     1.4     52.4%    6.8
    173 Brandon Bass        27     BOS    18   27.9   12.5    1.1     1.1     49.7%    6.8
    174 Josh McRoberts      25     ORL    17   15.2   8.8     2.8     1.4     49.2%    6.7
    175 Jared Dudley        27     PHO    19   26.1   12.2    2.4     1.4     46.9%    6.7
    176 Jason Richardson    32     PHI    14   29.1   15.8    1.7     0.9     44.8%    6.7
    177 Chuck Hayes         29     SAC    17   20.5   5.7     3.8     1.2     44.4%    6.7
    178 Daniel Gibson       26     CLE    16   24.6   12.5    3.0     1.0     42.4%    6.7
    179 Thabo Sefolosha     28     OKC    19   28.2   9.6     2.4     1.3     52.9%    6.6
    180 Mike Miller         32     MIA    14   15.1   9.4     3.4     1.0     44.1%    6.6
    181 Harrison Barnes     20     GSW    18   27.9   12.7    1.9     1.7     48.7%    6.6
    182 Markieff Morris     23     PHO    19   21.3   15.0    2.0     1.6     44.3%    6.6
    183 Spencer Hawes       24     PHI    18   20.2   12.8    2.5     2.0     44.9%    6.6
    184 Antawn Jamison      36     LAL    19   20.3   14.6    1.2     1.5     50.4%    6.6
    185 Al-Farouq Aminu     22     NOH    17   31.2   11.3    2.3     2.9     50.3%    6.6
    186 Willie Green        31     LAC    15   18.2   12.3    2.0     1.3     48.8%    6.5
    187 Nick Young          27     PHI    16   23.3   14.9    2.0     1.4     43.6%    6.4
    188 Nikola Vucevic      22     ORL    18   29.9   12.0    1.9     2.0     48.2%    6.4
    189 Ronnie Brewer       27     NYK    17   22.6   11.4    2.1     0.6     44.7%    6.4
    190 Toney Douglas       26     HOU    16   16.3   14.8    4.0     3.2     41.6%    6.4
    191 Jordan Hill         25     LAL    18   14.6   14.5    1.1     2.6     50.2%    6.2
    192 Derrick Favors      21     UTA    17   22.8   14.7    0.8     2.4     49.8%    6.2
    193 Jason Maxiell       29     DET    20   26.8   11.6    0.9     1.8     53.2%    6.2
    194 Andrea Bargnani     27     TOR    18   34.1   17.8    1.5     1.9     43.7%    6.1
    195 Kyle Korver         31     ATL    13   29.3   13.2    2.0     0.9     45.3%    6.0
    196 Lavoy Allen         23     PHI    18   23.1   9.7     1.7     1.3     48.5%    5.9
    197 Norris Cole         24     MIA    14   19.6   9.3     4.2     2.6     40.4%    5.9
    198 Gerald Wallace      30     BRK    10   31.5   11.3    2.9     1.9     43.3%    5.9
    199 Elton Brand         33     DAL    17   22.3   10.8    2.5     1.8     44.7%    5.9
    200 Rashard Lewis       33     MIA    14   15.9   13.6    1.5     1.9     50.7%    5.9
    201 Enes Kanter         20     UTA    20   14.4   13.8    1.0     3.5     53.7%    5.9
    202 Kosta Koufos        23     DEN    18   21.6   10.6    0.8     1.2     52.3%    5.7
    203 Marco Belinelli     26     CHI    16   16.9   13.2    1.5     1.5     46.5%    5.7
    204 Malcolm Lee         22     MIN    14   18.4   10.0    2.7     1.1     42.1%    5.7
    205 Jeff Green          26     BOS    18   21.7   14.7    1.3     2.5     47.6%    5.7
    206 Meyers Leonard      20     POR    19   18.6   9.7     0.4     1.1     57.6%    5.6
    207 Tyler Hansbrough    27     IND    19   17.0   13.6    0.4     1.8     49.4%    5.6
    208 Ekpe Udoh           25     MIL    17   22.4   9.1     1.5     1.3     51.3%    5.6
    209 Alonzo Gee          25     CLE    19   32.9   13.0    2.2     2.6     45.4%    5.6
    210 Matt Barnes         32     LAC    17   25.3   12.1    1.6     1.7     47.6%    5.6
    211 Corey Brewer        26     DEN    19   22.9   17.2    1.2     1.7     44.3%    5.5
    212 Carlos Delfino      30     HOU    10   23.7   14.1    3.2     1.5     39.1%    5.5
    213 Emeka Okafor        30     WAS    15   21.3   11.8    1.5     1.5     45.3%    5.5
    214 Trevor Booker       25     WAS    9    24.1   10.1    2.2     2.0     45.9%    5.5
    215 Marreese Speights   25     MEM    16   15.6   14.5    1.4     2.2     44.4%    5.5
    216 Klay Thompson       22     GSW    18   35.2   16.4    2.2     2.1     41.9%    5.4
    217 Metta World Peace   33     LAL    19   35.5   13.1    2.1     1.9     44.9%    5.3
    218 Darius Morris       22     LAL    17   21.1   9.4     4.3     2.7     38.8%    5.3
    219 Marcus Morris       23     HOU    17   20.3   14.6    1.3     1.1     44.5%    5.3
    220 Thomas Robinson     21     SAC    15   16.3   11.4    1.6     3.2     51.7%    5.3
    221 Hasheem Thabeet     25     OKC    17   12.6   9.4     0.2     2.7     73.7%    5.3
    222 Jeff Taylor         23     CHA    16   25.9   11.3    1.4     1.2     47.1%    5.2
    223 Quincy Pondexter    24     MEM    16   24.0   9.8     2.2     0.9     43.7%    5.2
    224 Caron Butler        32     LAC    17   24.6   14.7    1.4     1.3     44.2%    5.2
    225 Omer Asik           26     HOU    17   32.3   12.2    1.3     3.1     51.7%    5.1
    226 Michael Beasley     24     PHO    19   27.8   14.8    3.1     3.4     40.8%    5.1
    227 Taj Gibson          27     CHI    17   20.8   10.9    1.5     2.0     46.9%    5.1
    228 Trevor Ariza        27     WAS    15   25.1   11.6    3.0     1.9     39.2%    5.0
    229 Chris Singleton     23     WAS    15   17.6   10.8    1.5     1.9     46.7%    5.0
    230 Tristan Thompson    21     CLE    19   30.5   10.6    1.4     1.7     47.1%    5.0
    231 Roger Mason         32     NOH    17   21.0   9.5     2.2     1.0     42.1%    4.9
    232 Ersan Ilyasova      25     MIL    16   23.3   11.7    2.2     1.0     39.6%    4.9
    233 Bradley Beal        19     WAS    15   27.0   14.6    2.4     2.2     40.4%    4.8
    234 Wayne Ellington     25     MEM    16   16.9   10.8    2.7     0.9     38.1%    4.8
    235 Jae Crowder         22     DAL    17   20.0   11.6    2.3     1.4     40.9%    4.7
    236 Darius Miller       22     NOH    16   13.3   5.6     2.7     0.8     41.0%    4.6
    237 Derrick Williams    21     MIN    14   19.9   16.3    1.0     2.3     43.7%    4.5
    238 Omri Casspi         24     CLE    15   14.3   14.9    1.0     1.7     45.2%    4.5
    239 Danny Green         25     SAS    17   30.2   11.6    1.7     1.3     43.4%    4.5
    240 Courtney Lee        27     BOS    18   24.6   8.3     2.1     2.1     47.1%    4.4
    241 Stephen Jackson     34     SAS    10   23.2   11.9    2.3     2.0     41.4%    4.4
    242 Tony Allen          31     MEM    13   24.4   11.8    0.9     1.5     44.6%    4.4
    243 Tyler Zeller        23     CLE    15   22.3   11.1    1.3     1.9     45.4%    4.4
    244 Brendan Haywood     33     CHA    16   27.3   8.4     0.8     1.7     54.3%    4.3
    245 Austin Rivers       20     NOH    16   27.0   8.1     4.0     2.0     33.6%    4.3
    246 Rasheed Wallace     38     NYK    16   14.8   16.8    0.8     1.2     41.2%    4.1
    247 Maurice Harkless    19     ORL    15   18.1   8.1     1.2     1.1     46.5%    4.1
    248 Byron Mullens       23     CHA    17   32.7   13.7    1.4     1.4     40.4%    3.9
    249 Ian Mahinmi         26     IND    19   14.9   12.5    0.4     3.2     50.5%    3.8
    250 Ryan Hollins        28     LAC    17   12.8   7.6     0.3     2.3     64.8%    3.7
    251 Reggie Evans        32     BRK    16   19.6   5.6     1.3     2.1     58.3%    3.6
    252 Dahntay Jones       32     DAL    18   11.1   9.2     1.3     1.1     42.9%    3.6
    253 Jodie Meeks         25     LAL    17   13.4   15.4    2.5     2.5     38.7%    3.6
    254 Steve Novak         29     NYK    17   23.9   12.3    0.6     0.3     42.1%    3.5
    255 Roy Hibbert         26     IND    19   29.4   11.9    1.7     2.4     40.6%    3.4
    256 Terrence Ross       21     TOR    17   15.4   13.4    1.2     1.8     41.0%    3.3
    257 Dominic McGuire     27     TOR    15   15.3   5.0     1.6     1.1     45.7%    3.3
    258 Dorell Wright       27     PHI    18   21.4   13.2    1.6     1.8     39.8%    3.2
    259 Shane Battier       34     MIA    13   26.5   9.5     1.0     1.0     45.7%    3.2
    260 Jonas Jerebko       25     DET    13   17.0   12.2    1.1     1.5     40.0%    3.1
    261 Linas Kleiza        28     TOR    11   19.7   12.8    1.3     1.8     39.9%    3.1
    262 DeShawn Stevenson   31     ATL    12   26.2   9.1     1.4     0.8     40.9%    3.0
    263 Sam Young           27     IND    17   16.5   9.6     1.9     2.2     40.0%    2.9
    264 Bismack Biyombo     20     CHA    15   21.1   7.3     0.3     1.6     52.5%    2.9
    265 Keith Bogans        32     BRK    15   14.3   7.4     2.9     1.9     34.0%    2.7
    266 Gerald Green        27     IND    19   21.9   12.3    0.9     1.7     40.5%    2.5
    267 Troy Murphy         32     DAL    14   18.3   9.1     1.0     1.0     40.6%    2.5
    268 James Johnson       25     SAC    17   19.5   8.8     2.1     2.8     39.9%    2.5
    269 Festus Ezeli        23     GSW    18   16.8   7.7     0.5     1.8     47.4%    2.3
    270 Udonis Haslem       32     MIA    16   17.9   7.0     0.8     2.1     48.3%    2.2
    271 Draymond Green      22     GSW    18   11.6   6.9     1.2     1.4     36.7%    1.3
    272 Lamar Odom          33     LAC    18   14.3   5.7     2.7     2.0     29.8%    1.0
    273 C.J. Miles          25     CLE    13   15.5   14.1    1.6     2.7     33.7%    -0.1[/SIZE]
    
    Here it is for just Rockets players:

    Code:
    [SIZE="1"]    [B]Player              Age    Tm     G    MPG    PTS/36  AST/36  TOV/36  Score%   PLM_RTG[/B]
    38  James Harden        23     HOU    17   38.8   21.9    5.0     3.8     49.9%    13.3
    84  Jeremy Lin          24     HOU    17   33.5   11.2    6.8     3.0     42.8%    10.3
    109 Patrick Patterson   23     HOU    16   29.9   16.9    1.4     1.4     52.5%    9.0
    113 Chandler Parsons    24     HOU    16   37.9   14.9    3.3     2.0     49.7%    8.9
    190 Toney Douglas       26     HOU    16   16.3   14.8    4.0     3.2     41.6%    6.4
    212 Carlos Delfino      30     HOU    10   23.7   14.1    3.2     1.5     39.1%    5.5
    219 Marcus Morris       23     HOU    17   20.3   14.6    1.3     1.1     44.5%    5.3
    225 Omer Asik           26     HOU    17   32.3   12.2    1.3     3.1     51.7%    5.1[/SIZE]
    
    Last year, Lin's PLM_RTG was exceptional for a young player -- 17.3. Harden, in a smaller role with OKC, had a PLM_RTG of 14.3. Harden's 13.3 PLM_RTG this year is above average for his position, but not close to an "elite" level for playmaking perimeter players. He'll need to improve. As for Lin, there's no question that Lin had a fantastic run last year over a 2-3 week period when the Knicks essentially turned the keys to the offense over to him. Typically, when you increase the "usage" for a player their efficiency will drop. So the question I have is should we expect Lin to revert to last year's form (and something close to that) if we give him more playmaking responsibility? Or will his efficiency remain well below average? I don't think the Rockets want to take that risk, so in my opinion Lin needs to prove that he can make plays in an efficient manner (that means, up the FG% and do a better job at getting to the line) with the touches he currently has. He can get comfortable to doing that in a somewhat reduced role, he'll gradually be given more opportunities to do that in a larger role.
     
    #1 durvasa, Dec 6, 2012
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2012
    3 people like this.
  2. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member
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    So, the formula assumes every 1.5 "attempted assists" leads to one actual assist for every player?
     
  3. rockbox

    rockbox Contributing Member
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    I find that ratio, somewhat high. You pass to a jumpshooter, he has less than 66% probability of making it.

    BTW, thanks for doing this. I was going to attempt to do it but the some of the '12ers aren't worth my time or effort.
     
  4. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Yeah, the rationale is that when you make a "potential" assist, it will result in an actual assist about 2/3 of the time. It is of course a simplification. I suppose that multiplier could realistically be anywhere from 1 to 3. 1.5 seemed about right to me.
     
  5. RedEyesKirby

    RedEyesKirby Member

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    I don't understand why assist gets 1.5 multiplier for attempts, while 1 for managed. Doesn't that completely downplays the assist of playmaking?
     
  6. phantoman

    phantoman Contributing Member

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    great post,

    I was wondering if you could measure this out for Lin and harden with out each other on the floor.....it would be interesting to see, I would assume the play maker ability goes up for both. My theory is that because both require the ball they actually have a reduced play making ability being on the floor together. THoughts?
     
  7. kevC

    kevC H-Town Bowen
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    I understand your reasoning for not giving extra credit for 3 pointers but to me this would still be much more interesting if it did.
     
  8. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    What do you mean by "managed"?
     
  9. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Rookie

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    In other words, James Harden and Jeremy Lin needs to pass more. Both need to average 8+ assists a game.
     
  10. Arthurprescott2

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    There are 6 guys in the league who average 8+ assists a game. JUST 6. And all of them are the primary playmakers for their teams with a minimum of 20% USG. But you're asking two guys who share playmaking responsibilities to AVERAGE 8+ assists a game?
     
  11. RedEyesKirby

    RedEyesKirby Member

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    Let me clarify a bit. Tell me if I misunderstood, but in your calculations

    PLA = FGA + 0.5*FTA + 1.5*AST + TOV ("plays attempted")
    PLM = FGM + 0.5*FTM + AST ("plays made")
    PLX = PLA - PLM ("plays failed")


    Is the AST for PLM a stat calculated for when the assisted player scores? For example, every time the assisted player scores, the assist player gets one AST to his stat.

    And so I assumed it'd made sense that the attempts for assist be the same ratio as the made assist because if not, the PLX rating will be heavily counted towards scoring players, where as AST contributes the same amount of points as a FGM. So if you could clarify that for me that'd be great.

    However, good job on collecting the data, there's one more question I have and that is if this also includes AST that leads to FTA.
     
  12. torocan

    torocan Member

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    Interesting analysis.

    Only a couple things.

    While I understand your argument for excluding 3 point shots, given that the 3 point shots are weighted in score value, it seems unusual to NOT include them.

    The corner 3 pointer is the 2nd most efficient shot in basketball (just behind shots at the rim). A player that generates more 3 point shots and shots at the rim is by definition creating better "plays" than one that generates shots in the mid range. Similarly, a player who shoots 33% from 3point land is MORE efficient than a player who shoots 40% from 2 point land. This should be accurately represented.

    The FT metric seems a bit high. Most analyses only attribute 0.44 to FT's, as some portion of them is And1's vs pure foul shots.

    Finally, I do have concerns that this calculation doesn't include the percentage of "empty" assists. IE, passes that lead to FT's (which would ideally be attributed to some degree). In terms of tracking assists, those who are on teams where they have high percentage shooters have their numbers invariably skewed towards those that have team mates with lower percentage shooters.

    I know there's no ready source of this data (outside of picking apart Synergy replays), however without this data, it's seems that you're going to end up with some rather bizarre results. Perhaps there is a way to normalize the results around average shooting levels in terms of assists generated?

    As for "making" the play vs "finishing" the play, perhaps you *could* look at %age points assisted and work off some derivative of that?

    According to your numbers, Tyson Chandler is number 44... which is absolutely bizarre. Do you really see Tyson Chandler as the "go to" ball handler on ANY team? :eek:
     
  13. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Rookie

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    Mostly Harden.
     
  14. Rip Van Rocket

    Rip Van Rocket Contributing Member

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    I don't really think of Patrick Patterson as a better playmaker than Chandler Parsons.
     
  15. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    AST is just what's recorded in the boxscore. So for every assist that leads to a made basket, I'm giving 1 credit to the assistant. The formula is assuming, essentially, that the success rate for a potential assist is 67%. It could be argued that this is a touch too high, meaning players with high assist totals are getting a little too much credit. On the other hand, I'm not giving credit for potential assists leading to trip to the foul line. So (I hope) it comes close to "evening out".
     
  16. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Thanks for the good feedback. I have some thoughts on addressing the "play maker" versus "play finisher" issue (I agree with above poster who thought Patterson's rating was to high relative to Parsons's). As I alluded to in the first post, I'll need to make use of %Ast or estimate it.

    By the way, another one of my reasons for not giving extra credit to 3-point shots is I didn't want to bias the rating towards spot-up shooters who rely on plays created by others. Maybe I can avoid this by incorporating %Ast.

    And I went with 0.5 instead of 0.44 mostly because it makes the formula look cleaner :))), but seriously I think the ability to get to the line is a special skill for "playmakers" that deserves a little extra weightage.
     
    #16 durvasa, Dec 6, 2012
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2012
  17. TTNN

    TTNN Member

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    pure mathematically:

    PLM_RTG = (LgPace/TmPace) * (36/MP) * (2*PLM- PLX) ("playmaking rating")

    this term is more related to how many plays you made in a game than how good the play you made though. It pretty much telling that in your team pace, normalized to 36min, how may play you made and off set with bad plays. It has nothing to do with what percentage of the play you made is good.

    Any chance to list the actual numbers of PLA, PLM and PLX numbers for the player? I'd like to see PLX/PLA number, that might be a better number to say who is better in play making.

    I think PLM_RTG is more of an indication on who is the main play maker in the league or who is most efficient in making play given playing time. And in our team, that has a lot to do with who is given the right to make play.

    Thus use this data to prove who should be given more right to make play is really misleading.

    However, really appreciate OP digging out the data and introduce the analysis though...
     
  18. torocan

    torocan Member

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    82 games has a nice breakdown of %assisted.

    For example, it currently has Tyson Chandler being assisted on 64% of his plays. It also has them broken down by range/type, but unfortunately does not distinguish between 3 point assists and jump shot assists.

    http://www.82games.com/1213/12NYK15.HTM

    The only down side is you would have to extract it as 82games doesn't really have a search tool for that (as far as I know). Still, it would help to normalize some of your results to something a little more representative of what you're trying to find.
     
  19. AdrenaLINe

    AdrenaLINe Rookie

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    I think this is all moot... Lin wont be here in 3 years times... I do not think he will be able to improve his outside shooting before his contract expires... there is better PGs suited for the direction this team is taking... and that will factor in if Lin stays
     
  20. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Yeah, like I said in the first post its available at HoopData.com:

    http://hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx

    I think what I'll do is make use of that for this season, and create an estimator for %Ast using the conventional box score stats so that PLM_RTG can be calculated for historical player-seasons as well.
     
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