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McHugh

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by DaChamp, Apr 7, 2017.

  1. lnchan

    lnchan Member
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    It's an audition for the next round :D
     
  2. Houstunna

    Houstunna The Most Unbiased Fan
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    Collin Muck You
     
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  3. DaChamp

    DaChamp Member

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    I would have kept White instead of Centeno. Three catchers? I can understand that approach if Centeno was significantly better defensively than either McCann or Gattis. I don't think he is.
     
  4. rocketpower2

    rocketpower2 Member

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    Need the 3rd catcher so you can

    1. Have the option to DH Gattis

    or

    2. PR for McCann late in the game
     
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  5. lnchan

    lnchan Member
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    Can't complain about McHugh tonight...
     
  6. marks0223

    marks0223 Astros 2017 Champions
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    If it got to a game 7, he's the starter
     
  7. Houstunna

    Houstunna The Most Unbiased Fan
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    He's pitched the best outside of the 2 aces. Least pressure too.

    I'm not necessary opposed though.
     
  8. lnchan

    lnchan Member
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    so many flukes in the game... but at least we have momentum
     
  9. el_locoteee

    el_locoteee Member

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    Yep if McCullers pitch well tomorrow, it will vote well for us going going forward.

    That means we can use Peacock and either McHugh or Morton as relievers that can got multiple innings. That's unique.
     
  10. lnchan

    lnchan Member
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    Collin McHugh --

    The result: a guy who never won a game before is 48–28 since joining Houston, the 11th best winning percentage (.632) among starters over these past four seasons.

    Again, if he's our #5 starter, I can't complain.
     
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  11. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Well, if his last bullpen appearance of 2017 is any indication (game 5 of the WS), lets hope his arm is healthy enough to last as a starter the whole year.

    He's good depth... but expecting him to be as good as he was at the start of his Astro career is a long-shot.
     
  12. sealclubber1016

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    That's an odd statement to make.

    Nobody expects him to be as good as he was in 2014, or else he would be a hell of a lot more hyped. He he has been pretty consistently solid over the last 3 years. He also had 3 pretty much injury free seasons before last year, so I see no real reason to question his durability. Unless you are seriously chalking up one bad outing in the WS as a trend.

    21-11
    21-12
    7-5
    49-28 4.03 ERA 3.76 FIP

    That's the teams record in the last 3 seasons when McHugh starts. If that's your 5/6 starter, you are in pretty f**king awesome shape.
     
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  13. RasaqBoi

    RasaqBoi Member

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  14. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    I have no problem with them actively trying to upgrade from McHugh.

    He’s had moments... but he has shown regression since he initially got here. Last year’s arm trouble doesn’t necessarily give me optimism for future health... and he was throwing his curve less, possibly due to the strain contributing to said arm trouble (wasn’t impressed with the slider he developed to try and off-set that).

    Basically, he’s trending closer to where Mike Fiers ended up being, vs. where the other starters are now... which again, is not bad for a 5/6, but again, I’d take all the upgrades and starting pitching depth possible (including possibly considering Peacock over him).

    His playoff usage was indicative of where he is on the pecking order at this time... and that’s not considering them trying to work Martes (if he’s still here) in as well.
     
  15. Major

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    Wait - what trend is that? His 2017 was (albeit a small sample size) his best since 2014. He's only had one bad year - 2016 - and that wasn't even terrible. And it's not like he as a long injury history - this was a major injury, but he hasn't had any kind of history of problems.
     
  16. sealclubber1016

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    The Astros may be losing Morton and Keuchel after this year, have a guy in McCullers who seems incapable of going a full season and prospects. Worrying about a team controlled, league average starter really doesn't feel like a significant concern.

    And playoff pecking order isn't the regular season, there's a reason Mike Fiers led us in innings pitched, guys get hurt.
     
  17. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    I said it didn’t cause optimism.

    His overall peripherals have regressed since 2014.
     
  18. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    He’s good depth.... I’m not worried about him, but I totally do support their decision to attempt to upgrade the staff, and if so, he may be the odd one out (or the pitcher with the least amount of leeway/rope... again, basically the Fiers 2017 role).
     
  19. Jeremy Williams

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    I also fully support the decision to upgrade the staff. We are going to need 10-12 starting pitchers to get through the season. Having another ace will make a huge difference for this year and the following years.

    Verlander, Keuchel, Darvish/Cole, McCullers, Morton, Peacock, McHugh, Martes, Musgrove, Paulino, Feliz, Rodgers, Whitley.

    Not a bad squad at all.
     
  20. pw1993

    pw1993 Member

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    I'm happy to see McHugh pitch through July and see what he can deliver. If he's looking healthy and keeping runs off the board, great, but if not, he can be traded for an upgrade at the deadline. While his ERA last year was fine, there might be some cause for concern insofar as --

    * his FIP and xFIP have been trending in the wrong direction for 4 years straight (xFIP of 3.11, 3.91, 4.09, 4.59 from 2014-2017)
    * his groundball rate was way down last year and his flyball rate was way up
    * soft contact rate has fallen for 4 years straight
    * Fastball usage shot up from around 35% in 2016 to 51% last season
    * Fastball velocity has dropped 4 years straight (92.4, 91.3, 91.0, 90.7 from 2014-2017)

    Overall, throwing a greater number of (slower) fastballs that generate more medium to hard contact than McHugh has seen in previous years could cause his ERA to drift closer to his xFIP in the >4.50 area. If that happens, it might make sense to trade him while he still has some value or move him to long relief. Armenteros and/or a new and improved Martes might be ready by July/August so perhaps it wouldn't even be necessary to look outside the organization to replace McHugh in the rotation.
     
    #60 pw1993, Jan 12, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2018
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