Keuchel is going to have a great year. However, he's not going to be the best pitcher on the Astros, imo. I like pitchers that are boring and fascist. McHugh is looking like a true No. 1. McHugh has one of the best curveballs as his strikeout pitch. He's throwing his cutter/slider more. His four seam fastball plays very fast due to the curveball and cutter/slider. With health, McHugh will be one of the best ten pitchers in baseball. Here's an article about McHugh's increased usage of his cutter/slider. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/collin-mchugh-continues-to-trust-his-slider/ In his final ten starts of 2014, McHugh allowed fewer than three runs nine times and walked a total of seven batters while striking out 55. To give you a better handle on that run, it spanned 66 innings and resulted in a 1.77 ERA and 2.42 FIP. Add in those two nice 2015 starts and he’s up to 77.2 innings, 70 strikeouts, and 9 walks. Since August 1, 2014, Collin McHugh has basically been Clayton Kershaw.
If Keuchel and McHugh continue to pitch like true aces, we have a serious shot at winning the AL West
How do I unjinx this threat? Seriously, if the Big 2 match last season (and I agree with OP that McHugh has the ability to exceed 2014), then a lot would have to go wrong for this team not to be a playoff contender.
It's obviously incredibly early, but Keuchel has thrown 20 innings and had been scored on in ONE of those innings. Coming off a year with a sub 3 era, that is true front of the rotation stuff And yea I agree with OP, McHugh has a good shot to be even better than Keuchel. To think we really gave up nothing to get McHugh, makes it even better
Just to add one more thing McHugh has thrown 11 2/3 innings and has given up single runs in two of those innings That is 31 2/3 innings for Dallas and Colin, and they have been scored on in 3 of them....easy to see why we have not lost a game either of them started
On Keuchel, he's been pitching great. However, he's also lucky that he has himself playing defense which has made him look even better on the mound.
We should asterisk all of Keuchel's wins. If he wasn't himself then he wouldn't have his own advantages working for him.
Huh??? Shouldn't that be part of it? Certainly isn't "luck". That's probably not the word you should be using to describe that situation.
And regarding McHugh, I think the only real concern is this re-occuring "blister" situation that can be pretty tough to deal with. He had issues with it last year and had him leave his first game a little earlier than needed (but not that early). As long as he has a feel for that curve, he's going to be very very good.
The "lucky" was sarcasm that fell flat over the internet. Keuchel has been showing off his gold glove so far this season and his ERA should outperform what his peripheral stats suggests.
Personally, I prefer to rate fielding and pitching separately and then combine into an overall value number. Keuchel being a ground ball pitcher and a great fielder has a very nice synergistic effect. And to clarify, it isn't luck or a coincidence that Keuchel is playing defense every time Keuchel pitches.
The confusion is understandable. I use "luck" too often when descriptive stats and predictive stats disagree and was trying to poke fun at myself.
