Magic hire John Hammond as GM

and yesterday...

 

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...eview-nba-5-5-aaron-gordon-elfrid-payton-more

Who will be the Magic's best player going forward? What is their biggest need?

Our 5-on-5 crew debates and predicts Orlando's offseason under new president Jeff Weltman and new general manager John Hammond.

1. Who will be Orlando's best player going forward?

Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: Aaron Gordon. Last season wasn't the leap that many expected from the 21-year-old, but I still have more faith in him than I do in Elfrid Payton. Gordon has freakish athleticism, but should be playing more at the 4, where his iffy shot can be masked more than at the 3.

Of the four lineups he played in most, three of them had him at the small forward slot, where they hemorrhaged points. The one lineup with him at the 4? Positive net rating. Keep him there.

Micah Adams, ESPN Stats & Info: I think there's a very good chance the answer to this question is whomever they draft in June. Though Aaron Gordon certainly has the physical tools to be a special player, almost all of his per 36 minutes stats aside from scoring took a dip in his third season. While his best-case scenario could be along the lines of Shawn Marion or Blake Griffin, I think those chances are slimmer than the Magic finding a future All-Star in this loaded draft.

Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: It's hard to say, which in a nutshell is the reason that recently fired GM Rob Hennigan no longer is running the Magic's basketball department. That's unfair in that Orlando has had bad luck in the draft, getting their highest picks in poor drafts. Missing out on Kristaps Porzingis by one spot in 2015 was really the killer. Of the players on hand, I'd most want Aaron Gordon's future -- and even with him, I don't see the offensive upside of a cornerstone player.

Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: According to real plus-minus (RPM), four current Magic players had very similar impacts this season: Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton, Terrence Ross and Nikola Vucevic were all rated somewhere around 0.5.

Payton and Gordon are the youngest of the two and are thus likely to improve the most. The PG position is the hardest to learn, so that'd be an argument for Payton. On the other hand, Gordon probably has more upside thanks to his freakish athleticism.

Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: Aaron Gordon. While I'm a proud owner of beachfront property on Elfrid Payton Peninsula, if you're betting on one Magic player going forward it has to be Gordon.

He won't turn 22 until September and has had good stretches as a starting power forward after the past two All-Star breaks. Now that the wing experiment appears over, Gordon should settle in as a solid contributor at both ends of the court.

2. At which position does Orlando have the greatest need?

Adams: They need scoring, no matter the position. In his latest mock draft, Chad Ford has the Magic choosing between Jayson Tatum and Dennis Smith. I think either of them would be fantastic selections both moving forward and playing alongside the current pieces on the roster, though selecting Smith could have a domino effect on how they proceed with Payton.

Doolittle: Everything but center. Beyond that, the Magic just need a feature scorer and that can come at any spot 1 through 4, because Gordon and the wings have the versatility to slide over to make room. The ideal would be an elite scoring/passing point guard like the ones near the top of this year's draft. If Dennis Smith is evaluated to be that guy with the No. 6 pick, great. If not, then you have to take the best pure scorer on the board.

Haberstroh: Small forward. They need an upgrade at just about every position, to be honest. But according to 82games.com tracking, the small forward slot in Orlando had a 10.7 PER last season, one of the largest craters in the NBA for any position -- hence, the Gordon small forward experiment. Terrence Ross will be a solid stopgap but isn't the long-term answer.

Engelmann: No one from the starting unit really sticks out as being significantly better or worse than his teammates. Thus, the Magic's go-to rule in the draft and on the free agent market should be: get the best player available.

Pelton: Is "3-and-D" a position? Ideally, Terrence Ross would be that guy, but at 6-foot-7, 206 he's too small to defend many of the league's best small forwards. The Magic could use someone with the size to defend combo forwards but can't afford to sacrifice shooting ability with non-shooters Gordon, Payton and Nikola Vucevic (or alternatively Bismack Biyombo) already in the starting lineup.

3. Elfrid Payton and Aaron Gordon can be restricted free agents in 2018. The Magic should move aggressively this offseason to extend ... A. Payton B. Gordon C. Both D. Neither

Pelton: C. Assuming Orlando spends its available cap space this summer, there won't be much left for the summer of 2018 and trying to extend both Gordon and Payton makes sense. Because they haven't yet played as well in the NBA as they should during their next contract, it's possible the Magic could get good value with both players on extensions. Payton in particular fits the model of point guards whose extensions have proven bargains as they've developed later in their careers.

Engelmann: D. Obviously it depends on the price, but neither player has set the world on fire in his first three seasons. They are still very young and have potential, but the Magic should try to find a star first and surround him with talent instead of signing their mediocre players to large deals.

Adams: Definitely Gordon. Despite the chances of him not developing into a franchise player, I still think it's a gamble Orlando has to make since high upside players of that ilk do not come around often. There could be an opportunity to lock him up now for a lesser cost that what it may take to keep him next summer when another team could dangle a max offer.

And potentially Payton, depending on whom they select in the draft. As his role has increased in each of his three seasons, Payton's assist rate has climbed while his turnover rate has dropped. Payton and Chris Paul were the only players with an assist rate of 35 percent or more and a turnover rate of 15 percent or less this past season. Payton is maturing as a lead guard and if the Magic don't select a point guard in the draft, he looks like a keeper.

Doolittle: B. Gordon can be an impact two-way player just on the basis of his floor game, and he's still young enough to develop a playable face-up game off the ball on offense. Payton's shooting is going to be a constant headache and it's just too hard to build an offense in today's NBA around a non-shooting point guard.

Haberstroh: D. Let's just say I wouldn't be knocking down either's door the moment the negotiating period begins. Gordon played better once Serge Ibaka left the power forward slot to him (19 points and eight rebounds per game in April) but that's not enough to warrant a $20 million annual extension. Look for the Magic to low-ball Gordon and then wait for restricted free agency.​

 

4. What trade would you like to see Orlando make?

Doolittle: Moving up in the draft makes sense if you can get Markelle Fultz or Lonzo Ball, but it's hard to see a trade match there with either the Celtics or Lakers.

If Orlando wants to move on from Payton, then finding him a new home for him makes sense. New GM John Hammond has been proactive in this respect before, as he was when he dealt Brandon Knight from Milwaukee to Phoenix rather than carry him into restricted free agency. Doing something with Philly would work great for Orlando, if you can sweeten the pot enough to bring back Dario Saric or Jahlil Okafor.

Pelton: The Magic have four of the draft's first 35 picks, which gives them the flexibility to trade up a few spots from the No. 25 pick if a target slips into the early 20s but doesn't appear likely to make it all the way to No. 25.

Engelmann: I'm very much in favor of blowing things up, because the current roster has an extremely low ceiling. If you finish fifth-worst in the league despite not giving a significant number of minutes to first- or second-year players, it's not a good sign. The Magic need to find stars, probably in a way similar to Sam Hinkie's attempts when he was GM of the 76ers.

Haberstroh: GM John Hammond and president Jeff Weltman will obviously feel pressured to make a splash upon arrival, but there just isn't much juice on this roster for them to work with. I'd love to see them move Nikola Vucevic to a contender who needs a scoring punch off the bench a la Greg Monroe (Memphis?), but the market for that kind of big man may be ice cold. One thing's clear: They must keep all whiteboards under wraps.

Adams: I would trade either Nikola Vucevic or Bismack Biyombo. Vucevic is probably Orlando's best player. At only 26 years old, he is owed a very reasonable $25 million over the next two seasons. Typically, it wouldn't make any sense to move a player like that, but with his role in the offense also potentially stunting Gordon's offensive growth, the Magic should consider it.

However, if they think Gordon and Vucevic can thrive together, I would try and unload Biyombo -- though that may be difficult just one season into a deal that pays him $17 million over each of the next three seasons.

5. Magic CEO Alex Martins said Orlando will win "at least one championship" by 2030. Do you agree?

Haberstroh: Was that supposed to make Magic fans feel any better? A five-year-old Magic fan should be doing backflips because the Magic promised a ring by the time he or she hits college?

Hate to break Magic superfans this news, but in the past 13 years, only eight franchises have won a title. Going forward, I don't see a path to join that sacred eight. You can say there's one for about 25 other teams, but not the Magic. Maybe Hammond can find another Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Engelmann: No. The current roster is a mess and the Magic are suffering from the residual effects of their old front office: Bismack Biyombo (RPM: -2.6) and D.J. Augustin (RPM: -4.6) will make a combined $24 million per season through 2020. Even assuming every team has an equal chance of winning a championship after 2020, they only have a 29 percent of grabbing a title over those next 10 years.

Pelton: I wouldn't bet on it at even odds, that's for sure. Given there are just 13 more championships through 2030, the average team is unlikely to win a championship by then. And the Magic are near the bottom of the league in championship likelihood given they don't have a player on the roster with obvious superstar potential and have few avenues to acquire such a player.

Doolittle: I will also win the Nobel Prize in literature by 2030. Hey, lots of things can happen in 13 years. The new regime isn't starting at ground zero, but when there is no clear star player on board and no clear avenue to get one, you're as far from a title as the Nets, Knicks, Kings and other also-rans.

Adams: Sure. The combination of Hammond's history of swinging for the fences with late lottery picks (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Thon Maker) and the current high upside of players like Gordon and Payton coupled with Orlando's potential as a sunny and desirable free agent destination make that a reasonable assertion.

That said, 2030 is a galaxy away in NBA terms, so I think "win a playoff series by 2020" would be a much better goal to shoot for and one far more valuable in evaluating the direction of the franchise.​