He makes for a good pinch runner and 4th OF type... except they already have one of those with Marisnick. When Yuli comes back, Marwin will get more LF starts, which could limit Fisher's everyday AB's further. In the end, its a numbers game... and Fisher would have to over-achieve to fully keep Tucker from being promoted sooner rather than later (again, presuming super 2 is no longer a concern... which I have no clue whether or not this front office takes into account possible upcoming CBA changes).
I think the super 2 deadline is supposed to be closer to July 1st, but who knows. There are more teams tanking now than ever before...that could mean more early callups, which would push the date sooner (not an MLB CBA expert here). Let's remember that this isn't coming out of nowhere. He was one of the youngest guys in double A last year. Our best spring training performer, and one of the best in all of baseball. Small sample size of course, but he's killing the ball in AAA. There's going to be a lot of pressure on the organization to bring him up if he keeps hitting like this.
I disagree with your last sentence. As long as Houston is winning and Marwin/Marisnick are playing adequately in LF, there shouldn’t be any pressure whatsoever to call Tucker up before he’s played at least 50 games in AAA. If he gets thru 2 months in Fresno and is still dominating, then there may be some pressure to make room for him. Basically the only way they’ll call him up before July is if all 3 (LF struggling, Houston losing, Tucker mashing) happen, which is incredibly unlikely. If Fisher and Davis keep struggling, Houston is far more likely to call up Kemp or White to replace them.
Neither Correa nor Bregman spent 50 games at AAA. Also, this team will never "need" a rookie callup... they will call him up when they feel he is ready and it fits the arbitration/extra year criteria. The only reason we're speculating that it could be before the super 2 deadline is that there may not be a super 2 deadline after the next CBA negotiation, which would precede Tucker's presumed arbitration start.
Not really... If anything, you could claim that this team is in win now mode, regardless of payroll/arbitration stipulations. If Tucker is going to make the team better, and he's ready, they're going to optimize as much as they can around their core. Calling up half-measures like Kemp/White, who aren't expected to have anywhere close to the ceiling that Tucker is, really doesn't fit any sort of strategy.... other than trying to run out the clock due to arbitration reasons. And if the plan is to call up Tucker this year... and the Super 2 deadline no longer matters... something could happen sooner rather than later. Otherwise, its July.
There’s virtually no chance the marginal difference between Tucker and Fisher/Kemp/etc over <50 games over the 1st half of this season is worth the risk of detrimental development or an additional arbitration season. Houston is going to run away with the division regardless of whether they call up Tucker or not. That is the difference between now and when Correa/Bregman were brought up.
I agree with this - the Astros don’t need to take any Super 2 risk with Tucker. With Yuli back soon, it’s really Tucker vs Fisher, Marisnick, and Marwin. Does he have more upside? Sure. But I’d rather Tucker keep getting regular at bats while we find out more about Fisher and Jake. With respect to Bregman, comparing Tucker to a guy who played in college isn’t quite the same. For Correa, I’d bet he would’ve played more AAA if he hadn’t been hit with the season ending injury the year before.
Sure, if extra arbitration is guaranteed by keeping him down, keep him down. My premise is based on the possibility that there will no longer be super 2 at the next CBA.
I wouldn’t say there is 0% chance, but I agree they are likely to really value that potential full season of control. Having said that I don’t expect Fisher to hit or Marwin to do anything close to last season. So I think there will be some pressure to make a move. Still getting a LF bat shouldn’t be too expensive in trade. Also the lack of production in LF will be less of an issue if Yuli is producing and we are getting solid DH production.
Basically where I'm at except keeping down until June something is more a money thing. I'm guessing Astros think they can spend that money more productively (i.e., more wins) than having Tucker up about 5-6 weeks earlier. I expect Fisher to be slightly above replacement level. Marwin probably isn't as good as last year suggests, but I think he is a little better than he was previously. All this said, I will be happy if they call up Tucker in about a week.
ALDS 2018 Game 1 Lineup: CF George Springer RF Josh Reddick 2B Jose Altuve SS Carlos Correa LF Kyle Tucker 1B Yuli Gurriel DH Marwin Gonzalez 3B Alex Bregman C Brian McCann I know Bregman will probably bat 2nd, but I like not having 4 right handed hitters to start a game.
Davis is gone Friday to make room for Gurriel. His return changes the dynamic considerably. re: Tucker, the one under-the-radar early development is Evan Gattis' slow start. He's striking out at a rate of 32%, which is considerably higher than his career rate of 21%. Early/small sample size, etc. - but the concern with Gattis has ALWAYS been his ability to handle a full load, and right now, those fears are being realized. I would guess the Astros would *prefer* to keep Marwin in the super-sub role. Fisher AND Gattis struggling would make that hard and that could possibly trigger Tucker's call-up.
I would add that Gattis struggled before as a full time DH, when we returned him to catching (part time) his offense improved. Now back as a full time DH he is struggling (yes very small sample this time) Some people struggle to just hit when not playing the field.
Gattis is struggling? He's missed a couple of homers by a few feet foul and has the highest OBP of his career. He is taking more pitches which leads to more Ks and more walks, but for the most part the walks cancel the Ks. He's not a good hitter. He hits just well enough to not get cut. While I expect hitters to hit better in the field, his great numbers hitting while being a catcher is likely mostly luck on a small sample size (~400 PA as an Astro). I would not expect Gattis to hit much better as a catcher than he is now except I expect he will get a little bit more luck regarding foul poles.
At the time of my initial post, yes. His 2-5 day yesterday boosted his numbers (OB% jumped 10%). He's still striking out 30% of the time (up ~10% from the previous two years) and is slugging less than .400. Early/small sample size, et al - I'm not necessarily worried about it. But he is off to a slow start. He's slugging .342; I mean... come on.
