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Kevin Pelton: Is Dwight Howard Still Elite?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by WinkFan, Feb 19, 2014.

  1. WinkFan

    WinkFan Contributing Member

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    Just in time for Dwight's visit to LA, ESPN comes out with a story about how Dwight is no longer elite.

    It's an insider story, but they made sure to get the bottom line in the part anyone can read.
     
  2. GoRox2013

    GoRox2013 Member

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    Definitely elite. Best center in the game
     
  3. Juxtaposed Jolt

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    There are going to be so many hateful comments on that article.

    Freaking Laker fans.
     
  4. Little General

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    They are stupid for even questioning this...
     
  5. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    I feel a bit sorry for those that pay for this "insider" nonsense. At least when the NBA squeezes some more money out of me every year for LP and NBAtv, I get to watch the games, which has value for me here in Austin. This? I've never heard a "revelation" come out of "insider" that amounted to anything. It's just another source of revenue for ESPN, in my opinion. Nothing more.
     
    #5 Deckard, Feb 19, 2014
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2014
    1 person likes this.
  6. A New Age

    A New Age Contributing Member

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    can't seem to find it, anyone have a link? thx.
     
  7. tmacfor35

    tmacfor35 Contributing Member

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    His story is from someone who just looked at his stats.

    He has been much better this year, compared to his Laker days.

    This past month he has been as dominant as he ever was in Orlando.
     
  8. WinkFan

    WinkFan Contributing Member

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  9. BamBam

    BamBam Contributing Member

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    ESPN providing us with something to post inside the locker room. You heard it hear first Dwight is going to go off on them tonight!...:cool:
    .......
    .......
    .......
     
  10. awc713

    awc713 Member

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    Article:

    Who is Dwight Howard?

    Is he an MVP candidate who can almost single-handedly anchor a top-ranked defense? Is he an aging, 6-foot-11 center with a back injury that has sapped his otherworldly athleticism?

    Or, is he something else?

    Howard's decision to leave the Los Angeles Lakers for the Houston Rockets this past summer completely shifted the balance of power in the Western Conference. But after back surgery and turning in a sub-20 player efficiency rating (PER) for the first time in six seasons, not to mention the nagging turmoil that shadowed his every movement in L.A., which guy did the Rockets get for their $88 million?

    Based on a half a season worth of data, whoever he is, he doesn't look like an elite player anymore.


    Howard on offense
    There's a strong case to be made that Howard has been the league's best offensive center this season. No starting 5-man in the league has been better in terms of both usage (.250) and efficiency (.593 true shooting percentage --TS%). In fact, none of the four centers who have been a larger part of their team's offense has better than a .548 TS%. So when the two metrics are combined based on the typical relationship between usage and efficiency, Chris Bosh and Howard are tied for the top spot among centers in adjusted TS%.

    Watch NBA Doubleheader On ESPN
    Paul George and the Indiana Pacers take on Kevin Love and the Minnesota Timberwolves while Dwight Howard and the Houston Rockets take on the Los Angeles Lakers. WatchESPN: 8:00, 10:30 p.m. ET Video

    It's surprising, in that context, that Howard's shooting from the field (58.2 percent on 2-pointers) is virtually the same as it was in a Lakers uniform last season (58.1 percent), as well as his final season in Orlando (57.9 percent). Though Howard has doubled his career high in 3-pointers (all the way to two), the difference is entirely at the charity stripe.

    After back-to-back seasons making less than half of his free throws, Howard is back up to 54.6 percent this season. Because he shoots so many free throws, that difference is enough to improve his TS% from .575 based on last year's foul shooting to his actual .593 mark.

    As good as he has looked down low at times this season, Howard remains one of the league's most inefficient post scorers. According to Synergy Sports Technology, his 0.762 points per post-up ranks 22nd among the 24 players with at least 200 post-up plays. Howard's still-poor free throw shooting brings that figure down, but during his 2010-11 campaign -- when he finished second in MVP voting -- Howard made 50.3 percent of his shots off post-ups, as compared with 45.3 percent this season.

    The good news for Houston is that Howard has improved over the course of the year. Visibly, Howard's footwork looks better than ever. Two months ago, he was averaging just 0.724 points per post-up. Since then, Howard has had stretches of dominant play reminiscent of his prime with the Orlando Magic. During five February games, all of them Rockets wins, Howard has averaged 25.8 points on 65.7 percent shooting.

    Howard on defense

    It's amazing how quickly Howard has slipped from an annual Defensive Player of the Year lock to entirely out of the discussion about the league's top defenders. It's unclear from the numbers how much that's deserved. Howard isn't blocking shots as frequently as before -- his rate is his lowest since 2005-06, when he was still playing power forward at age 20 -- but his defensive impact has generally exceeded his blocks per game.

    Tim Duncan
    D. Clarke Evans/NBAE/Getty Images
    Dwight Howard is no longer elite on the defensive end of the floor.
    Last year, Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry coined "The Dwight Effect" for opponents' unwillingness to shoot at the rim against Howard. In Goldsberry's data set, which covered games in arenas with SportVU player tracking during the 2011-12 season and part of 2012-13, opponents shot 45.7 percent within five feet of the basket when Howard was within five feet of them. This year, full SportVU data shows opponents shooting 47.4 percent in at-rim attempts with Howard in proximity of them -- solidly above average, but outside the league's top 20 big men.

    Whether it's because opponents no longer fear Howard or because of the Rockets' iffy perimeter defense, the deterrent effect Howard once had no longer exists. Opposing teams have attempted shots at the rim at a league-average rate against Houston, per NBA.com/Stats.

    Still, the Rockets' shot defense has improved dramatically. They've gone from 16th in opponents' effective field-goal percentage last season with Omer Asik in the middle to fifth so far this year. The shortcomings in Houston's ninth-ranked defense -- bottom-10 rankings in defensive rebounding and forcing turnovers -- aren't Howard's departments. In particular, don't blame him for the team's weak board work. The Rockets are average on the glass with Howard on the court, and drop to what would be the league's worst defensive rebound rate when he's on the bench.

    Together, Howard's defensive numbers suggest he's good, but no longer elite, at that end of the floor.

    Where Howard ranks

    So where does that leave Howard overall? It's tough for any center in the league to match his combination of offense and defense. While Roy Hibbert of the Indiana Pacers has supplanted Howard as the NBA's top defensive player, Hibbert is a far less efficient scorer.

    More from ESPN.com
    Dwight Howard was never a fit for Los Angeles, which is why his return to Staples Center is lacking luster, writes J.A. Adande. Story

    The same is true of other top defensive centers, while the best scorers (including DeMarcus Cousins of the Sacramento Kings) are weaker than Howard defensively. In terms of performance at both ends, Chicago Bulls center Joakim Noah might have the best case to counter Howard -- he rates slightly better by the per-minute component of my WARP system, but Howard is far better in terms of PER.

    In 2014, the best center in the NBA is no longer automatically one of the league's top 10 players. The advanced metrics tend to agree that Howard belongs in the next group of 10. He ranks 19th by both PER and Win Shares, and 14th by WARP.

    Howard has improved from last season, even as compared to his healthier second half, and now looks more like the explosive All-NBA First-Teamer he was in Orlando. But the Houston organization probably has to resign itself to the fact that at age 28 and following back surgery, Howard has probably already played his best basketball. That's not to say the Rockets should regret their pursuit of Howard in the least. Pairing him with another top-20 star in James Harden already has made the Rockets a fringe championship contender, and GM Daryl Morey has time to continue to shape the roster around its two anchors. Even a lesser Howard was well worth the effort Houston made to sign him away from the Lakers.
     
    1 person likes this.
  11. awc713

    awc713 Member

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    I'm not going to read it because the clear, unbiased answer is a resounding YES
     
  12. A New Age

    A New Age Contributing Member

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  13. SunsRocketsfan

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    To be fair and objective.. I personally never considered Dwight elite. He took the magic to the finals but let's not forget that team was no scrub team like Iverson's Sixers. That team had three other players that were all playing at All-Star levels at that point in their careers. (Rashard Lewis, Jameer Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu). With that said that was maybe his one super dominate year at a elite level. Overall I consider Dwight just a solid solid all-star. I would not use Elite super star to describe him.

    You have your super elite players in NBA history (Lebron, Durant, Kobe, Shaq, Dream, Magic, etc, etc),

    You then have your next tier which I consider just all-stars. Dwight belongs in this group (Harden, Dwight, Aldridge, Lillard, etc)
     
  14. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    Clutchfans insiders >>>>>>> ESPN Insider
     
  15. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Dwight Howard is not Hakeem Olajuwon or David Robinson or Shaquille O'Neal and never will be. He simply is not good enough offensively.

    Having said that, he is without question the best center in the NBA. People can question his heart, work ethic or just not like him. However, when you boil it down, he can cover all types of centers (unlike Noah), he is a rim protector, he is an elite rebounder, he can score in the post and cleans up inside.

    Unless Andre Drummond takes a huge step forward, there is no one else out there like that. No one..... Gasol is more skilled offensively, but he cannot guard everyone... Noah is not really a center, he gets thrown around like a rag doll against stronger centers.

    He is getting: 19/3/2/1 and is only taking 12 shots a game.

    No, you cannot ride him offensively every game like Hakeem or Robinson..... but you can is spurts and that makes him the best center in the NBA.
     
  16. Fyreball

    Fyreball Contributing Member

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    Anybody listen to Jay Mohr this morning? He just absolutely went off about how Dwight was going to destroy the Lakers tonight (he guaranteed 30 from D12 tonight), and how this was akin to the hottest girl you've ever had sex with showing up to a restaurant that you were eating at, and you being totally awkward about it. He actually said that if the Rockets were in the East, they'd be the best team in the NBA hands down. Pretty funny stuff, regardless.
     
  17. pass_to_Hakeem

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    Lol yet no mention of Pau Gasoline in that article anywhere I'm assuming? He hasn't been elite in years!!!
     
  18. Billionzz

    Billionzz Contributing Member

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    How is the best defensive player in the game not elite?
     
  19. tmacfor35

    tmacfor35 Contributing Member

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    LOL. He was the best player in the league the year he took them to the finals. I know he never did well against Yao, but that is understandable.
     
  20. cebunit

    cebunit Member

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    What dat zone defense do.
     

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