Okay that's fair. The Astros were notable the other year for having the least negative WAR in baseball. I don't necessarily think that moves the needle much for a bubble team but I see your argument.
Maybe it isn't a big deal for every bubble team, but the Mets are a Stars and Scrubs team. Their negative-value players had a combined -9.5 WAR last season. I doubt they can get a roster as deep as Astros, but I would consider getting that number down to about -4 WAR moving the needle. Davis alone can't do it. Heck, Davis last year was below replacement level. Davis, Broxton, getting Legares back, and adding some cheap relievers/depth starters might.
What about his time in Toronto? "Keith Law is an idiot." type stuff? He workded under JP Riccardi, right, and then pretty much quit? Not that I care that much, but I am curious.
He met a couple executives with the Blue Jays at a convention or some social gathering and they all talked baseball. It had nothing to do with looking for a job and after talking for a few days, he was offered a job out of left field. He took the job. Over time the Jays didn’t go to the model they said they would. He was promoted a few times but he didn’t like the direction the Jays were headed. He had family pressure and he left when ESPN offered him a job. He is one of those guys that cannot function unless everything is rock solid at home.
A.J Reed has to get moved especially, The guy is never in shape, always overweight, he isn't taking baseball as a job seriously, working on cardio. Tyler White is a great example of working on cardio, eating healthy. Hitting at a elite level during his hot streak, hitting clutch game winning home runs, against the Giants Closer who threw a 99 mph high fastball, Tyler just crushed it for a home run. Derek Fisher is really talented, he has speed and home run potential, give him a chance. Tony Kemp is needed for stolen base, contact hits.
At this point Reed's value can't get much lower. There's upside in keeping him in AAA one last year, hoping he either dominates AAA and piques another team's interest, or gets called up for a good stretch due to injury and has some big league success, raising his value. The time to trade him was 3 years ago, when he was Baseball America's #11 overall prospect. If they trade Tucker, Fisher becomes more valuable as an upside OF they can stash in AAA as injury insurance. Straw doesn't have the ceiling, Alvarez isn't ready yet, and Kemp is out of options. If they decide to keep Tucker, Fisher is probably a good bet to be shopped. Kemp is the interesting case; he may not pass through waivers, but he probably doesn't have much if any trade value. I think White and Marisnick both should be locks for the roster, since they need a good DH and another player outside of Springer who can actually play CF. So the only value Kemp has is if he is a 13th position player (meaning going with only 7 RP) who offers baserunning and LH pinch hitting, or as injury insurance for Brantley or Altuve (since LF and 2B are the only positions he can play). The best bet in dealing with Kemp may be to just hang on to him thru spring training, and if Brantley (or Altuve or White) don't get hurt, then they can shop him to another team who may have an unexpected need at 2B or LF due to a spring injury.
This is the Kemp problem to me. I think Astros think he has some value (i.e., more than Astros got for Davis). I think other teams have OFs that are better, aren't concerned with winning too much at the moment, or still think LFs have to have power. Very difficult to trade, but doubtful he makes it passed waivers. Losing him for nothing does not seem a Luhnow type of move, but other options are not typical Luhnow either.
Kemp’s value is likely higher than its ever been. With the roster crunch he doesn’t have anywhere to play that makes sense, barring our going against the norm and rostering 13 position players. I’d like to think Kemp can bring a JD Davis type return, at minimum.
If Kemp can bring back a return equal to or greater than what they got for Davis, they need to trade him NOW. Davis is a much higher ceiling player (potential 30 HR bat who can play a serviceable 3B) than Kemp, who essentially hit his ceiling in 2018 (below average defensive LF who has very little power but gets on base, rarely strikes out, and has some baserunning value).
I know this is just semantics, and I agree with your main point that Kemp probably reached his ceiling last season, what makes you think Davis has 30 HR potential? 28 players in the MLB hit 30+ HR last season. Davis, albeit in a limited sample size, hasn’t shown any consistent power. I know he showed some power in the minors but I see him more as a 20 HR type of guy at his ceiling. I still agree with the main point of your post though.
I know this is just semantics, and I agree with your main point that Kemp probably reached his ceiling last season, what makes you think Davis has 30 HR potential? Only 28 players in the MLB hit 30+ HR last season. Davis, albeit in a limited sample size, hasn’t shown any consistent power. I know he showed some power in the minors but I see him more as a 20 HR type of guy at his ceiling. I still agree with the main point of your post though.
Kemp has been the better MLB player and put up an above average hitting 2018. Despite his defensive limitations, his bat got him on the playoff roster of a stacked team. Those things are more impressive than unlikely to reach ceiling.
MLB game power is a lot more about quality of contact than raw power these days. 30HR power is a pipe dream with his current quality of contact.
Gallo hits the ball in the air so much that a certain team sometimes only plays 3 IFs against him. Davis is a worm killer.
Cmon man. Davis hit 30 homers in 529 PA in 2017 across AA, AAA, and the majors. He probably won’t ever hit more than 25 in the majors but to suggest he will always be a ground ball hitter is pretty silly.
Davis's minor league to GB/FB ratio is double that of Gallo's. In comparison to Gallo, Davis is a worm killer. Davis hit 30 homers across 3 levels because he was able to make solid contact with fastballs often enough that he still got 30 homers despite killing worms. To hit 25-30 homers in the majors, he's going to have to hit around 0.275 like he did in 2017 across 3 levels while still killing worms or he's going to have to elevate the ball often like Gallo (10-25 degree launch angle with good exit velocity). I don't think Davis can hit 0.275 in the majors. Some players are able to change batted ball profiles, but most of the time players sacrifice contact to elevate. I don't think Davis has much contact to spare. This isn't to say worm killers like Davis can't be good or hit some homers. Hosmer, a more extreme version of a worm killer, has had some really good years, though he's had some bad years as well. Hosmer has kept his K% down and made the most of it when he gets the ball elevated. I don't like to bet on guys improving contact or improving elevation. I think Davis will hit a lot better than he did last season mostly by regression and he will actually help the Mets. I don't think he will be as good as Kemp was last year in RC+ or wOBA.
