He is having his best season shooting-wise. However, his free throw rate and rebounding rate are both way down this year, 3 fewer FTs, 4 fewer rebounds per game. No dunks made so far either. All of these correlate with age and declining athletic ability. Yet, he seems to be in better physical shape than last year, a little bit faster, a little bit better at beating opponents off the dribble, a little more explosive in his first step. Any thoughts? Is this down to a change in his playing style or the different players around him? Or is he just riding a hot hand?
The decline in free throw attempts has a lot to do with the Harden Rule IMO. There have been so many times this season where he gets fouled and they call it on the floor when before this year he would’ve been at the line for 2. They’re also swallowing their whistles a lot. He is clearly a point of emphasis for the refs this year. He does seem faster and more explosive than last season. He’s shooting 76% at the rim so far which is by far the highest percentage of his career. He was blowing by Jazz defenders so easily the other night. His quickness and explosiveness where also on full display in that game against GS to open the season. With regards to his decline in rebounding, I think part of it is that Clint and Ryno have improved on that end and he’s not chasing as many as he was last year. He’ll probably get that number up to around 6 a game by the end of the season tho. my hope for Harden this season is 28 points, 6 boards, and 9-10 assists a game while averaging no more than 4.5 turnovers a game and shooting at least 37% from 3
- New rule designed for Harden is the main reason he has less FT's attempts. He is actually driving a lot more to the rim this season. - Anderson has upped his rebounding game (by an entire rebound per game actually) and same has Capela (over 2 per game!) - Dunking is exciting for fans, but overrated as a shot. 2 points is 2 points and a layup is way more energy conservative than a dunk Lets be honest here, Harden baits for fouls far more often than most stars. It's a big reason why so many dislike him despite him being one of the most brilliant offensive talents this league has ever seen. This year, he seems more intent on finishing plays rather than getting that foul, which is great IMO.
I think what's going on is: They are finally reffing regular season games like playoff games in terms of what constitutes a foul on the drive. Harden can go to the line 10 times a game, but it would require a dramatic increase in injury risk to achieve it. Rockets decided we should learn how to win without risking Harden's health for regular season wins. Now that there is consistency in refereeing, Harden can pick and choose which games he's going to put an increased effort into getting to the line, and that will include the playoffs. Which, if true, is a pretty good way to manage Harden. His 3pt stroke is looking better than ever so I think they are focusing on improving his shooting and once Paul comes back we'll see if he can improve at catching and shooting.
DMA says tossing Paul into the lineup is like throwing a big rock into a pond. D'Antoni said. "We've got a new team tomorrow. When you put that big of a rock into a pond, there's big waves." Good thing Harden can bounce, now.
