Analytics --Proof James does not have a turnover problem and only haters or the uninformed think so. No need for that talking to by MDA. Hope this has not been posted before. https://www.fanragsports.com/nba/james-harden-russell-westbrook-dont-turnover-problem/
Well, I'm either a hater or uninformed, then. I'm going to check out the article and let you know what I think. (Disclaimer: Harden was better in February than he was in January on this.)
It is not a problem, but he can certainly get better at protecting the ball - some of his turnovers are super sloppy and easily correctable. DD
With his usage they are going to be high. It is all about team turnovers. If we can keep it under 10 a day we are looking good.
I appreciate what the analysis presents. But isn't the point to compare JH and RW to other PGs, not the entire league, and certainly not to Bigs. But then again, from a offensive system standpoint, the coach would be interested in overall stats vs something out of his control like "JH doesn't protect the ball like Stockton and Paul did." In other words, Stockton and Paul aren't walking through that door.
This entire article is based around the assertion that turnovers are OK if volume is high. I agree. But what I really wish he'd done is broken it down by game flow, which would've addressed the arguments I've presented more directly. Are there any aberrations by quarter? Or by point differential? (ie does he get more casual in a blowout, or does he make costly mistakes in close games?) He starts the article trying to prime the reader that turnovers don't matter by saying "turnovers can also include charges, double dribbles, etc" but doesn't substantiate that with numbers, instead just presenting charts that do indeed show a very strong correlation between volume and turnovers, which confirm his assertion but don't necessarily cover new ground. Here are some of my issues: what about when we see Harden toss casual passes at center-court to the wings that get picked off once or twice a game and turn into direct layups? Are those no longer annoying, or worthy of discussion? The writer would dismiss those by saying "turnovers only result in about 1 point per turnover." Should we consider all turnovers equal, then? What about when Harden gets poked from behind at the top of the key because he's trotting and surveying and not tracking the defensive players in transition? Some of those are inevitable, but can we not reduce them? What do turnovers look like in a 95-97 game with 5 minutes left, versus a 100-82 game with 5 minutes left? Are they equal in value? Volume is a good excuse on a macro level, but on any specific play that turnover can still hurt. I think he did a great job presenting his case to the average NBA fan who just blames those guys for turnovers. But for a hardcore fan who is sick of specific tendencies, and has been sparring about it on a message board with other hardcore fans, it's not super insightful. I'm not a Harden "hater". In fact, I've been OK with his February play (except shooting)... but this writer tries to be 100% definitive. I don't think so - and I know Westbrook does all kinds of boneheaded things. Allen Iverson was once a super high volume dribbler, scoring champ, MVP.... where are his rings? I'm not really arguing with anyone on Clutchfans... just don't think this is an open and shut case.
He probably can cut those half court outlet passes. Those are just dangerous passes. Unless someone is wide open ahead, we should be very careful with it.
I think it was in that SI cover article, but MDA said many of those forced passes by Harden, the ones we question the most, come because he's hyper-aware of who's had fewer touches and wants to keep everyone happy. I have no data to prove or disprove that, but he does make some of those WTF passes every game.
I would like to know the rate of success on those forced long passes. Rockets on average score 1.15 points per possession. Let's say if those forced long TD passes are completed, they score about 2 points per possession (Rough estimate. They often lead to wide open lay ups or 3's so averaging out to about 2 points seem right considering the extra points from 3). That means James has to convert better than 1.15/2 (or 57.5%) of those passes for it to be an above average play. I have no idea what his conversion rate is but just by observation he converts those passes more often that not, so I would guess those passes are above average plays and James should take that chance every time.
Just some reference here: Team Offensive Rating 115.6 86-87 Lakers 115.5 91-92 Bulls 115.2 95-96 Bulls 115.0 16-17 Rockets 114.6 90-91 Bulls 114.4 96-97 Bulls 114.1 84-85 Lakers 112.9 92-93 Bulls 111.8 85-86 Celtics 111.6 14-15 Warriors Except the Rockets, every team on that list won a ring and is considered an all time great team. Seems silly to me that we talking about turnovers when we have one of the greatest offenses of all time.
How accurate is your claim of turning itover for a direct layup once or twice a game from center court passes? Sounds a lot like the argument in the past about Harden ALWAYS(many times a game) holding the ball to the very last second and firing a pass to a shooter and THAT was the reason we couldn't hit 3s. Reality is neither "problem" happened or happens nearly as often as some may think and are likely successfully executed more often than some think.
Like many have said, i don't see it as a problem but it's something he can improve on. If he cuts those full court passes he'll for sure cut his turnovers a game by 2 or 3. Those passes work like 20% of the time. Only player i've seen in my life make those passes regularly is LBJ.
Until one of us has the time to compile video of every game I guess we can't definitively answer that. But we can still enjoy it when it happens!
I will agree both with the general premise of the link AND reasonable critiques of some of the more glaring turnovers. Turnovers are obviously the hole in Hardens otherwise brilliant armor, there is no other hole. What I won't agree with is the negative Nancy's constantly focusing on this as what's stopping them from winning. It isn't. And sure, the unforced passes that trickle around occasionally are frustrating at times but to harp on them as if he isn't leading this team above almost all others is ridiculous and needs to stop. We are lucky to have this player, this team and the fun, exciting, WINNING basketball we are witnessing. It's way past time to act like it too. If you're still viewing the rockets through a 2015-16 lens it's time to wipe the boogers off and see clearly.
Presenting... "Justtxyank reads Glynch's posts...a play by play featuring gifs!" I opened the GARM and saw this thread title: and I was like... Then I read the first post... and I was like... Then I saw there was a link to an article... And I was like... But I thought, "Hey, if the OP posted it, maybe I should read it..." So then I read it. I wanted THIS to be my reaction: but if I'm being perfectly honest... I'm still saying this: I thought to myself, next time don't bother reading the article. But, hey at least it's Friday and that means MEATLOAF TONIGHT!!
