ISOLATION SCORING, Statistical analysis of LIN vs HARDEN and the top 50 scorers ISO rankings

While I don't want this to turn into a Lin thing (however I'm sure it probably will), Lin's change of role seems to have increased his efficiency markedly as well

 

Great work. Nice stats!

 

Thanks for posting mate

 

Those 2 disasters against Utah and Phoenix were both chalked up to Parsons, and rightfully so. But I think it was really the combo of Lin and Parsons missing that caused it.

The Rockets seem to have 3 players who appear to be able to "make things happen" on a fairly regular basis, Lin,Parsons, and Harden. Dwight Howard has been a bit of an enigma, he has shown signs of dominance, but more often than not he has been Tyson Chandler. Hopefully his recent trend will stick, and it will be 4 go to options, but back to my original point.

Lin isn't nearly as expendable as people make him out to be. When Parsons got hurt it left 1 player to try and create everything. Lin hasn't really got back into the flow yet, but I think he is a very important piece to what the Rockets can do this year. Games won't always be up and down, you will often have to create something from nothing, and guys that can do that well are harder to come by than people seem to think.

 

I think it's a case of contingencies, we need at least 2 of the 3, Harden is far and away the most consistent (and paid for it), but the other 2, we need at least 1 to show up. Occasionally all 3 turn up and we kill all comers.

For example against Portland, where Parsons back flat tyred him half a dozen and he just looked out of sorts, and Lin being in recovery/return mode, our offense looked flat even with both of them.

 

This really is the only reason for why Lin comes off the bench. Most teams his scoring would be needed. Here, if he plays with Harden, they are both likely worst off.

 

Naturally, the more somebody does something, the less of a percentage it will become. AKA It's no surprise Lin's is high. He hardly does anything, and when he has he has been on fire.

Secondly, the Lin fans like to claim this as isolation, but ISO is when the team clears away a large portion of the court for you. This is fairly rare. What they mean to say is when he goes 1 on 1 instead of playing a team game.

Not sure where you get ISO stats from for this reason?

 

This is too early to be doing statistical analysis.

I remember looking at Harden's synergy just last week and the numbers were significantly different than what they are now.

It's going to jump around a lot this early on.

 

A great post Aus! You should look into Tableau software.

But what is the impact of guard isolation points on the game? Why are they so vitally important? How is Hardens isolation different from Parsons? If you like I will answer those questions. But I am confident you can do a fine job.

I watched some of the CLE versus MIA game last night and it was obvious that the Cavs were running R&R 4 out 1 in. They looked completely different than the Rockets.

 

It is the start of the statistical analysis season for starters, but not for second team players.

 

I don't expect neither Lin nor Harden will maintain isolation efficient of 0.97 ppp.

- Lin had lost half a step from preseason. He doesn't get by his defenders as easily as before. It started before he was injured.

- Harden hadn't really played many of his biggest adversaries yet. Iguodala, T Allen, Sefolosha, and Tucker will all bring down his efficiency.

When Harden was playing behind Durant and WB 2011-12, he had the highest isolation efficiency in the league at 1.0 ppp, still impressive as a third banana. As #1 option, his isolation efficiency was down last season and understandably so when he faced the best perimeter defenders in the league.

 

Great post... Players who can isolate are important because you can't win a championship without them..

 

Tableau is the finest data presentation software available. Plus it can be used for free. I looked into buying it because I did not like some of the annoying "freeware" aspects, but they wanted thousands of US dollars. It has a complexity level on the level of Excel, so it can be learned in relatively short order.

So why is Harden (and Lin) so effective when in isolation? Why does it present such a problem for defenses? I believe it has to do with their ability to break down the defense off the dribble. Guards are incredibly fast in the NBA. They cannot be broken down by most NBA players. Harden and Lin can and do break them down. Parsons cannot. Therefore you see defenses flex to guard Harden and Lin. They shade off of their defensive assignments towards Houston's two great guards. This opens up for their teammates good looks from the arc and cuts to the basket.

I thought, watching 10 minutes of the Cavs last night, that it was obvious that Irving was not causing the Heats defense to flex towards him. Every defender stood glued to their man. I downgraded my opinion of Irving immediately.

 

That's intereting, thanks for the info.

But if you play ball and your coach asks for ISO, make sure you get well clear of your go-to guy.

 

Harden (and Lin) can consistently create their own shot. Parsons cannot. Simple as that.. But difference between Harden and Lin is that Harden commands double teams and commands the defense to rotate towards him _ Lin, not so much...