Ignoring midrange will kill us

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by OTMax, Oct 11, 2017.

  1. felixng2012

    felixng2012 Member

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    True I think CP3 will diversify the offense this season and yes he should keep spamming his mid ranged j because he is arguably the best mid range shooter in the nba atm.

    Its just preseason so I wouldn't be worried yet. I think the Rockets will incorporate some mid range shooting especially with CP3 who shoots like 50% or something crazy from mid ranged.
     
  2. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    This statement is speculation on why he's shot this many mid range and this many 3s.

    My speculation is he's smart and takes what the defense gives him. Since all defenses, especially the good ones, protect the rim and 3 and leave the midrange, is why he has had such a high amount.

    Analysis on this has to do with the fact that, in this system with so much space he isn't used to, he hasn't HAD to take a bunch of mid range shots.

    He's able to get to the rim much more frequently, and playing next to harden he is able to spot up for open looks at 3.

    I have the "utmost" confidence that given the opportunity he will take the wide open mid range if that's what the defense gives him. But he will have more looks at the rim and at the 3, which in my estimation means his shots per game will be much more even, about 7 and 7

    Edit: and while what you say about small amount of 3pt attempts is why his percentage is higher is relatively true, I did this as a basic comparison. His .504 2pt% includes layups and inside the paint shots, that aren't considered mid range, referencing this likely means his actual "mid range" %s is likely closer to 45%
     
    #102 BigMaloe, Oct 12, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2017
  3. REEKO_HTOWN

    REEKO_HTOWN Contributing Member

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    we need a wing that can slash and pass. Really sucks we couldn't get Iggy. He would have replaced Ariza so well. We really need better cutting and crisper passers.

    Maybe we go after Evan Turner (I know his contracts sucks) for Ryno. We have to have better passing at the 3 or 4.
     
  4. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    Morey's math states why pull-up for an open 2 when you can drive all the way to the basket for a foul, layup or oop, if all the 3s are being guarded, and you have Capela freezing the lone man back with the driver in a 2 on 1 attack after the pick. Harden is the best player in the league at that, and Paul is great too. Spacing.

    That said, I agree, we want Harden to take less contested 3s, but no one else really does except when EGo is on fire. I think there is too much complaining about missing open 3s from others, which you're allowed to complain about. But they are not contested Ike your simple mah says they are. And we brought Paul into the picture to get Harden more open looks.
     
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  5. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    turner would be a terrible fit on this team man. a wing player who can't shoot and is inefficient
     
  6. CDrex

    CDrex Contributing Member

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    Statistically, an average shot by a mediocre three-point shooter (say, Ariza at 34%) still beats the hell out of a good look from a good mid-range shooter (say, Kawhi at 46%). 34x3 >> 46x2. The Rockets should not gameplan to deliberately shoot more 2s.

    What the Rockets get wrong is not that they prioritize threes and spurn 18-footers generally, but that they don't adjust to the math when it changes. You can't expect Ariza to still shoot 34% when the Spurs are camping out in his face, and you know that Harden can probably shoot 50% from the elbows if the opponent is only covering the rim and arc. In that case, the math says that you change your plan in response to the defense, and the Rockets have not shown themselves to be that clever yet. More veteran experience, and the coaching staff learning from past mistakes may improve that - we'll see if either is the case pretty soon.
     
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  7. REEKO_HTOWN

    REEKO_HTOWN Contributing Member

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    It's a gamble but I can't think of another player we could unload Anderson for.

    What blows my mind is that I haven't seen any Harden, CP3 pick and rolls. It's so obvious and they don't use it. Harden needs to let Paul run the offense.

    It's so stupid sticking Chris ****ing Paul in the corner 3 waiting to catch a last second pass from Harden after Harden probes 2 PNRs.
     
  8. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    if its not a clear upgrade theres no reason to unload him. hes a huge piece in this rockets identity
     
  9. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    GM 1 hou 108 - 87 okc

    GM 2 hou 115 - 111 okc

    GM 3 hou 113 - 115 okc

    GM 4 hou 113 - 109 okc

    GM 5 hou 105 - 99 okc

    110.8 ppg on average


    Houston fans are extremely spoiled and ungrateful when it comes to how amazing our offense is. Even when we "look" like shiit we average an incredibly high amount.
     
  10. REEKO_HTOWN

    REEKO_HTOWN Contributing Member

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    What identity? Anderson is a glorified decoy that gets maybe 8 points a game and can't rebound of defend? That's a bad identity.
     
  11. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    what identity? seriously. the rockets have a system and ryno is very much part of that. if this identity is so bad then i guess last season was a complete fluke.
     
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  12. ChenZhen

    ChenZhen Contributing Member

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    Having the mid range game is definitely very important to counter what the elite defense will give you. James Harden melted mentally last year because he didn't apply his mid range game to the spurs D in the playoffs. The last two playoff games they figured us out. How? By solving Harden's pick and roll. They simply sagged back after you set a pick and wait for Harden to do just 1 of 2 things: 1. attack the Rim (Capela's Defender is waiting for him), 2. Pass off the Lob to the Picker (Harden's defender recovers from the pick to intercepts the pass to Capela). They were also not collapsing and playing the passing lanes on the 3 point shooters and running at them hard. To counter, if harden simply pulls up after the pick, he will get a wide open mid range shot every time. Caplea also doesn't have to roll to the rim for a dunk every time. He can just pop to the baseline and hit the wide open 6-8 foot jump shot. We should not be a 3 trick pony 100 percent of the time (FT, 3PT, Layups). We should adjust accordingly and take what the defense gives you sometimes.
     
  13. mfastx

    mfastx Member

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    That's kind of exactly my point though. I've noticed him passing up several open mid range shots already. If he keeps taking what the defense gives him then that's exactly what I want. The reason some of us are clamoring for mid range shots is because we absolutely refused to take them in the playoffs last year and our offense sputtered partly because of that. I think his midrange is like 48%.

    Harden can hit them too but the Spurs didn't respect his ability to hit them last year. And for some reason he kept driving into the paint and getting swatted instead of pulling up from midrange.

    And to answer your question, if Anderson stopped shooting 3s over the course of a season then of course they'd stop closing out. Hopefully CP3 will take open midrange shots when the defense gives it to him because he's damn good at it. He hasn't done it so far which is mildly concerning.
     
  14. Rox11

    Rox11 Member

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    You mean like when the spurs dared us to shoot them? A 2 bill $ team can’t notice that..
     
  15. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    Yeah , but he isn't "passing up" open mid range shots. He's finding himself in a position where, while yes the mid range is open, so is the path to rim and a possible oop if the defender crashes him.

    He's smart enough to know that a layup or an alley oop is much more efficient than that mid range. Even if it's defended perfectly, or illegally like pau camping in the key, he can always dish it out to an open shooter or restart at worse.

    So instead of shooting his very good mid range he's been taking it to the rim instead.
     
  16. REEKO_HTOWN

    REEKO_HTOWN Contributing Member

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    Last regular season right? How about the playoffs?

    I don’t want this team to be a regular season team!!! Do you?
     
  17. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    Absolute nonsense.

    Trying to pin a series loss on a lack of respect of the midrange game is just silliness.

    The Rockets tagged 120+ on the best defense in the league last year in the playoffs twice. That is the whole point of risk variance.

    When you try and play the same style as a team which has more talent than you, its not going to work.

    No they absolutely would not. A defender is going to be pinned onto Anderson at the three point line at all times.

    What you people convince yourself of is ridiculous.
     
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  18. OTMax

    OTMax Member

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    It baffles me people actually buy into these percentages from 3 over a higher percentage from 2 because it amounts a statistical 1. .... per shot on average or whatever formula you want to use.

    An open midrange shot is an open shot. An open three is an open three. If it’s open, there’s absolutely no reason to pass it up unless a person is hot or just more open. In the case of both you can still argue on a case to case basis, but in the end it’s simple: take the open shot and do not ‘force’ a three just because of some strategy or stat.

    Hell if you have space between the 3pt line and the paint, depending on the defense (who, what set, how many) and game situation I’d rather they go inside more than pass it out. We have a threes and layups strategy, but more often than not it’s a three than a layup attempt. With CP3 and Harden in particular, you cannot pass up opportunities like they’re getting.
     
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  19. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    what about the playoffs. they beat okc 4-1. ran into the spurs team and had an opportunity to come out 3-2 in game 5 but just couldnt close it out. i dont see any point worth noting here.
     
  20. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    You don't want them to be historically great in the regular season like last year?

    You'll take some more low efficiency shots -have them just be merely above average, because this = playoff success
     
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