Ignoring midrange will kill us

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by OTMax, Oct 11, 2017.

  1. dharocks

    dharocks Contributing Member

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    This place is so goddamn predictable.
     
  2. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    It's more than that ... I don't like there is a qualifier .

    If you have an open shot take it .... Unless you are a non-shooter ( like Clint )

    I can't think of a guard or forward on our team that shouldn't take an open 18 footer .

    If you pass up an Open shot in the NBA the chance you get another one plummets .

    Now , due to our design we probably won't have players in position where they are open for a midrange shot , but when those scenarios happen the shot needs to be taken .
     
  3. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    If a Hall of Fame Pure PG like Paul lets a coach (much less a GM) mess with his head enough to make a less effective play, then either he isn't a Hall of Fame PG to allow himself to be brainwashed into making the wrong plays, or the fan analysis of the proper play is wrong.

    So, what's your point. None of those are better shots than Harden driving. Those guys are shooting those, because they can't drive nearly as well as Harden, and convert or get to the line.
     
  4. rocketsballin

    rocketsballin Member

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    has it worked for us though? they have 2 of the best 3pt shooters in history, followed by durant.

    btw you guys should know klay, one of the best shooters of all time, took over 300 mid range shots last season http://nbasavant.com/player.php?player_id=202691

    durant, a top 3 player, took over 200 mid range shots http://nbasavant.com/player.php?player_id=201142

    curry, agreed as the best shooter of all time, not many but took http://nbasavant.com/player.php?player_id=201939

    basically a team thats several levels more equipped to run the 3pt heavy offense STILL utilized the mid range game. WHY CANT WE DO THE SAME?

    kawhi http://nbasavant.com/player.php?player_id=202695
    kyrie http://nbasavant.com/player.php?player_id=202681
    damian http://nbasavant.com/player.php?player_id=202681
    lebron, russel, hayward shot udner 40 from all mid range shots but still took a lot

    the bets scorers aren't completely abandoning the mid range game. this midrange nonsenese with this team needs to stop. they dont need to abandong their gameplan, just incorporate a mid range game, especially when the threes arent falling.
     
  5. brewer's goat

    brewer's goat Member

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    Look, you can only afford to be an one-trick pony only if you are literally near unstoppable at that one single thing. Regardless of what people's general opinion is on our offense, it's clear that we are not at that level.

    If you are merely good at something, but not really great (like our three point shooting), there is an urgent need to mix things up and be somewhat unpredictable. Randomness and creativity has always been the best secret weapon for the underdogs because you are not going to beat the giants at their own game, playing by simple, predictable rules. In evolutionary terms, certain kind of 'weirdness' brings about distinct survival advantage, and it's an apt metaphor to be extended to the realm of basketball as well.

    You take mid-range shots not because it's inherently more valuable than a three-point shot. You take them to stir things up at the macro level. Sometimes one clean shot can change the whole momentum of the game. It's simple as that.

    This team is going nowhere with this kind of approach. Sure, regular season will be fine, only to end with another bitter playoff run.
     
    #25 brewer's goat, Oct 11, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2017
  6. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    What's your point?

    Harden shot over 40% from midrange last season (42.8%) on almost 150 shots.

    Are you pointing out the rhetoric that 'Harden doesn't take many midrange shots' is false, and that the logic of 'don't take midrange shots because they are low %' is true? It seems that way. You're pointing out a bunch of players who shoot badly from midrange, and Harden shoots higher % on lower volume - ie, is selective.
     
  7. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    Because we are stuck in a generation that has a team full of elite talent and all time shooters we shouldn't?

    Why do all the best offenses shoot a high amount of 3s? Why are all the best defenses predicated on stopping the 3?

    We absolutely have no shot at being able to shoot and make as many 3s as efficiently as golden state. They have all timers and all time efficiency.

    The exact fact that they ahoot so many mid range is why we are able to close the gap offensively with significantly less talent.

    Hate the system all you flipping want, but it is proven extremely successful and has helped us close the gap albeit not a lot.

    If gsw played like us with their talent they would be even better, which is damn scary.

    I hope they keep shooting mid range even more this year to help us close the gap more so.

    We don't utilize the mid range because IT ISNT AS ADVANTAGEOUS
     
  8. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    Both sides are right here . The question is finding an optimal balance , and the rockets haven't (in my opinion ) found that point .

    Our shot selection is not perfect . That's on the players , and it's on the coaches and philosophy .

    The numbers don't lie , but how do you value variance ?

    Last play of the game , tie game ... Let's say you have two choices . James can take a off the dribble 3 at 35 percent or a step back 2 at 50 percent .

    The points per possession of the 3 is higher ... Taking the two is obviously the better choice .

    Situations matter , stringing runs together matter , hot and cold streaks happen .

    An issue that no one brings up is practice and comfort . In the 14-15 season James won us a lot of games taking those Iso 2's or step backs coming off screens. He practiced those moves , honed them , and kept them reliable .

    There is limited time to work on your game. If James is told , hey if you get your three percentage to x , over the long run its a more efficient shot ... Which shot does he focus on practicing ?

    Now , revisit the same scenario but let's change the percentages to reflect practice .

    The 3 at 37 percent
    Or the 2 at 45

    Even though you've increased the long run PPP , both options are worse for the given scenario ... Now you have a 45 percent chance of winning the game vs a 50 .

    Yes this is a stylized example ... It's also probably close to reality .

    The human element of the game is incredibly important and quantitative methods can't measure a lot of things.
     
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  9. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    #2 offense last year and a top 10 offense ALL TIME!!!

    Stupid 1 trick pony offense won't get us no where. We need more mid range so we can be less explosive!!!
     
  10. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    I can't believe Paul didn't shoot this midrange. It doesn't matter that a great defender like Gasol was frozen to contest a drive for fear of the lob to Capela, Paul should have shot that midrange just to make CFnet happy.

     
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  11. brewer's goat

    brewer's goat Member

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    2nd round exit in the playoffs, with one of the worst performances by a 'superstar' in decades. Great counter-example.
     
  12. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    Straw man much?

    That has literally nothing to do with our shot selection as an offense nor our elite top 10 offense of all time.

    Horrible counter-example.
     
  13. brewer's goat

    brewer's goat Member

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    couldn't have said it better
     
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  14. brewer's goat

    brewer's goat Member

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    that elite top 10 offense couldn't even get past the 2nd round in the playoffs; in fact our offense kinda struggled against OKC too. So whatever nitpicked metric you're using, it's meaningless as far as I'm concerned because I want this team to succeed in the playoffs, not freakin' regular season.
     
    #34 brewer's goat, Oct 11, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2017
  15. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    Lol @heypartner that's just mean . Neither side's argument is as simple as its being portrayed .

    No one is the "midrange" camp wants Paul to take a midrange shot over getting to the rim for a layup . The threat of Paul taking the midrange shot is what allowed him to get to the basket.

    What if the defender played him differently and stayed back ? Would you have advocated for a midrange then ? Hell , no one else was near him ... He probably could've gotten all the way back to he three point line.

    Personally , I love threes . But I don't love the shot selection . I think in the long-run , we are at an efficient point ... OBVIOUSLY , we had the # 2 offense all time ?

    I don't like how our offense performs when the game collapses . We have a lot of variance and sometimes it bites us .

    Look , GS and the numbers bear clear evidence in one direction .

    But I'll ask everyone this . Is POP the best coach in the NBA ? The Spurs last year ranked 25th in 3PA and had a top 10 offense.

    I'll just say you can evaluate an offense on more than just Offensive rating ( which is points per 100 positions right ?) there are a lot of characteristics that are overlooked.
     
  16. brewer's goat

    brewer's goat Member

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    https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2017.html

    2nd best offensive team during the regular season became 7th best offensive team (out of 16 teams total) in the playoffs last season. In fact, Memphis had very similar ORtg in the playoffs as us, with of course much better defense. Historically great offense? :)
     
  17. topfive

    topfive Contributing Member

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    Technically, you're right. But...

    2015-2016: 31.6 3PT attempts per game
    2016-2017: 31.2 3PT attempts per game

    It's not exactly like they've become the '60s Celtics.
     
  18. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    ?? Look at the vid again. Gasol *did* stay back. He stayed back for fear of Capela getting under the rim.

    Sure this is just one vid, but it's rich and interesting to the discussion. My main point is in the last paragraph

    If you're talking about Green coming from the left off of Anderson, then I contend Paul was looking way past him, and new Gasol was frozen, so just had to also freeze Green from following him to the rim, ie. he was making Green do what he wanted, not the other way around. Paul fully intended to take it all the way or oop it to Capela.

    If Paul wanted that Midrange, Green wasn't going to stop it by coming off Anderson that tentatively and slow. And if you say Green was there and forced Paul from shooting the midrange, then well, show me these open midranges that Paul passed up this game vs making the better play.

    bottomline: Keep an open mind. This is a HOF Pure PG who has never played in a system with this much space. He very well might be looking past his typical shots, because he sees something better. Sure, he might be looking off his midrange in preseason to explore the new system, and might adjust back to norm more later, but I trust him to make the right decision.
     
  19. felixng2012

    felixng2012 Member

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    Spurs were the best defensive team in the league you can't compare playoffs with RS because in RS you can face bad or good defensive teams.
     
  20. rocketsballin

    rocketsballin Member

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    my point is obvious troll. we cant expect to beat gsw if we completely abandon the midrange game.
     
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