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If we're patient, it's possible that Morey can force a Love or LMA trade next offseason

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by meh, Jul 8, 2013.

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  1. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    Slow day at work, so I did some digging on the Rockets ability to get that 3rd star.

    As we all know, both Kevin Love and LaMarcus Aldridge have been grumbling about their current teams. However, it's also true that neither team wants to part with them for less than a King's ransom.

    But by next offseason, Morey may create a situation that forces either team's hand. Because at that time, both LMA and Love will be 1 year away from FA in 2015. And in 2015 offseason, this will be the Rockets roster.

    Dwight Howard ~$22.4mil(based on $20.51 starting salary next season and 4.5% annual raises for 2 years)
    James Harden ~$16mil(his salary is partially tied to the salary cap number, so this a rough estimate)
    Chandler Parsons ~$2.5mil cap hold
    Terrence Jones $2.5mil(not guaranteed)
    Motiejunas $2.3mil(not guaranteed)
    Patrick Beverley ~$2.5mil cap hold(not guaranteed)
    2014 1st round pick ~$1.5mil(perhaps less, guaranteed if kept)

    Assuming the Rockets renounce everyone except Parsons, Harden, and Howard, that’s ~$41mil + ~$5mil in cap holds, or $46mil total. A 1st round pick would put that number up to $47mil. And any of the typical Morey 800K type signings would increase that number slightly. The NBA salary cap in 2014 will be $62mil. Assume that number increases to $63mil in 2015, the Rockets would have as much as possibly $16mil in capspace. Both Love and Aldridge would command $16.7mil max money that year.

    However, the key isn't being able to sign either in 2015, but to threaten that possibility.

    Obviously, to sign Love/LMA outright would truly strip every role player on our team. And I'm certainly no one wants that if at all possible. Here's where a trade comes in to make it win-win for all parties. Imagine Aldridge next offseason says he plans to sign with the Rockets in 2015, even with a discount because he simply wants to win. Then his trade value goes down dramatically, for many other teams can't offer Howard+Harden. And Portland might be forced to entertain a possible trade of something like Asik+DMo or Jones+Cannan+2 1st round picks. Or risk losing him for nothing.

    So if Morey plays his cards right, it is entirely possible, perhaps even reasonable, that the Rockets can add a 3rd star player next season.

    Side Note: Another perhaps interesting 2015 FA may be Rajon Rondo, who may get traded next season while the Celtics rebuild. I could care less about the rest of the FAs, which are either centers(Gasol, Hibbert, Lopez) or meh(Dragic, Jeff Green, Eric Gordon, etc.)
     
    #1 meh, Jul 8, 2013
  2. bobmarley

    bobmarley Contributing Member

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    Rondo or Love
     
    #2 bobmarley, Jul 8, 2013
  3. Spiegel

    Spiegel Member

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    That's the beauty of having two top 10 players right now. Most allstars or superstars will want to join the party.They can for example someone like LMA can tell the Blazers look, i'm not coming back and want to go to Houston. Workout a deaL SO YOU DONT LOSE ME FOR NOTHING OR I'LL WALK FOR FREE AT SEASONS END. Tmac did the samething to the Magic.
     
    #3 Spiegel, Jul 8, 2013
  4. shastarocket

    shastarocket Contributing Member

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    Honestly, I am just thrilled that I can trust Morey not to make a monumental mistake such as Hedo for 52 mill for 5 yrs or trade for Gilbert Arenas' ludicrous contract.
     
    #4 shastarocket, Jul 8, 2013
  5. Jontro

    Jontro Member

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    Will Howard + Harden and another semi-star be enough pull for veterans to join us for cheap like LerBon n co did?
     
    #5 Jontro, Jul 8, 2013
  6. hizzobbes

    hizzobbes Member

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    Give me Love.
     
    #6 hizzobbes, Jul 8, 2013
  7. raskol

    raskol Contributing Member

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    If LMA can come here, everyone is expendable except James and Dwight. Get er done Morey!!
     
    #7 raskol, Jul 8, 2013
  8. MrButtocks

    MrButtocks Contributing Member

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    Hell, I think we're almost at that point already.
     
    #8 MrButtocks, Jul 8, 2013
  9. Ultimateian

    Ultimateian Member

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    Love can hit the 2 when the corner 3 is open.
     
    #9 Ultimateian, Jul 8, 2013
  10. Nubmonger

    Nubmonger Member

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    Are you saying the 2015 offseason (i.e., after the 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 seasons) or next year? Because you've said both in your post, and they are very different time periods. In one, both Asik and Lin are still on the books, while in the other, they are free agents.

    If you mean the actual 2015 offseason, then that's a long time in basketball years. Imagine two years ago from today, would you have thought that this team would be comprised of any of the starters that are on the roster today? It's hard to say what the actual situation will be.

    Keep in mind that all of the players mentioned, while young, could turn out to have career-ruining injuries or simply implode in terms of performance, at which point you are looking at replacing a superstar rather than adding to an already-stacked team.
     
    #10 Nubmonger, Jul 8, 2013
  11. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

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    I was going to write something about this, but I guess you beat me to it, you missed the other half of the equation, but I'll get to that last.

    A few things meh, Harden's is about 15.7, Howard's is 22.4 yes.

    Parsons cap hold is a little over 1.7m, Beverley's is his qualifying offer, 1.2m, also Houston will never acquire Rondo, never ever (Doc went so far to call people who'd want that idiots).

    The other side of the equation of why we're such a threat is we have the best assets of any contender, at least in the sense of tradeable assets, every contender has their untouchables, so take them out and what do teams have? Take Noah and Rose out of the Chicago pool and you have? Take Griffin and Paul out of the Clippers, what's there? Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka out of OKC and?

    Just the threat of signing with us isn't enough, they could still be traded to Chicago, Clippers, etc but none of those teams have as much to offer a rebuilding team as we do, especially now the Clippers have no Bledsoe. They're all completely drained of young assets and/or draft picks, whereas we have them all, and no team with more young assets than us is really going to risk trading for them except maybe Cleveland (but unless Lebron goes home, trading them to Cleveland is likely to piss them and by proxy their agent off).

    We have them hedged on talent, we have them hedged on salary space and we have them hedged on assets, and that's why Asik is going nowhere til they blink.

    Addendum of note : I'd also suggest that what will happen next year is Garcia will opt out, sign a $5m mle early bird deal with team option after year 1, that will be voided to sign him to another minimum deal in 2015-16, if he suffers a career ending injury this year he opts in and gets the extra $1.3m, so after 3 years he ends up getting $2.5m a year without ever being a cap hit of note (see how this works?)
     
    #11 Aleron, Jul 8, 2013
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2013
    1 person likes this.
  12. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

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    The recruiter will not be traded
     
    #12 Aleron, Jul 8, 2013
  13. Fantasma Negro

    Fantasma Negro Member

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    Why wait, he should go for it now. Love would fit perfectly on this team. He can stretch the floor and let Dwight hold down the paint and then crash the boards on defense. Damn that would be awesome
     
    #13 Fantasma Negro, Jul 8, 2013
  14. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Member

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    The only problem with waiting 'till next season, is that is what Dallas had to offer. We said we could get a third star now.
     
    #14 thunderkyss, Jul 8, 2013
  15. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

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    No we didn't
     
    #15 Aleron, Jul 8, 2013
  16. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    I guess great minds, or at least die-hard Rockets fan minds, think alike. :)

    My numbers I went with my interpretation of Larry Coon's FAQ, which stated that rookie contracts at less than league average counts 250% of the previous salary for Parsons. I thought Beverley would be the same, but not entirely sure now. But if you're right, the Rockets are certainly more likely to fit small contracts within potential Love/LMA contract.

    Great point. I inherently felt this way, as in I looked around the league and couldn't really find any more perfect landing spot for either player. But this is definitely very note-worthy. It's difficult for teams to find a contender that also has a lot of worthy assets for a rebuilding team.

    Obviously, the best case scenario is to simply make the trade so that the MLE will be used properly. But certainly, if it comes down to actually signing one as a FA, we can do this.
     
    #16 meh, Jul 8, 2013
  17. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    Because both the Wolves and the Blazers are looking to make a playoff push this season. It would make no sense for either to trade their best player to us pennies on the dollar.

    The earliest possible time for a trade like this is this deadline. It would involve either team being disappointing and likely not making the playoffs yet on pace to land a 11~12ish pick. At which time, a package of young players + picks + opportunity to tank may be appealing. If they don't want Asik, surely Asik can be flipped for more assets. If they're too good, they might just go for the playoffs. If they're horrible, they may try to get Wiggins while retaining their current stars.
     
    #17 meh, Jul 8, 2013
  18. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

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    I worded it wrong, Garcia wouldn't actually use the MLE, it's just a max early bird deal is the same as the MLE (same as why the poison pill on Asik/Lin had to start at 5).

    Neither Parsons or Beverly are on rookie scale contracts (that's only for first rounders), Parsons cap hold is the 190%, as for Beverley, I'm not entirely sure, it's either 190% or his qualifying offer (I do believe it's the qualifying offer though since he's restricted)
     
    #18 Aleron, Jul 8, 2013
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2013
  19. Rockets12

    Rockets12 Member

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    I would Love LMa on this team. I don't really see us getting either of them though, your scenario is possible though (we'd have to be really lucky again)
     
    #19 Rockets12, Jul 8, 2013
  20. hooroo

    hooroo Member

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    Morey has between now & the 2014-15 trade deadline to shake loose either Aldridge or Love.

    Right now the Rockets don't have the assets to get either one.

    This is part of the reason why I think Asik is a keeper. Even at 15M in his last year he can be an extend & trade asset.

    In the meantime the Rockets need to find a short term star or near star level player they can flip as part of the trade package they build.

    Would the Pacers take Lin for Granger? If the Rockets can somehow salary dump Lin then use the newfound cap room on AK47 on a 2 year max deal. No other contender can offer AK47 a 7-8M/yr deal.

    Granger or AK47 + Asik + draft picks &/ rights for Aldridge or Love

    As the Rockets wait for their 3rd star they're doing it in a way that's showcasing the PF role but also addressing much needed floor spacing and perimeter defense through Granger/AK47.
     
    #20 hooroo, Jul 8, 2013
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