Would this trade be good from an Astros perspective? Astros trade Daryle Ward (or R. Hidalgo) and Keith Ginter for ... CF Carlos Beltran, Kansas City (Beltran's description here )
I'd trade Hidalgo for Beltran in a second. However, there's no way KC would take on Hidalgo's contract.
I would do this deal in a second. Ward belongs in the AL anyway, and Beltran is a gold-glove caliber CF who would fit great between Biggio and Bagwell.
That's understandable, but would you throw in Ginter, too? That's what makes this deal a no-no. Ward for Beltran straight up, now we've got a debate there. I would still keep Ward.
Why not include Ginter? He's not on the major league roster, he's not going to supplant Ensberg or Biggio this year, and we have Burke and Whiteman waiting at AA. As for Ward, I like his potential as much as the next guy, but he's a 1B, plain and simple. With his body type, he will never be a good outfielder, and as he get older, he's just going to get slower. If an opportunity to get Beltran presented itself, I would give the Royals Ward and their pick of any position player in New Orleans.
Riiiiiiiight... Ward's a better hitter than Beltran. Now, Beltran does possibly make up for this in defense vis a vis ward, if both played CF. Fortunately, they do not. Look at the situation, rather, in the context of the team. If you take Beltran, what you're really doing is comparing his defense to Berkman's (although I have no idea why Hidalgo's not playing CF instead). Berkman isn't as fast, but does get good reads on balls, generally. And he's sound fundamentally. Hell, he even made sports center for a good defensive play a couple days ago. So, the comparison you're really forced to make is this: does the gap between Ward's offensive potential and Beltran's maxed out offensive potential make up for the difference between Berkman and Beltran, in CF. I'd probably give the Berkman/Ward the nod over Berkman/Beltran. I'd definitely favor Hidalgo/Ward over Hidalgo/Beltran. But even if Berkman/Beltran does have a slight advantage, there's now way it makes up for the difference when you throw Ginter into the equation. Burke and Whiteman. So what? The fallacy here is that prospects always blossom into major leaguers. They don't. Most "can't-miss" prospects, even, do indeed... miss. And neither Burke nor Whiteman is even at that level. The odds are better that one of Ginter, Burke, and Whiteman will work out than just two of them. Biggio's probably going to retire soon. If not this year... then at least within the next 2-3 years. I'd prefer to have a replacement for him. And let's not forget, 2b is a more important defensive position than CF.
haven-Berkman is a significant upgrade over Ward defensively. You would have to compare the difference in Berkman and Beltran's defense plus the difference in Berkman and Wards defense vs. the offense of Beltran vs. Ward. You should also probably look at how it changes the lineup-Beltran adds a table setter with some pop, as well as some speed that could hit 1 or 2 with Biggio. Hypothetically here's a comparison: Biggio-Biggio Beltran-Ausmus Bagwell-Bagwell Berkman-Berkman Hidalgo-Hidalgo Ensberg-Ward Ausmus-Ensberg Everett-Everett It's a gamble. Beltran potentially could set the lineup on fire, getting on base with Biggio for Bagwell and Berkman to clean and driving the pitchers crazy. Or, forcing Ensberg into the 6th hole, and lessening Doggy's protection could make the lineup completely ineffective from 5 down. Also, haven- to say "most" can't miss prospects do in fact make it. It's the ones that don't that stick in our mind as the examples. I wonder abou Ginter-personally, if Lugo is a 3rd string SS/PH, I'd rather have Ginter's right handed bat than Lugo's. But, is his future at 2B? He's not a very good fielder, and is more or less than antithesis of the prototype 2B-which Biggio, pre-injuries, was. Burke in my mind is more the heir apparent to Biggio, as he's a leadoff hitter type with skills, and plays the game right. Two years is also his time frame for the league, so it works out well in that regard.
Exactly NIKE...when comparing the offense, as I stated in another thread, look at total runs produced, not just power numbers. If Ward has 120 RBI and 80 runs scored, he is no more valuable than a guy like Beltran who only drives in 80, but can score 120 easily hitting 2nd in this lineup. Plus, think of all the times Biggio gets on, only to be followed by Ausmus, who might advance the runner, but usually while sacrificing an out. This leaves Bagwell with a man on second and at least one out, meaning they can pitch around him knowing first base is open and a grounder by Berkman means inning over. Imagine, however, if a guy like Beltran followed Biggio. As a far more dangerous hitter, he can give Bagwell a lot more situations with runners on first and second or first and third and one less out than Ausmus would. Now all of a sudden, pitchers have to throw to Bagwell, which only improves his production, as well as Berkman's and Hidalgo's. As for the D, as NIKE said, the question isn't Berkman vs. Beltran in CF. It is Berkman vs. Beltran and Ward vs. Berkman. Undeniably, Beltran is better than Berkman, who in turn is a better LF than Ward is on his best day. Hidalgo, the best of the three, should remain in RF regardless because it is his best position and having his arm in right is too valuable to mess with. So to recap: if the trade was made, we could improve two positions defensively, while at the same time making the top of the lineup much more potent. Yes, losing Ward's power would hurt, but I don't think you could find a single GM in who wouldn't trade a power-hitting clod for equal offensive production and improved defense at two positions.
