[HP Basketball] Adventures in Lineup Misadventures

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by roxxy, Dec 4, 2012.

  1. roxxy

    roxxy Member

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    I was going to put this in the "It's pretty evident we're a better team when Lin is the primary ball handler" Thread but that one has officially gone to hell. So I started up a new one. There is some other stuff about the Suns & Pistons but I just copied the Rockets part. Lock if already posted.

    James Harden and Jeremy Lin almost never play separately

    Harden and Lin have been on the court together for 495 minutes this season and been outscored by 1.4 pts/100. Harden’s played just 126 minutes without Lin, and Lin has played just 55 minutes without Harden. Overall, the Rockets have outscored their opponents by 0.3 pts/100 with Harden on the court, meaning they’ve outscored opponents by 7.0 pts/100 when Harden has played without Lin. The Rockets have been outscored by 0.8 pts/100 with Lin on the court, meaning in the 55 minutes he’s played without Harden, the Rockets have outscored opponents by 4.6 pts/100. Just a hunch, but it might be time to start splitting them up more often.

    Also interesting, the Rockets score at a higher per possession rate when either Harden or Lin is off the floor than when they’re on it. Probably because they play most of their minutes together, and that combination hasn’t exactly been successful.

    http://www.hardwoodparoxysm.com/2012/12/04/adventures-in-lineup-misadventures/

    Some more stats from an insider article posted here (Thanks Arthur): http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=7392822&postcount=2576


    Situation Pts Poss. ORtg Diff
    Lin + Harden 896 876 102.3 --
    Lin, no Harden 101 96 104.3 +2.0
    Harden, no Lin 248 235 105.6 +3.3

    Frankly I am of the opinion that the Rockets should have them keep playing together so that they figure things out. Season is still very young & the fact that the point differential (between on the court/off the court stats) for bother players aren't significantly bigger, is a good thing. Considering also that this is the youngest team in the NBA that had no training camp, is missing their head coach, and has been together for just about a month. Rocket fans should be please. I have a lot of other opinions that support the premise of forcing them to learn to play with one another but I can save those for another time.

    Just some fun facts to stimulate lively discussion in a constructive manner. :)
     
    1 person likes this.
  2. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Harden plays without Lin in the middle of each half, probably more so in the first half. That also happens to be when we're facing the other teams reserves, which is probably the best explanation for why our point differential goes up in these situations.
     
  3. cytrynowa

    cytrynowa Member

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    There was an interview with Sampson and he said they would try staggering the minutes more, but needed Delfino back before they could. He said they would play Harden more with the bench. Why him and not Lin? I was a little surprised... is it because he could elevate the bench more than Lin could?
     
  4. Arthurprescott2

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    I have been harping about staggering their minutes since the 3rd game, but that said, I'm starting to come around to the idea that Harden/Lin should adjust and work their way through it.

    If there were no signs of adjustment, it would be one thing. But in the last few games, they have been adjusting and getting pretty good results for the most part. So yea, let them push through and learn/develop in ways they didn't have to before.

    Yet there still remains a problem w/ the high # mins they play and the lack of a back-up PG. That problem might only be mitigated by staggering minutes. Unless TD somehow steps up (he did an ok job last game against Utah - but Sampson took him out about 2-3 plays too late in the 4th. Sadly, he's not even fit to be a game manager).
     
  5. just a word

    just a word Member

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    I was thinking that because Harden would be, in theory, more with Aldrich whom he's worked with more, and that Lin would work more with the starters with whom he'd had more practices/training camp with.

    One thing that I was thinking is that Lin played less minutes in general and I think that might also be part of the reason why Lin hasn't played more without Harden. After the first two games of the season McHale mentioned that they're going to have to monitor both Asik's and Lin's minutes very carefully, which brings me to think that both of their conditioning isn't fully there yet for longer minutes. Asik because of the transition to starter and Lin because of regaining strength since the knee surgery/rehab.
     
  6. Skyhoop

    Skyhoop Member

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    That's a good point, playing against reserves instead of against starters surely helped Harden's numbers.

    Anyway, regardless of the actual numbers, staggering them is only a stopgag till there's a real backup PG, simply because TD is awful running the offense without Harden or Lin on the court.

    At most, staggering Harden and Lin is simply punting the issue down the road. These two guys need to play together, build chemistry, and work out a better balance in their offensive coordination.

    If Harden and Lin can't work out the kinks together, this team will be limited in their ceiling since even if you stagger them, there will still be a significant chunk of overlap time when they will both be in together. So it's better to work out the offensive balance kinks now, instead of punting the problem down the road.
     
  7. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    Their minutes need to be staggered. People have been saying this from the beginning. Harden also probably plays a few more minutes per game than he should, 39 is really pushing it, especially when it's his first year as a starter.

    Also those of you saying Lin and Harden need to build chemistry: True, but keep in mind that even if you stagger their minutes, they'll still be on the floor together more often than not. They will have plenty of time to play together, but each of them is strongest with the ball in their hands, and I doubt that will ever change. So...
     
  8. roxxy

    roxxy Member

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    You raise a fair point that more often than not they will be playing the bulk of their minutes together.

    I think their minutes can be staggered depending on the match ups. I don't think either player has proven that if the defense is focused solely on them they can handle that kind of defensive pressure & make the right decision. Against long athletic defensive teams I think it is better that we keep them on together as much as possible.

    Part of the reason why the pairing hasn't worked together is likely because of Lin's individual shooting woes as well. As Lin continues to improve that I think we will see more positive results. Just a few thoughts to consider.
     
  9. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Contributing Member

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    Staggering is probably the best from a win now perspective, but I can see Rockets wanting them to develop chemistry. I expect a Harden Lin backcourt to be around for several years. I think the Rockets are Lin developing a jump shot from having one of the scariest back courts.
     
  10. rocketsfan4

    rocketsfan4 Member

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    I think Harden has been playing too many minutes. I just watched the first Lakers game, and it was clear that Harden did not have the energy to exert on defense. If you play someone 40 minutes a game (even more so in a relatively meaningless regular season game, assuming your final goal in life isn't just to make playoffs as a 7 or 8 seed), you are going to have to pace yourself and can't go all out on defense. Likewise, it looked like Lin didn't have his legs towards the end of the first Lakers game, as he started off very well then tailed off. If you rest both more, you get fresher legs, more defensive effort (although Lin always gives effort even at the detriment of his offense), lower risk of injury, plus more PT for the bench players, which gives them game experience plus more motivation to stay focused mentally on the game at hand. Wait until a key playoff series before you overplay your stars. I get a weird feeling that some games are being coached on a "win-now" basis, but perhaps that is the reality of today's NBA.
     
  11. just a word

    just a word Member

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    I wonder if that's because the beginning of the season had some winnable games; if you look ahead to the Rocket's December-early Jan schedule, it's utterly hideous. But it gets better after that.

    To be honest, I'd be REALLY surprised if the Rockets come out of December a .500 team, and if they do I wouldn't be surprised if they manage to land higher than 7th seed (which Wages of Wins currently projects them for, based on strength of schedule).
     
  12. Ynnis888

    Ynnis888 Member

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    Reserving judgement regarding the staggering of minutes.

    But I admit that we look more cohesive when one of them is on the floor.

    For the meantime, James said that they probably need two more weeks to gel. In my opinion, building chemistry is very important. We should make sure that we don't compromise this for a temporary gain.

    Hope for the best.
     
  13. Allegro

    Allegro Member

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    I think the idea is to avoid TD+Harden or TD+Lin, both of which are hideous pairings.

    If our dolphin is healthy we could give him a lot of minutes by running Lin+Delfino or Harden+Delfino.
     
  14. Allegro

    Allegro Member

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    Make that "Lin+Delfino <b>and</b> Harden+Delfino".
     
  15. AdrenaLINe

    AdrenaLINe Rookie

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    I feel Lin and Harden are not being used correctly when they are on the court with each other...

    I get it, working on their weaknesses...

    unfortunately the Rox fan base wont let that happen...

    instead of looking at this being a young team with potential...

    they still look at this team as the same one as last year

    they one that was going to make the playoffs :eek:
     

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