Lost in much of the discussion over which of the point guards to start and whether to start the twin towers, is what I consider a question at least as important: How should McHale stagger minutes? And it's an especially interesting question this year, because the lineups can affect the style of play so dramatically, moving the team from a lock-down defensive twin-towers lineup to a small-ball run-and-gun lineup. I think that at least one of the rim protectors (Howard and Asik) and one of the attacking guards (Harden and Lin) should always be on the court. It bothered me last year that sometimes both Harden and Lin were sitting. Before the decision was made to start the twin towers with Bev, I was thinking that an early substitution after 4-5 minutes of play of Bev for Lin and Asik for D-Mo would make the most sense. I thought that D-Mo is so offensively versatile that he would be well suited for a few drawn up plays at the beginning of the game and would help to get Dwight involved in the offense early. (Even though I wasn't expecting D-Mo to play more than 15 minutes a game.) A substitution of Casspi for Dwight near the end of the first quarter could then be made to give the Rockets a stretch-four small-ball lineup. In that way the coaches would have had a look at the full gamut of options (conventional, twin towers and small-ball) in the first quarter. And it would keep the point guards' and centers' minutes staggered. I have no problem with the decision to start the twin towers and Bev. But I'm wondering what substitution patterns make the most sense now. Any ideas?
How early the substitution occurs, depends on how successful the starting line up plays. I have serious doubt about how long Lin will last for 6th man. I think the first sub should be Casspi replacing Asik, coz I see a lot of potential problems with the twin towers while facing certain match ups. In terms of staggering, McHale's lack of ability in in-game subs skills failed to make the staggering working last year. This year, Lin is coming off the bench, I hope it will be better to stagger his time with Harden. Asik may be left on the bench the whole 4th Qtr during some games. I simply can't see u leave Howard and Asik the last 5 min of a close game. Defense wise, yes, but if the other team does a hack HowardAsik, we would be screwed. Putting ur team's fate in the "hands" of Howard and Asik is not gonna happen. But I can see during the first 3 qtr Asik and Howard can play together and maybe having Asik in the 2nd Qtr, and then Howard the 4th Qtr.
I think it'll be similar to what we've seen in the last two pre-season games. Ignoring Lin coming in for Harden due to Harden's injury, it was basically: Lin in for Beverley Casspi in for Asik --- After 3-4 Minutes -- Beverley in for Harden Asik in for Howard Garcia in for Parsons
McHale showed last season that he was poor with in game player time management and substitutions. Hope he has improved on that aspect this year.
all depends anything can happen, howard culd get 2 fouls ealry and force asik to play the whole 1st quarter (this will happen some games). no need to worry about lin and harden both sitting, that wont happen this year part of the reason lin is coming off bench, I think thats part of mchales reasonings
yes this will be the rotation (pending foul trouble) I got brewer and dmo showing up late 3rd 4th 9th & 10th in rotations, Dmo first
Agree with OP. In particular I think the "Twin Towers" concept is becoming a straw man. There are other considerations, such as when Dwight is on the bench (i.e. no Twin Towers), what is happening on the floor? I want Asik to be happening on the floor. I like how McHale has managed that rotation so far. Not to mention the fact that if Dwight went down and we had no Asik, we would take a lot of losses. As for Lin-Bev, I don't even want to think about that right now. Incredibly, the LOF's are more pestilent than last year.
well assuming the starting lineup is Bev/Harden/Parsons/Howard/Asik, I would assume the first sub (with no injuries or foul trouble) would come around 5-7 minutes in to the game, and would bring in Lin and Casspi for Bev and Asik. That would give us: Lin/Harden/Parsons/Casspi/Howard Next substitution would probably be either last 2 minutes of the 1st quarter, or between 1st and second quarter, and will bring in Bev, Garcia and Asik for Harden, Parsons, and Dwight, and would give us: Bev/Lin/Garcia/Casspi/Asik After that they could get back to the starting lineup, or go small ball with something like: Bev/Lin/Harden/Parsons/Howard it really depends on the team we are gonna be playing, but the 1st quarter subs should stay pretty consistent barring injuries/foul trouble
I'd like an 8-man rotation of Beverley, Harden, Parsons, Dwight, Asik, Lin, Casspi, and Garcia. We can't go wrong with any starting line up with those 8.
I would really like to see a deeper lineup. It will help preserve health and keep batteries charged for the playoffs. McHale has said he'd like to go 9 or 10. So let's call it 9.5. Assuming McHale sticks with that 9.5 rotation concept, it's the first eight players you mentioned, plus D-Mo as ninth in minutes and Brewer as half way into the rotation (getting play when we are facing an excellent offensive wing player and need to throw more good defenders at him). The rest will be used only situationally and with blowouts, at least at first.
I think Mchale will go deeper into the bench as the season progresses and injuries start to pick up (Nothing serious of course). I like the idea of a deeper bench, just not sure who gets a cut in minutes.
Yeah some minutes for DMO or Jones at the 4 when Dwight or Asik needs rest and we don't want to go small. So I guess a 9 man rotation is what I'd like.
I don't see DMo or Jones getting more than 10 minutes a game. Talented guys in to their second year, but still have to play half what most rookies played previous season already. You can't develop guys to solid NBA players by sending them to pathetic D-league their first season and then benching them their 2nd year. Srsly, who does that
We'll also need a good wing defender on the court at all times. A healthy dose of Parsons-Garcia-Brewer rotation looks good to me. Maybe even rotating Parsons to 4 and bringing out Garcia and/or Brewer as wing defenders. You've got 3 point shooting and lock-down defense if coupled with either Dwight or Asik in the front court.
Another consideration is putting most of the twin towers minutes early in quarters, so that they will help to bring teams into the penalty early, while putting good foul-shooting lineups in late in quarters so they can take advantage of the penalty. So twin-towers minutes mostly early in quarters and the small-ball minutes mostly late.
Yeah I'm not sold on McHale's ability to manage player rotations properly. If I were to lay down the rules, this is how I would do it: 1) The two core squads will be 1-1-2-3-5 and 1-2-3-5-5. 2) Either Dwight Howard or Omer Asik is on the floor at all times. 3) Either James Harden or Jeremy Lin is on the floor at all times. 4) James Harden's primary backup is Jeremy Lin (per #3) 5) Patrick Beverley's primary backup is Jeremy Lin What this turns into is that the following players should expect to see ~30 MPG or more: Dwight Howard (5) Omer Asik (5) Chandler Parsons (3) James Harden (2) Jeremy Lin (1) Patrick Beverley (1) That leaves ~60 minutes for the remaining players to get their playing time in and for McHale to get the core players some extra rest time. This basically fulfills what I think the coaching staff is actually going for, which is a true player rotation and not some sort of "first team" vs. "second team" concept. This isn't high school. You aren't throwing out your varsity squad against your JV squad and calling it a night. The personnel on the floor should constantly be evolving and rotating in and out depending upon how the game is going and what you need against the other team. If you want to lock-down the defense, then put the Twin Towers out there in a zone on the paint. If you want to go heavy with the scoring, then put the 1-1-2-3-5 rotation out there and let them go crazy. You could alternatively go with a more traditional 1-2-3-4-5 spread (with Casspi instead of Beverley/Lin in the dual 1's) but honestly I don't see the benefit unless the team really has trouble defending the other team's 4 (which is a stretch, because there aren't many 4's out there who hit their shots with a high enough efficiency that we should be all that scared).
I totally agree with the focus on the staggering strategy (vs. the over-hype on who is starting) so the second unit can contribute offensively as well as defensively for a full 48 minutes game.
Interesting way of looking at the rotation via the concept of two core squads. That approach certainly maximizes the minutes of your best six players.
