I've been mulling over the question for awhile and trying to come up with some ways to estimate just how much we need to improve. The following is by no means complete but I thought I would generate some discussion on the topic. PYTHAGOREAN METHOD: For estimation purposes I based my analysis on the concept of the "pythagorean method" for projecting wins and losses. Feel free to google the concept for the NBA and you'll find a variety of info out there so I'm not going to explain the background of the method. Some of you may be interested in what the results of the pythagorean method looks like and it's accuracy. Here is a link for the 2005-2006 NBA season on ESPN: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/stats/rpi?season=2006 For the Rockets in 2005-2006 the expected wins-losses using this method yields 36-46. Actual Rockets record was 34-48. ROCKETS 2006-2007 W-L ESTIMATE: Alright, let's get to work . The pythagorean method uses essentially pts scored and points allowed by a team to estimate w-l record. You can also use offensive (ORtg) and defensive (DRtg) to estimate as well. For my analysis I just used pts-scored & points allowed. So let's assume that the Rockets defense maintains the same effectiveness it did last year. (From a DRtg standpoint they were 103.3 - making them 8th out of 30 teams. The league avg was 106.2 points per 100 possessions allowed). So if defense remains the same, what impact does incremental improvements to the Rockets offense look like as it relates to wins and losses? The following table projects that with last year's total points scored and points allowed as a starting reference point. Code: Own Pts Own PPG Opp Pts .PCT W L 7387 90 7517 0.439 36 46 7390 90.1 7517 0.441 36 46 7400 90.2 7517 0.445 36 46 7425 90.5 7517 0.457 37 45 7450 90.8 7517 0.468 38 44 7475 91.1 7517 0.481 39 43 7500 91.4 7517 0.492 40 42 7525 91.7 7517 0.503 41 41 7550 92 7517 0.515 42 40 7575 92.3 7517 0.526 43 39 7600 92.6 7517 0.538 44 38 7625 92.9 7517 0.549 45 37 7650 93.2 7517 0.561 46 36 7675 93.5 7517 0.572 46 36 7700 93.9 7517 0.583 47 35 7725 94.2 7517 0.594 48 34 7750 94.5 7517 0.605 49 33 7775 94.8 7517 0.615 50 32 7800 95.1 7517 0.626 51 31 7825 95.4 7517 0.636 52 30 7850 95.7 7517 0.647 53 29 7875 96 7517 0.657 53 29 7900 96.3 7517 0.667 54 28 7925 96.6 7517 0.676 55 27 7950 96.9 7517 0.686 56 26 7975 97.2 7517 0.695 57 25 8000 97.5 7517 0.705 57 25 8025 97.8 7517 0.714 58 24 8050 98.1 7517 0.722 59 23 8075 98.4 7517 0.731 59 23 8100 98.7 7517 0.739 60 22 8125 99 7517 0.748 61 21 8150 99.3 7517 0.756 62 20 8175 99.6 7517 0.764 62 20 So using this method as a basis for predicting W-L's, if we think the Rockets need to get to 55 wins for 06-07 to be in the middle of the pack of the Western Conf playoff contention the offense would have to essentially improve from last year from 90 ppg to about 96.6 ppg, a net increase of about +6.6 ppg. (Again this assumes the defense still holds opponents to about 91.6 ppg). SO HOW WILL THE ROCKETS GENERATE A +6.6 PPG OFFENSIVE IMPROVEMENT? This is where the rubber meets the road as it were in the discussion. Again supposing that 55 wins is what we are aiming for, generating another 6.6 ppg doesn't seem like a heck of a lot right? Let's start putting this into perspective. One way to generate 6 points is making an additional 2 3-ptrs a game. Doesn't sound so bad right? Let's assume the Rockets shoot the same amount of 3-ptrs per game they did in 05-06...17.2 3PA. They were making it at a clip of 5.7 3PM a game. Increase this by 2 and we get 7.7/17.2. This equates to 45% 3pt pct. Putting this in perspective, the league best last year for 3pt pct was Phoenix at 40%. The league median was 36%. So this is probably out of the question. A more realistic possibility is to manufacture 6 more points a game by improving 2's and 3's (addtional 1.5 2-ptrs and 1 3-ptr). Sparing everyone the details, my estimate is that we have to achieve an overall FG% of about 46%. Again putting things into perspective, the max last year was Phoenix at 47.8% with the league median at 45.3%. So the really interesting question becomes how do the individual players have to perform to net an additional 6.6 points or hit about 46% of our field goals? Here's a hypothetical breakdown of FGM / FGA / FG% per game for the Rockets Roster. The following table is just using mainly numbers from last season for existing players and either career numbers or just made up for the new players. %FGA represents the percentage of the FGA's that player would take. Code: Player FGM FGA FG% %FGA Tmac 8.7 21.5 40.46 19.33 Y. Ming 8.2 15.8 51.89 14.2 Alston 4.4 11.7 37.6 10.52 J. Ho 4.9 10.7 45.79 9.62 Snyder 2.4 5.7 42.1 5.12 Battier 3.8 8.4 45.23 7.55 L. Head 3.2 7.9 40.5 7.1 Wells 5.1 10.9 46.78 9.8 Hayes 1.5 2.6 57.69 2.33 Span 1 2.7 37.03 2.42 Novak 2 3.7 54.05 3.32 Deke 0.8 1.5 53.33 1.34 Lucas 1.1 2.8 39.28 2.51 Padgett 1.5 3.5 42.85 3.14 KJ 0.5 1.8 27.77 1.61 TOTALS 49.1 111.2 44.15 1 So if this is the offensive production of the roster we would see that we would not get to the 46% FG% mark. Here's a combination that would get us pretty close: Code: Player FGM FGA FG% %FGA Tmac 9.2 21.5 42.79 19.33 Y. Ming 8.2 15.8 51.89 14.2 Alston 3.8 8.2 46.34 7.37 J. Ho 4.9 10.7 45.79 9.62 Snyder 2.4 5.7 42.1 5.12 Battier 3.8 8.4 45.23 7.55 L. Head 3.7 7.9 46.83 7.1 Wells 5.1 10.9 46.78 9.8 Hayes 1.5 2.6 57.69 2.33 Span 1 2.7 37.03 2.42 Novak 2 3.7 54.05 3.32 Deke 0.8 1.5 53.33 1.34 Lucas 1.1 2.8 39.28 2.51 Padgett 1.5 3.5 42.85 3.14 KJ 0.5 1.8 27.77 1.61 TOTALS 49.5 107.7 45.96 1 The main improvements here are: (1) TMac averaging more like he did in 04-05 (2) Rafer taking fewer shots and increasing his FG% to 46% (maybe unrealistic - his best it appears was about 42%) (3) Luther increasing his FG% to 46% Anyway - was a bit more of a rambling analysis than what I might usually do but thought I would stimulate the discussion on the topic.
Damn dude, this stuff is mindblowing. I just like seeing the final result. Thanks for the analysis, keep em comin.
Wouldn't another factor be free throws attempted and made? Yao and TMac get to the line often and shoot well from the stripe, but a healthier McGrady should be able to get to the line even more often, and a Yao more ready to assert himself on offense should get more respect from the refs as well, leading to a net increase in points. The addition of Bonzi, who gets to the basket well, should also help in this respect. Unless I misread, your projections fail to take free throws into account. If so, then I would be fairly optimistic that the improvement necessary in our offense is even less drastic than indicated.
nice analysis, tango. another good way to generate those additional points would be to take more shots. i think our vastly improved role players will enable this to happen through two means - improved turnover margin and better offensive rebounding this coupled with your improved shooting percentages and we're well on the way to the western conference finals! go rockets!
qwerty - I assumed no change in FTM's. 18.3 is what the Rockets were at this past year. I actually miscalculated. Assuming 18.3 FTM's for 06-07 the FG% we would need to be at is 46.5%. If we factor FTM's, the league median was 20.1 FTM's. If we assume the Rockets gain 2 of the 6.6 pts from additional free throws that puts them about 20.3 FTM ppg rate. With all that the FG% then goes down to 45.9% which equals to the amount of projected improvements that are necessary in the last table. geechy - yes that is true regarding possibly more FGA's. But the corresponding team's FGA's also go up as well. For instance if you look at the FGA's in 0405 we find that the Rockets were at 78 FGA's but their opponents also shot 78 FGA's. It would be interesting to try and factor better offensive rebounding in.
Offensive rebounds, increase FT attempts, decrease opponent FT attempts, etc will all factor into this. I belive the Rockets will improve on the defensive end at least as much as they do on the offensive end.
I say if they play alot better than last year, they will probably win more games. But that's just me.
In my research, I discovered that if we outscore any opponent by at least one point, we will win all the games. So, we need to outscore them by at least one in 65 games this year in the regular season. DD
If we maintain 5 turn over or less we have the shot to majke it all the way. We have the best team i've ever seen since the 94'-95' season. That is the key, we got offense, defense, rebounder, shooter and feeder. What else will you ask?
Funny guys. Surprised you aren't taking me more seriously here . For example, let's take DD's "all we need to do is to score 1 more point than the opposition" concept. So let's say that averages to 92.6 ppg while the defense limits the opposition to 91.6 ppg. The end result would be a .537 winning pct which translates to 44-38 W-L record. Conversely if DD is predicting that the Rockets go on a 65-17 W-L record then I predict that the Rockets would need to average 12+ ppg more than their opposition (edit: of course this assumes the Rockets defense allowing 91.6 ppg.). Given that the highest avg point margin differential was only +6.8 (Spurs) that seems like a pretty difficult thing to do. I was hoping to bring some more logic to the discussion vs. just whimsical wishful thinking regarding the Rockets prospects.
Nice work. One thing you probably overlooked is that when you improve your scoring by shooting more, or making more shots, you will allow your opponents score more due to the extra time/possessions the other teams would have, even with the same defensive %. That means the same defensive % will yield more than just 91.6 points. Of course, our possessions will increase as well. I think the better way to look at it is the point-difference, you start with the offensive and defensive scoring %, assuming each team has the same number of possessions, then work the scoring % for each end.
This is all true. I did assume however that the Rockets possessions (88, NBA avg=90.6) and fga's (76.2, NBA avg=79) remained the same as last year. I could vary that but that was a little more complicated - e.g. if possessions (pace) increased I would have to guess at what the increased possessions might translate to for opponents etc. For simplicity sake as a first pass I basically assumed same # of possessions, same # of shots, but higher pct of making the shots. Of course there's any number of combinations of improvements offensively and defensively that could occur as folks have already mentioned here. Regardless that should result in some # of points scored and points allowed no matter the combination of improvements. You can just stick those numbers into the equation and see what it gives you. pyth win pct = (points_scored^14) / (points_scored^14 + points_allowed^14) Take that win_pct and multiply by 82 games and you get the expected W's. What was of more interest to me was to speculate as to how those improvements might come about in terms of contribution by player etc. to arrive at the points_scored and points_allowed figures for a given W-L record.
