http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2015/insider/story/_/id/12878351/how-many-titles-your-favorite-team-won-now-nba Does anybody have an ESPN Insider account to see this? It sounds interesting. Wondering how many the Rockets SHOULD have, they might even take away our two titles claiming Jordan's Bulls SHOULD have won them instead.
More likely they would take those away because the team wasn't the best regular season team. This seems like it will be a stats based article, how good the team was going into the playoffs. But yep, if someone has access, post the list please.
I bet it won't be the Bulls that should have won '95, it will be the Spurs or Magic. But yeah, based on stats, we were the 6th seed...so don't get your panties in a wad. Expect them to say someone else in '95. That's like the whole point of an article like this....what top seeds failed, no?
Don't much like the premise. The team that actually wins the championship is the one that ought to win it (except the 2002 Lakers). Winning 16 playoff games is the criterion. A regular season juggernaut that doesn't have the fortitude to win in the playoffs isn't fit. A team with a fragile superstar who gets injured isn't fit. A team that can't prosper when the refs swallow their whistles isn't fit.
Spoiler It's a question that just about every serious fan has asked themselves before. How many titles should my favorite team have won by now? That question weighs especially heavily during these playoffs because when the 2015 NBA champion is crowned next month, it will be a long time coming for that team. Every squad left in this playoff picture -- except for the Chicago Bulls -- hasn't won a championship in at least two decades. Three teams -- the Cleveland Cavaliers, Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers -- have yet to win a title, period. But expectations are everything. And this is where the title-bankrupt Cavs and Clippers franchises split in their misery. LeBron James and the Cavs have sported multiple jilted juggernauts over the years while the Clippers hadn't won 50 games in a season until Chris Paul came to town. Because of how dominant the Cavs' regular-season teams have been, Cleveland has felt a special kind of long-standing heartbreak that Clippers fans don't quite understand. Enter the idea of the expected title, a concept that leads to glory and heartbreak. It's something I've been thinking about ever since I read SB Nation's Tom Ziller's excellent column about the lesson of the San Antonio Spurs and why it's rarely smart to break up a championship contender. If you're winning 55 to 60 games every season, stay the course. But how many titles should the Spurs have won by now? And the Cavs? Your favorite team? Let's figure it out. The math behind championship expectations is tricky. We have to account for home-court advantage, injuries, opponent strength, referees, conference inequality and countless other variables that can cloud the picture, but let's keep this simple by looking at the most important one of all: win-loss record. Looking at regular-season records since the NBA-ABA merger in 1976, I created a model, with the help of Insider stat-wiz Kevin Pelton, that quantifies how many titles a team should have won based on wins and losses heading into the playoffs. It's not a perfect measure, but it cuts to the heart of it: Really good teams in the regular season have a really good shot at winning the title. And we can learn a lot from it. What we've found is that a team that boasts exactly 60 wins has a 16 percent chance -- or about one-in-six odds -- of winning the title. Those chances are cut in half if you win just 55 games in the regular season (7.7 percent odds), underlining the importance of getting to that 60-win plateau. If you win 50 games, the odds are just 3.6 percent. (Note: shortened-season records are translated to 82-game equivalents.) This is the key: The relationship between regular-season wins and championships is not linear; it's curved. In other words, yes, the more you win, the better chance you have to grab a title, but it's exponentially so. Consider that since the merger, 10 of the 12 teams that have won 65-plus games in the regular season have all won the title (sorry 2006-07 Mavs and 2008-09 Cavs). Get in that territory and your odds skyrocket (hello, Golden State Warriors). If you're a visual learner, you can see the curve below. See how it starts to sharply bend upward at around 60 wins? That's what we mean by non-linear expectations. It's not a straight line. For championship odds, each win isn't created equal. So, enough about math. Let's get to the good stuff. Given each team's record every season, we mapped out the probability that each team has won a title by now. For some teams that routinely excel in the regular season, the expectations are multiple titles. For others (looking at you, Toronto), the expectations are almost nil. Which franchises since the NBA-ABA merger overachieve the most, based on win-loss record? Which teams have underachieved the most? Let's do this. Overachievers 1. Los Angeles Lakers | 5.9 titles above expected Expected titles: 4.1 | Actual titles: 10 Playoff appearances: 35 | 60-win seasons: 9 | 55-win seasons: 20 No one's feeling sorry for the Lakers these days. Sure, the Lakers may be down on their luck now, but they've gone above and beyond expectations to nab 10 titles since the merger. Six of their nine 60-plus-win teams have won titles, which is a crazy-high hit rate. The most impressive championship run was the 2000-01 Lakers that waltzed to a 56-26 record in the regular season before stepping on the gas and going 16-1 in the playoffs. Perhaps the greatest rope-a-dope NBA champion in modern times. 2. Chicago Bulls | 2.5 titles above expected Expected titles: 3.5 | Actual titles: 6 Playoff appearances: 25 | 60-win seasons: 7 | 55-win seasons: 10 The Bulls don't contend often, but they make it count. The 2011 and 2012 Bulls are the only ones of the eight Bulls teams to win more than 55 games and not win the title. The six other times, it's championship time. That's the Michael Jordan legacy. His Airness has fallen short of the title many times, but never with a great team. The 72-10 team from 1996 was basically a lock, but the rest of the Jordan title teams had plenty of competition. If the current Chicago team that went 50-32 somehow wins the title, it'll be the franchise's first under 57 wins. 3. San Antonio Spurs | 1.8 titles above expected Expected titles: 3.2 | Actual titles: 5 Playoff appearances: 34 | 60-win seasons: 7 | 55-win seasons: 19 The Spurs have not just met expectations, they've exceeded them. According to this model, the Spurs should have only three championships to their name since the merger, but they've squeezed out five. Count 'em, Pop. The Spurs were bounced early by the Clippers this time, but they'll take their five championships and let others have their fun. For now. 4. Miami Heat | 1.6 titles above expected Expected titles: 1.4 | Actual titles: 3 Playoff appearances: 18 | 60-win seasons: 2 | 55-win seasons: 6 Pat Riley has the touch. The Heat have delivered twice as many championships as we'd expect given their regular-season record, and much of that credit goes to Riley's vision (and that guy LeBron James). From this perspective, the LeBron era in Miami should have yielded 0.7 titles, but they cashed in two chips. The 2005-06 team that went 52-30 in the regular-season is yet another Shaq squad that bulldozed its way to a title after a lackluster season. The Heat aren't great often, but when they are, they make the most of it. 5. Detroit Pistons | 1.5 titles above expected Expected titles: 1.5 | Actual titles: 3 Playoff appearances: 22 | 60-win seasons: 2 | 55-win seasons: 4 The 2005-06 Pistons didn't deliver after going 64-18 in the regular season, but Detroit fans can't complain with the overall results. Remarkably, the Pistons have three title banners despite sporting just four 55-win teams since the merger. The Pistons have experienced some lows lately, but the 2003-04 Pistons and the Bad Boys have delivered the highest of highs to the Motor City fan base. Underachievers 1. Phoenix Suns | 1.9 titles below expected Expected titles: 1.9 | Actual titles: 0 Playoff appearances: 27 | 60-win seasons: 3 | 55-win seasons: 11 Phoenix is Heartbreak City. No one understands the difficulty of winning a title quite like the team in the desert. Mike D'Antoni's Suns went 62-20, 54-28, 61-21 and 55-27 in four seasons and came up empty. But that's not the worst of it. The 1990s Suns won 55-plus games on five occasions and struck out all five times (right, Chuck?). Nineteen 50-win teams, and no rings to show for it. No one knows better than coach Jeff Hornacek, who played on six Suns playoff teams before eventually joining ... 2. Utah Jazz | 1.7 titles below expected Expected titles: 1.7 | Actual titles: 0 Playoff appearances: 25 | 60-win seasons: 4 | 55-win seasons: 8 Alas, Michael Jordan. The Jazz are still searching for that first title much thanks to Jordan and the Bulls upending them in back-to-back Finals. The Jazz aren't quite the Spurs, but their sustained brilliance under Hall of Fame coach Jerry Sloan rivals the Spurs' current stretch. Karl Malone, John Stockton, Deron Williams, Andrei Kirilenko and Hornacek have all contributed to Utah's 15 50-plus-win seasons under Sloan. But they're still hunting for the big one. 3. Cleveland Cavaliers | 1.1 titles below expected Expected titles: 1.1 | Actual Titles: 0 Playoff appearances: 17 | 60-win seasons: 2 | 55-win seasons: 4 This is why James came home, to deliver a title to Cleveland. After going 66-16 in 2008-09 and 61-21 in 2009-10, the King went to Miami to wear the championship crown. And now, after another 50-plus win season as a Cav, he faces an uphill battle to nab Cleveland's elusive title. But the Cavs' heartbreak came long before James, when they went to the playoffs seven times in the 1990s and never reached the Finals. Again, the Michael Jordan factor. 4. Oklahoma City Thunder | 1.0 titles below expected Expected titles: 2.0 | Actual Titles: 1 Playoff appearances: 25 | 60-win seasons: 4 | 55-win seasons: 11 Step right up, Billy Donovan. The Thunder have been as good as any team in the regular season over the past five seasons, but untimely injuries and bad fortune have forced Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to watch others hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy. The Thunder have posted an expected title count of 0.45 in the OKC era, which isn't all that high and could give Thunder fans some comfort. But there's a whole Sonics history here too. The 1979 Sonics won the title, but that feels like a lifetime -- and a relocation -- ago. 5 (tie). New York Knicks | 0.9 titles below expected Expected titles: 0.9 | Actual titles: 0 Playoff appearances: 22 | 60-win seasons: 1 | 55-win seasons: 4 These next three teams boast remarkably similar résumés, but the Knicks' struggles seem louder. The 'Bockers have two championship banners, but both came before the merger. Since then, they've cycled through 18 coaches and have only two Finals appearances in the sacred Garden. Whether it's led by Patrick Ewing or Carmelo Anthony, plenty of star-studded Knicks teams have been good, but not good enough to win it all. Again, the MJ factor looms large. 5 (tie). Indiana Pacers | 0.9 titles below expected Expected titles: 0.9 | Actual titles: 0 Playoff appearances: 22 | 60-win seasons: 1 | 55-win seasons: 4 Because of Reggie Miller's drama-filled heroics, everyone remembers the Pacers' run in the 1990s. But the Pacers of the 21st century have been much closer. The Pacers' lone 60-win season, under Rick Carlisle in 2003-04, came up short against the Detroit Pistons after earning the NBA's top record. And then the Malice at the Palace happened and scrambled everything. With all the good teams over the years, the Pacers should have won a title by now. Now, the fan base turns to Paul George. 5 (tie). Milwaukee Bucks | 0.9 titles below expected Expected titles: 0.9 | Actual titles: 0 Playoff appearances: 21 | 60-win seasons: 1 | 55-win seasons: 4 The Don Nelson era in the 1980s really hurt. From 1980-81 to 1986-87 the Bucks averaged 55 wins a season and never reached the Finals. Since then, they've had exactly one 50-plus-win season (in 2000-01 under George Karl), so most of the damage was done before most of today's NBA players were even born. But unlike New York, the future looks bright in Milwaukee with all its young talent. <PRE>How Many Titles Does Your Team Have Above/Below Expectations? TEAM EXPTITLES TITLES NET PLAYOFFS 60W 55W Lakers 4.1 10 5.9 35 9 20 Bulls 3.5 6 2.5 25 7 10 Spurs 3.2 5 1.8 34 7 19 Heat 1.4 3 1.6 18 2 6 Pistons 1.5 3 1.5 22 2 4 Rockets 1.0 2 1.0 26 0 4 Celtics 3.0 4 1.0 26 8 13 Wizards 0.2 1 0.8 16 0 0 Raptors 0.1 0 -0.1 6 0 0 Pelicans 0.2 0 -0.2 5 0 1 Warriors 0.2 0 -0.2 9 0 1 Hornets 0.3 0 -0.3 9 0 0 Grizzlies 0.3 0 -0.3 7 0 1 Clippers 0.3 0 -0.3 7 0 2 Timberwolves 0.3 0 -0.3 8 0 1 Nets 0.3 0 -0.3 18 0 0 76ers 1.5 1 -0.5 24 2 7 Blazers 1.6 1 -0.6 30 1 6 Mavericks 1.6 1 -0.6 19 3 8 Kings 0.6 0 -0.6 14 1 4 Nuggets 0.7 0 -0.7 24 0 1 Hawks 0.8 0 -0.8 25 0 3 Magic 0.8 0 -0.8 14 1 4 Bucks 0.9 0 -0.9 21 1 4 Knicks 0.9 0 -0.9 22 1 4 Pacers 0.9 0 -0.9 22 1 4 Thunder 2.0 1 -1.0 25 4 11 Cavaliers 1.1 0 -1.1 17 2 4 Jazz 1.7 0 -1.7 25 4 8 Suns 1.9 0 -1.9 27 3 11</PRE>
Kind of neat. So we technically overachieved, which is true, considering our '95 squad wasn't supposed to win.
Use .co.uk to view the full articles: http://www.espn.co.uk/nba/playoffs/...ow-many-titles-your-favorite-team-won-now-nba
I did it a different way. The Rockets have been a Houston franchise since 1971, when there were 17 teams. They had a 1 in 17 chance of winning that year. Chances declined somewhat as the league expanded over the years. But, summing up those chances through 2014, we should have won 1.76 championships. So, we're still slightly ahead of the curve. This heartbreak index stuff they did is fun and all, but for a person who likes thinking about the team-building, they're crunching numbers on a race that's already 90% run.
