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Houston Rodeo Has Been Cancelled

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by ima_drummer2k, Mar 11, 2020.

  1. Major

    Major Member

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    Except for the fact that it's more contagious and has a much higher mortaillty rate. And we have measures in place to prevent the flu like the flu shot. And anti-virals if you get it.

    The flu doesn't kill 10% of 80 year olds. If someone gets the flu at the Washington elderly center, a huge chunk of people don't die.
     
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  2. cmoak1982

    cmoak1982 Member

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    Not much higher contagion rates than the flu.
    It is more contagious but not by much.
    The mortality rate 1% vs 3% is still skewed by people at home that have self medicated. This confirmed by multiple in the medical field.
    SARS, MER (other coronavirus) had much higher mortality rates (double digit)
    If this was anything like those or Ebola then the reaction would be warranted.
    It is a risk for people over 70-80 yrs of age and those with weak immune systems. As are a ton of other ailments.
     
  3. Roscoe Arbuckle

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    So, what next? Should we close Downtown? Offices? Restaurants, etc? I'm not being hyperbolic, either.

    The amount of fear mongering and panic over this is beyond sad. This virus statistically is no worse than all the other viruses that have come & gone year after year after year.

    I'm not calling you ignorant. The problem is you know so much that simply isn't so.
     
  4. cmoak1982

    cmoak1982 Member

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    Add to that, those in the Life Care Center in Kirkland all had underlying health issues as well.
     
  5. Major

    Major Member

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    Not true.

    https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=228575

    One other important difference: The new coronavirus appears to be more infectious than the seasonal flu, experts said.

    People carrying the new coronavirus appear to spread the infection, on average, to an additional 2.2 people, federal health officials said in a recent letter in the New England Journal of Medicine.

    That's again on par with the pandemic 1918 Spanish flu, in which each infected person, on average, passed the virus on to between two and three people, said Dr. Waleed Javaid, director of infection prevention and control at Mount Sinai Downtown in New York City.

    That figure for the regular seasonal flu is around 1.3 new people infected for every person with the flu, according to a 2014 paper in BMC Infectious Diseases.


    It's also underestimated because many people who will die haven't yet. Current mortality is around 4%. If you assume it drops to 1%, that still leaves it as 10x as deadly as the flu.

    Those other ailments don't spread at nearly twice the rate of the flu.
     
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  6. Major

    Major Member

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    Yes, and you don't see them all dying every year from the flu... which tells us, it's not the same as the flu.
     
  7. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast

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    Who to believe? The CDC, WHO and NIH...or cmoak and roscoe?
     
  8. cmoak1982

    cmoak1982 Member

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    Current mortality rate is skewed by those self medicating and by China’s total numbers.

    2.2 vs 1.3 is not a significant leap in contagion rates.

    You’re getting hung up on the term Flu, which is a broad spectrum. If we start throwing out the extreme cases then the rates would be higher.

    All that is meant is that it isn’t very deadly, totals as of now are low. Symptoms are similar to flu.
     
  9. glad_ken

    glad_ken Contributing Member

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  10. cmoak1982

    cmoak1982 Member

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    Im literally looking at WHO statistics jackass.
    Calm down there rabble rouser
     
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  11. Major

    Major Member

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    Ummm, the difference between 2.2 and 1.3 is substantial.

    If you start with 1 person on day 1 with the 1.3 flu, you have 1,800 infections after 10 days.
    If you start with 1 person on day 1 with the 2.2 corona, you have 35,000 infections after 10 days.

    (assuming a 1 day transmission period as an example - you can use whatever period you want).
     
  12. MIAGI99

    MIAGI99 Member

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  13. MIAGI99

    MIAGI99 Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  14. cmoak1982

    cmoak1982 Member

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    It’s not significant when comparing to a common seasonal flu is what I’m saying.
    Again, I’m not saying to not be worried.
    I’m saying the reaction isn’t warranted.
    It isn’t much different than the flu.
    If you aren’t in the danger zones you are almost guaranteed to recover.

    It still needs to be taken seriously and contained as well as can be asked. I’m not sure shutting down everything is equal to the affects.
     
  15. Rokkit

    Rokkit Contributing Member

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    i think the Italy situation should tell us enough to not simply chalk this up to ‘it’s no worse than the flu’

    all of this is about prevention, keeping our health resources from being overwhelmed by those who would be impacted more heavily by the virus. Higher contagion rate, higher mortality rate, no vaccine or medication, etc all lead to a different situation than the flu.

    aggressive tactics aimed at prevention should not be conflated with ‘fear mongering’
     
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  16. Major

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    I just pointed you to the difference between the flu and corona in terms of transmission. A factor of 20x is not "not significant". It's literally nothing like the flu. In transmission rates. In mortality. In anything except the mild case symptoms.
     
  17. B-Bob

    B-Bob my celli weighs a ton

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    uh, he’s calm. He’s not the one calling people jackass.

    good luck to you.
     
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  18. cmoak1982

    cmoak1982 Member

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    Again, those in the medical field have said the numbers are skewed for mortality rates.

    You are comparing seasonal flu with the new “epidemic”. Total numbers are in overwhelming favor of the flu. That’s with all the vaccines available for something that has been studied for years.
    As a case study, take out China and look at the contagion rates.
    Or compare to the more extreme Flu types.
     
  19. cmoak1982

    cmoak1982 Member

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    If you read what was quoted then you understand the response. His insinuation was I was pulling numbers out of thin air and not credible sources.
    I’m fairly certain he’s a big boy and can respond to his own quotes.
    So with that, I say good day.
     
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