Houston Astros looking forward

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Rockets Pride, Jul 10, 2016.

  1. Rockets Pride

    Rockets Pride Member

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    We have a team that could win the World Series this year. No doubt about it. But some buddies and I were talking the next 5 years type stuff. Teach me something!

    Did you know ....
    We have locked in ...
    Altuve till 2020
    Springer till 2021
    Correa till 2022

    Here are my main questions for the coming offseason.
    Valbuena
    Rasmus
    Gomez
    All 3 of these guys are free agents. Is Colby really worth the cash!?? Gomez is obviously gone.... Somebody will throw stupid money at Val. In my opinion, I dont expect to see any of those 3 back next season.

    1B Reed
    2B Altuve
    SS Corrra
    3B Bregman
    C. Castro
    RF Springer
    CF Jake ???
    LF ???
    Marwin
    Gattis (club option)

    What do y'all think on the offensive side? I know it's against what we want, but do we go after a big OF Free Agent?

    Just simple discussion thread for the Stros longterm (not to discount this current season).
     
  2. bobrek

    bobrek Vamos Los Astros

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    First, yes most of us know the Astros have those 3 locked up for a while.

    Of the 3 potential free agents you mentioned, I personally think any of the 3 are equally possible to return. If Gomez continues to play at his recent level, it would not surprise me to see them issue a QO. The Astros are relatively weak in short term outfielders.

    ValBuena's return would be predicated on if they think Reed can handle 1B next year.

    Rasmus is Rasmus. They may QO him again unless they have a plan to obtain another outfielder. Assume for a moment they don't go after Rasmus and Gomez. They would then HAVE to acquire an outfielder or two unless they have a plan to put Bregman in left and re-sign ValBuena.

    It is also worth noting that the Astros have a very good defensive outfield with their current group. They will most likely be worse defensively in the outfield next year.

    For the coming offseason they still need pitching. Now, perhaps Feliz and Musgrove will join the rotation. Their current starters are all solid, but it is difficult to depend on any of them to have a consistent stretch of good pitching.

    And you forgot one other free agent that is pretty important - Castro. As poor as he seems to hit, he is in the upper tier of AL catchers in WAR.
     
  3. kaleidosky

    kaleidosky Contributing Member

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    Yes, well aware on who's locked in. It's baseball, therefore most young guys are locked in regardless. And Altuve has his contract way below market value.

    Generally, I like bob's answer so I won't repeat. But I do think it'll be much easier and more interesting to evaluate all this after the trade deadline. There's a chance Gomez or maybe even Valbuena are gone, and there's a chance a veteran OF or maybe 1B with extra years on his contract comes in. Hard to be sure until we see what happens this month.
     
  4. Rockets Pride

    Rockets Pride Member

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    Appreciate the feedback and love the Astros talk.

    Still got guys like White, Tucker, Kemp, Moran ready to shine.... Who wants it most?
     
  5. Houstunna

    Houstunna Contributing Member

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    Astros are in great position for the next decade.

    Crane will spend if we're good, and Luhnow will continue to mostly draft well.
     
    #5 Houstunna, Jul 10, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2016
  6. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Here are my thoughts by position looking forward:

    Catcher: there are no prospects in the farm that profile as stars and Castro is a pending free agent. He's a good player but under the current format (likely to change) he is probably not worth the ~$16M qualifying offer. I would not be surprised to see Houston go after a catcher at this year's deadline. Lucroy makes a lot of sense as a star player with an additional year of control remaining, who has former teammates (Gomez/Fiers) in Houston and whose current org is run by one of Luhnow's assistants. Norris and Vogt also are likely to be available and make sense for the Astros. The upcoming free agent market is unusually thick at the position, as Weiters and Ramos are borderline star players who will be available in addition to Castro. For now my prediction is that Houston trades for Lucroy or Norris and moves Gattis back to DH. If Castro bolts in free agency the tandem next year will be Gattis and whoever they trade for.

    1B: I think AJ Reed is a good enough prospect to warrant some level of commitment to giving him enough time to adjust to the majors. I think he will bd the everyday 1B at least through August. If he struggles thru then he will be sent down and Valbuena/Marwin will be the 1B. I don't see any star 1B being made available and the cost likely isn't worth it for Houston given they have a potential star in Reed and other viable options in White/Singleton.

    2B/SS: not much worth discussing here as Correa/Altuve have the positions on lock down.

    3B: Bregman looks like a potential superstar and will very likely reach the majors in the next 6 weeks. Until then Valbuena is playing very well and will hold down the fort. Valbuena is like Castro in that he is a good player and would be an everyday 3B for a lot of teams but I don't see him as worth ~$16M.

    OF: Springer has one spot locked down. Gomez is very likely to receive a QO and will bolt. Rasmus will probably not be extended a QO but I could very well see him resigned. There are some interesting younger OF assets in Houstons system. Marisnick has proven himself defensively and is still pretty young. Kemp, Tucker, Teoscar, Aplin, and Fisher are all players of varying floor/ceiling that could be ready for an everyday role by next season. There will be some very good OF available both at the deadline and in free agency. It will be very interesting to see how Houston fills out their outfield next year. If I were GM, I'd stand pat in the OF this season, then reevaluate. For now, I like the idea of a Marisnick/Kemp platoon in CF, with a star brought in for LF. Trade targets could include Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan Braun, Jay Bruce, Cory Dickerson, Brandon Guyer, Desmond Jennings, Kevin Keiermier, Kole Calhoun, Khris Davis, Ender Inciarte, Charlie Blackmon, Melvin Upton, and Matt Kemp. Free agent targets could include Yoenis Cespedes, Carlos Gomez, Colby Rasmus, Dexter Fowler, and others.

    DH/Bench: Gattis will be some combination of the DH and backup catcher. Marwin will fill his same role. The other 2-3 spots will depend on what they do at catcher and in the outfield.

    SP: Keuchel, McHugh, and McCullers are extremely likely to be in the rotation next season. Fiers is a solid if unspectacular BoR SP. Fister is a free agent who is unlikely to warrant a QO, although with his solid performance and the total lack of star power in this year's free agent starting pitcher crop, Houston may take a chance. If there are star pitchers made available via trade, Houston will be in the mix. Potential targets include Sonny Gray, Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, CC Sabathia, Ervin Santana, Matt shoemaker, Julio Teheran, Tyson Ross, and Drew Pomeranz. I don't anticipate more than 1 or 2 of those players actually being made available. Houston has several top prospects knocking on the door in Joe Musgrove, Francis Martes, and David Paulino. Michael Feliz, Chris Devenski, and Brady Rodgers are other potential internal options. My crazy idea is to sign Aroldis Chapman and convert him to starting, paring him with Fiers or Feliz to limit his innings.

    Bullpen: Houstons bullpen has gotten a bad rap, but the talent level is very high and when combined with the depth in AAA it looks like a strength in the long term outlook. Giles, Harris, Gregerson, and Sipp are all likely to be back next season. Devenski and Feliz have been excellent long men and if not in the rotation next season will surely return in that role. I don't think Houston will pick up Neshek's option and replacing him and Feldman with internal options should result in an upgrade considering how good Hoyt, Gustave, Jankowski, Guduan, and others have looked in the minors. There will be quite a few relievers available, and I could see Houston bringing in a 2nd lefty, but otherwise they're set.

    So all that being said, here is my current prediction for the 2017 opening day 40 man roster:

    RF Springer
    3B Bregman
    2B Altuve
    SS Correa
    LF TBD (CarGo, Rasmus?)
    1B Reed
    C TBD (Lucroy, Castro?)
    DH White
    CF Marisnick

    Bench: Gattis, Marwin, Tucker, Kemp

    Rotation: Keuchel, TBD, McCullers, McHugh, Fiers
    Bullpen: Devenski, Feliz, Sipp, Hoyt, Giles, Gregerson, Harris

    On 40 man, optioned to AAA: Stassi, Fontana, Moran, Aplin, Teoscar, Musgrove, Rodgers, Paulino, Hauschild, Frias, Emanuel, Guduan, Jankowski, West, Gustave

    Traded or DFA: Singleton, Duffy, Worth, Peacock, Fields, Chapman

    Free agents: Castro, Valbuena, Rasmus, Gomez (QO), Fister, Feldman, Neshek

    Lost via Rule 5 draft: Grills, Heredia, Holmes
     
  7. Fulgore

    Fulgore Member

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    No way Jake starts in the outfield 2017. As a backup fine but I'm sure they will look to upgrade offensively in the outfield
     
  8. Torn n Frayed

    Torn n Frayed Member

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    I've heard Bregman may play in the outfield and not 3rd since LVB is killing it.
     
  9. bobrek

    bobrek Vamos Los Astros

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    Who is giving the bullpen a bad rap? They still don't have a guy who is a sure-fire, lockdown "100% confidence in" closer, but as a group they have been very good. You may have some yahoos in the game threads ragging on them but who cares what they say. (then again, who cares what I say).
     
  10. the shark

    the shark Member

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    "Crane will spend if we're good"?

    We have NO way of knowing this at this juncture.
     
  11. Scolalist

    Scolalist Member

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    I think/hope this is what the 2017 Astros look like..

    C Castro
    1B Reed
    2B Altuve
    3B Valbuena
    SS Correa
    LF Bregman
    CF Rasmus
    RF Springer

    Bench
    Gattis (C/DH), Gonzalez (IF & LF), Marisnick (OF), Kemp/P Tucker/FA (OF), Worth/Moran/Duffy/FA (IF)

    Rotation
    Keuchel, Fister, McCullers, McHugh, B Rodgers

    Pen
    Giles, Gregerson, Neshek, Feliz, Devenski, Harris, Fiers

    Cut the fat off the 40 man..
    Singleton, Peacock, Fields, Chapman, Sipp

    Round out the 40 man..
    Aplin, Fontana, Stassi, Musgrove, Paulino, T Hernandez, T White, Gustave (36) & whichever top prospects become Rule V eligible or FA's
     
  12. Scolalist

    Scolalist Member

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    I forgot Neshek was a FA & I'd let him walk. There's definately an upgrade in the minors or the free agent market
     
  13. Fulgore

    Fulgore Member

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    Lineup I'm hoping for 2017

    1B- Reed
    2B- Tulve
    3B- Louie V
    Ss- Carlos
    LF- Bregman
    Cf- Fowler
    RF- springer
    C- gattis
    DH- encarnacion

    Springer
    Tulve
    Correra
    Encarnacion
    Fowler
    Bregman
    Louie V
    Gattis
    Reed
     
  14. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Fowler in CF? Why? Gag...
     
  15. Fulgore

    Fulgore Member

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    He's no Andrew Jones but he's decent. Plus he puts another legit bat in our lineup. Good ba and high obp.
     
  16. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    Castro, Valbuena, Rasmus, Gomez, and Fister may all get QOs.
     
  17. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I thought so too initially, but when you really look at what the expected market value will be for each player, only Gomez really makes sense.

    Castro is a ~2 WAR age 30 player with one star season on his resume and a significant injury history. I would be shocked if he was able to get more than 3 years, and an AAV over $13M. He's closer to being QO-worthy than Valbuena and Fister, but I don't think he gets a QO.

    Valbuena is a ~1.5 WAR age 31 player who doesn't have a true star caliber season on his resume. He's not getting more than a 3 year deal and more likely he gets 2 years. How much better is he than Steve Pearce and David Freese? I've pegged him for $8M/yr over 2 years and will be very surprised if he gets a QO (assuming the QO system gets extended in its current form).

    Rasmus accepted a QO last season and hasn't put up a better year and is a year older. He's a good player and can still probably get $30-40M on the open market but I doubt he gets a QO.

    Fister is putting up good numbers but his peripherals are nowhere near what they were in his prime, and he's only getting older. He might get a 2 year deal but he's not getting a QO.

    Gomez will get a QO unless he has a really bad 2nd half. He was once a surefire $100M player so if he plays well for the rest of the season he's getting a QO.
     
  18. sealclubber1016

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    He's been consistently sub-par to terrible throughout his career defensively. Simply doesn't have good range for a CF.

    Good OBP player, seems like a cool dude that's liked by his teammates, but he wants to play CF, when he should be in LF and he would be yet another player that doesn't put the ball in play frequently. I wouldn't mind him on the team in LF, but he's likely to be overpaid given that he's having a career year so far
     
  19. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    Of the players I have listed only Colby will likely accept. The expectation is that the QOs are almost always rejected. Colby taking the QO is the exception that makes the rule.

    BTW the free market value of 2 WAR is what the QO is worth.
     
  20. PavlovsDog

    PavlovsDog Member

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    I see no reason to keep Fontana on the 40 man.
     
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