Can anyone post his article about the Rockets? http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/prev...ollinger-hou-forecast/houston-rockets-outlook Also, does anyone have an idea of where I can find his predictions for win totals for each team in the NBA? Thanks.
Overview It's a house built on spec, basically. Houston has all the assets to make a blockbuster deal, and now it just needs a partner willing to dance with them. They had Pau Gasol, and the league vetoed it. They thought they might have Dwight Howard, and instead the Magic took another offer. Whomever is up next (Chris Paul? Josh Smith?), Houston will certainly be in the conversation. The overarching question is whether they can get one of these deals completed (and, er, approved by the league). Until then, the Rockets are basically collecting as many opportunities as possible to get that player for themselves via other means, from signing Jeremy Lin to trading Kyle Lowry for a lottery pick to littering their own roster with a cross-section of the young and the inexpensive. But the big theme here is that the Rockets are no longer content to tread water in the middle of the Western Conference standings. They'd much rather be very good, obviously, but if they can't do that they'd prefer to be quite bad and build up the youth, draft picks and cap flexibility needed to rebuild a better version of themselves. All of this leaves Kevin McHale in a bit of a bind, as he was brought in for the more immediate goal of pushing last season's squad into the playoffs, something that seemed likely until a sudden, late collapse. Now his task is to form an amorphous blob of a roster into something coherent, develop the kids and make this roster look tempting enough that a star might lobby to join it. In retrospect, Houston probably should have chose this direction sooner, but the hope was that they could still be a playoff team while slowly rebuilding their post-Yao Ming roster. And in the Eastern Conference, they probably would have been. But the Rockets' amazingly bad luck in being a playoff bridesmaid shows no sign of abating. Last year was the third straight season, and fifth since 2000, that the Rockets missed the playoffs despite finishing above .500. In that same time span, it's only happened six times to the league's other 29 teams. 2011-12 Recap The resolute half-goodness of the 2011-12 Houston Rockets is told most tellingly in their team statistics, where they were right at the league average at darned near everything, leaving us with precious little with which to wow you in the way of graphs and charts. Look closer, however, and a few nuggets jump out. First of all, the offense was a huge change from Rick Adelman's system, and you could see the results in the statistics for the guards. Goran Dragic and Kyle Lowry both had the best seasons of their careers in Kevin McHale's point guard-centric approach, which basically involved giving them the ball, running high pick-and-rolls, and letting them go. Meanwhile, Kevin Martin -- who had the highest scoring rate of any shooting guard in the league (yes, including Kobe and Wade) in 2011-12, became something of an afterthought, mostly spotting up and drawing markedly fewer fouls. That showed in the one surprise statistic for Houston -- they were just 28th in free throw rate, averaging .235 tries per field goal attempt, despite employing one of the best foul-drawers in captivity in Martin. The Rockets made up for it in other respects, as they both took and made more 3s than average, and that helped them slightly eclipse the league average overall. Nonetheless, it was a decline from their sixth-best rank with similar personnel in 2010-11. Presumably Jeremy Lin will get them to the line more. If McHale disappointed offensively, he did squeeze more out of the defense. This came with some friction, especially with Lowry, but the Rockets coaxed a league-average season from what, on paper, looked to be some very iffy defensive pairings. Houston's key was cutting off the 3-pointer. The Rockets were fourth in both opponent 3-point frequency and opponent 3-point accuracy; overall only the three elite defenses (Boston, Chicago and Philly) gave up fewer 3-pointers last season. This appears to have been a conscious choice to trade 2s for 3s: Houston was 24th in 2-point defense but had the second-lowest rate of opponent assisted baskets. HOLLINGER'S '11-12 STATS W-L: 34-32 (Pythagorean W-L: 34-32) Offensive Efficiency: 102.8 (12th) Defensive Efficiency: 102.1 (15th) Pace Factor: 94.3 (11th) Highest PER: Marcus Camby (19.6) From a big-picture perspective, the play of the young players was a bit concerning. Chandler Parsons was the exception, proving to be a second-round steal and taking over as the starting small forward. However, first-round pick Marcus Morris couldn't get on the floor, second-year pro Patrick Patterson regressed after a solid rookie year, and Chase Budinger again failed to improve and was traded after the season. Despite all this, Houston looked good until the bitter end. The Rockets were 32-25 and seemingly challenging for a top-six seed, but lost six straight games -- including three at home and one on the road to lowly New Orleans -- to suddenly fall out of contention and miss the playoffs. Offseason Moves Moves? Why, yes, the Rockets made one or two. Kevin Martin, Chandler Parsons and Patrick Patterson are the only rotation players left from last year's team. Expect more -- the Rockets go into training camp with 20 players under contract. Three have non-guaranteed deals (Greg Smith, Diamon Simpson and Courtney Fortson), but at least two others must be cut or traded. Traded Kyle Lowry to Toronto for Gary Forbes and a future first-round pick: Lowry had a breakout year in Houston and has one of the league's most cap-friendly contracts, so the Rockets decided to sell high and get a likely future lottery pick. Houston creatively protected the pick on the low side, so that if it's anywhere from 15 to 30 it pushes to the next year -- the first time we've seen a team do this. In doing so, the Rockets basically guarantee themselves a lottery pick from Toronto at some point in the next half-decade. This pick is likely to be the centerpiece of any potential trade Houston puts together for its elusive superstar, although the Raptors are likely to be juuuust good enough that it lands around 10th in 2013. Let Goran Dragic go, signed Jeremy Lin for three years, $25.2 million: Obviously it's a gamble letting both point guards walk, but Houston left a pretty good plan B for itself by using the "Gilbert Arenas rule" to devise an offer sheet that would have whacked the Knicks financially in the third year. In doing so, they became the rare team to have an offer sheet go unmatched. This wasn't just a case of spending for spending's sake either. Lin's talents seemingly translate very well to McHale's system, given the success that Lowry and Dragic had a year ago, so he may be a bargain even at this price. Similarly, Houston seems to have made a calculated risk that McHale's system was making the previous two point guards look better than they were, and thereby overvalued in the market. Signed Omer Asik for three years, $25.2 million: Houston went big with the rest of its free-agent bucks, again targeting a team with luxury tax issues via the Arenas rule. Asik is a poor offensive player, but defensively he's among the best in basketball. The Rockets have been soft at that end since Yao's injury woes began, although Sam Dalembert papered over some of those problems a year ago, but Asik should solidify the interior defense right away. Let's just say he'll get plenty of chances to guard the rim given all the kids at the other spots. Traded Sam Dalembert to Milwaukee for Jon Leuer, Shaun Livingston and Jon Brockman and swap of first-round picks: A cap move by the Rockets that also moved them up two spots in the 2012 draft, the main point here was to clear Dalembert's contract. They also netted Livingston, however, who is likely to be the backup point guard and should provide decent value. Leuer was waived and Brockman is likely to follow, as he appears to be the 13th-string power forward. Traded Chase Budinger to Minnesota for a 2012 first-round pick: Budinger has one of the best contracts in basketball, but the Rockets dropped him because he was about to become an unrestricted free agent and paying him in the summer of 2013 might have blocked other moves that are more palatable. So Houston essentially did what a lot of smart teams do in this situation: They reset the clock for three years by getting another player (Terrence Jones) on a rookie contract. Drafted Terrence Jones, Jeremy Lamb, Royce White and Furkan Aldemir: Houston ended up with three first-round picks and got good value with all three picks. (Aldemir, the late second-rounder, is a talented Turkish big man, but an overseas stash pick who reportedly may be reluctant to play in the U.S.). Signed Donatas Motiejunas. Houston's 2011 first-rounder had a solid year in his native Lithuania. He's another player who is probably more comfortable at the 4, but may need to play some 5 this year to get on the floor. He's not physical at all, but a high skill guy who can shoot and handle. Signed-and-traded Courtney Lee to Boston for JaJuan Johnson, Sean Williams, E'Twaun Moore and rights to Jon Diebler: Lee wasn't in Houston's plans after they drafted Lamb, so they converted him into more assets by obtaining 2011 first-rounder Johnson and limited sharpshooter Diebler in a three-way deal with Boston and Portland. Williams and Moore had non-guaranteed contracts and were waived. Signed-and-traded Marcus Camby to New York for Toney Douglas, Jerome Jordan, Josh Harrellson, two second-round picks and cash: Similar to the Lee deal above, the Rockets got assets for a player who wasn't in their plans -- in this case second-rounders from New York in 2014 and 2015. The Knicks sent money to pay Douglas' contract, and the other two players had non-guaranteed deals and were waived. Signed Carlos Delfino for two years, $6 million: The second year of this deal is non-guaranteed and one suspects the Rockets will either waive or trade Delfino after the season. In the meantime, he provides something of a stopgap as a wing defender and 3-point shooter, but his play tailed off sharply last season so it's not clear how much help he'll provide. From Houston's perspective, his primary value was his willingness to play on what's effectively a one-year deal and not mess up their cap planning. 2012-13 Outlook I'll give you two predictions. First, Lin will be the real deal. In this system, with the point guard as the focus, he will thrive just as he did during the heights of Linsanity under Mike D'Antoni. And despite scouts' misgivings about some of his weaknesses, Lin simply does too many high-value things (drawing fouls, assisting at the rim, steals and rebounds) to not be an effective player. Unfortunately, he won't have much help. Asik will provide a nice backstop defensively but provide little scoring, and the kids are a year or two away from being able to contribute enough to make a substantial difference. About the one potential positive factor would be a return of the 2010-11 Martin, but that would likely require the Rockets to revert to Rick Adelman's offense and take the ball out of Lin's hands more. In fact, it's more likely that Martin is traded at some point and the Rockets just go all-in with Lin on offense. Unfortunately, there's just not enough else to justify a lofty prediction for this team. The Rockets have six players from the past two drafts that are likely to get meaningful playing time, and the assorted role players on hand (Delfino, Livingston, Forbes) don't have the kind of pedigree that suggests they'll make much impact on the standings. The only two players who project to have a PER better than the league average are Martin and Lin; while Asik is also likely a net positive due to his defense, that still leaves Houston a few players short unless a couple of the kids greatly outperform expectations. Stranger things have happened, of course, but this is not the way to bet. Prediction: 27-55, 5th in Southwest, tied for 13th in Western Conference
I think Hollinger is pretty spot on here and it shows how unlucky the Rockets have been in trying to stay afloat while rebuilding. In hindsight, a lot of people including myself wish we would've faced the reality of starting over either with or without Yao but you can't fault Leslie for trying to have a winning team on the court every year.
I saw an article recently mentioning the Rockets having 18 wins as a projection (or a thread), anyone still have the link?
Had some very bad luck in recent years, but I think the Rockets are a great organization. (This is from an outsider looking in.)
I think it sounds about right. What I fear though is that Martin, Delfino, and Livingston will get minutes and drive our win total up. This year needs to be about evaluating our young talent and finding out who can play at the NBA level and who can't. We are going to have draft picks next year and we need to know how to use them. I'm afraid McHale is going to be more concerned about wins and less concerned about seeing what the young guys can do. I'm not saying the rookies should be getting big minutes at the beginning of the season. But, I would like to see them worked into the rotation as the season plays out, even if it means fewer wins.
As long as the kids look good and we aren't winning a whole lot... I am A-Okay. A season of moral victories.
I think you are the first person in the history of history to worry about Delfino and Livingston causing a team to win too many games.
This team is bad. It's sad when I get nostalgic for the Francis years because at least then I could hope for that feel-good moment of a guard dunking on Jahidi White. Royce White got on the plane doesn't feel like that big of a victory and I'm someone that has anxiety about flying.
Better, possibly. WAY better? I highly doubt it. History tells us that when your team is mostly rookies you'll get your head pounded in. Similarly, history tells us that even very VETERAN teams can take almost an entire season to fully Gel to their capability. Toss in that players with less than 3 seasons under their belts are traditionally erratic, and I think that estimations of 25-30 or 30-35 wins are not far fetched at all. OKC took multiple seasons WITH KD, Westbrook AND Sefilosha on the roster before they got their first 35 win season. Basketball is like alot of jobs. Guys who are fresh out of college, regardless of talent, have ALOT to learn, will make ALOT of mistakes, and will be inconsistent in their quality of work. It's very rare for a player with less than 3 years to play at an all star level, and that's even true of many hall of famers. With a team this young it's often better to enjoy their development and enjoy the glimpses of potential than it is to get your hopes too high and crash into reality.
They played make believe, the same way Drayton did with the Astros. Drayton got crucified for it. I'm not willing to give Les a pass on it either. They chose poorly, and I'm reasonably certain that was his decision entirely...it's why I don't hold Morey responsible for that.
27 wins gets us into the conversation for a top five pick, but look at the difference between 26 and 27 victories. Huge. This is why I want Martin gone. Now. Sucking should begin in Nov not at the trade deadline. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_NBA_Draft
