Can someone explain this madness to me? How in the world does this project us going 34-30 for the rest of the season and finish 8th in the west? I don't think there's any bias here by the Playoff Odd "simulation", so what kind of metrics do they use? http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds
I think it is all based on simulations, so obviously it is all computer calculated. Not really sure why people get all wrapped up in projections, but I guess it is something to talk about. I think it is fair to say that the Rockets have been overachieving without Dwight, but that's basketball. They'll have their peaks and valleys this year.
it's based on computer simulations of games played. given that 3/5's of our starting lineup is out - if you were to simulate games based on the lack of stats from our backups, we always lose. regardless of our record - look for this to change significantly when we get back howard. predictive analytics is a load of crap.
it's not a tumor..... I mean formula well, it is and it isn't. the simulations play a larger factor though.
Hollinger is an entertainer. He's not a real statistical expert. Memphis wasted half a season away because of this bozo.
The odds are updated on a nightly basis and get more accurate as the season progresses. For example there are 4 teams it predicts that can go 72-10 at best and even 76-6 for GSW and 75-7 for Toronto! Its just a program, chill
The Rockets have played a very soft schedule so far, and while they have won, their average scoring margin have not been great. Scoring margin and strength of schedule are to big factors accounted for in Hollinger's formula so it is not surprising that HOU is ranked low so far. A few wins vs. the tougher teams will change this. A big part of this is with multiple rotation guys out with injuries of course, but Hollinger's formula, like most "power ranking" formulas, do not account for how a team's future lineups may look different than their lineups so far (whether due to return from injuries, more future injuries or addition/subtraction made by trade). Just look at where OKC is ranked right now if you want an even more extreme example. I am pretty sure a reasonable person don't think they are gong to be a doormat team the rest of the season, right?
show me the reasonable people on this board. there's a guy who hates morey because he traded his pet to land a star there's a group who thinks james harden is overrated and would never improve there's a group who doesn't understand the impact big Papa is having there's a group who doesn't understand analytics there's a group who thinks they're insiders but they aren't there's a group who thinks they board should only be populated by 99rs so outside of a few pragamatic practical posters who are definitely in the minority - where is the reasonable person you speak of?
People keep hating on the Rockets and we just keep on winning eventually the media will respect us if we keep winning.
What I do not understand is why even put out something like this so early in the season when it is obviously very wrong? It's not just the Rockets projections that are messed up. The Thunder should have a better seeding by the end of the year as well.
It is a computer algorithm that has not been updated since Hollinger left. Functioning on a small sample size. It will gradually correct itself once more data is available. If I remember correctly, at the end of last season the Rockets were fifth.
